OK, I promise I didn’t already know about Johan Santana’s forthcoming season-ending surgery when I argued earlier that the Mets should be looking for pitching help this offseason.
But the fact is this’ll make three straight years with surgery for Santana, and though he finished strong and his peripherals started picking up near the end of this campaign, it’s foolish to expect he’ll be fully healthy for all of 2011. He could be, of course, but he’ll be a 32-year-old pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm and a bunch of surgeries on his chart.
We’ll get back to this a billion times this offseason and there’s a bunch of interesting baseball to be played between now and then. Plus we’ll have a better sense of the market, of who’s available, of what Dillon Gee looks like across a few more Major League starts, how much public sentiment there’s going to be clamoring for Jenrry Mejia and everything else.
This doesn’t matter much for the 2010 Mets because nothing has mattered much for the 2010 Mets for a while, which is why we get all caught up in off-field nonsense, politics, media criticism, armchair psychoanalysis and everything else.
This matters for the 2011 Mets, though, and the 2012 and 2013 Mets too. The club owes Santana $77.5 million over the next three seasons, according to Cots, and if he’s not pitching for any prolonged stretch of that it makes Luis Castillo’s contract look like a bargain.
Sorry if I sound gloomy. Maybe the news will seem better when we have more of it.
I feel gloomy too. I believe that the velocity drop Santana has faced has been in part due to the damage that surgery causes and muscle a trophy and all that. I was looking forward to him having a quiet healing layoff and bouncing back stronger next year.
At least he went out on a high note this year. Last year he started developing bad habits, so hopefully he doesn’t have to unlearn that next year?
I think it does ramp up the need for the Mets to find a pitcher, but what they need to do is try to find the guy they can give reasonable money to that’ll be an R.A. Dickey surprise in 2011. Not throw crazy money at guys like Cliff Lee that has a huge risk should he get hurt like Santana.
My prediction? Pain. That an lots of Luis Castillo bargains in the future. This does not sound good. Last guy to get this kind of surgery was Kelvim Escobar.