Rebuilding the bullpen will be a tough nut for Andrew Friedman, but I don’t mean to be overly blasé about that when I say that bullpens come and bullpens go and the Rays have just as much of a chance of having a good one next year with a new cast as they do having it fall apart altogether—there is very little science in the collection of relievers.The Rays have pitchers in their system, including hard-throwing Tommy John recovery case Jake McGee (who can start but made it up to the pen this year) and can probably cobble something together out of minor leaguers and inexpensive free agents.

That leaves the arbitration-eligible players, whom the team might chose to non-tender rather than risk going to the mats. Jason Bartlett, B.J. Upton, and Matt Garza are due for insta-raises this winter. Reid Brignac, a better offensive and defensive player, can replace Bartlett without the team suffering at all. Losing Garza would hurt, but if the team can deal James Shields, that would leave some room to absorb his increased salary and slip the promising Jeremy Hellickson into the rotation. Failing that, Hellickson replaces Garza and the team prays for a Shields recovery.

– Steven Goldman, Pinstriped Bible.

Goldman makes a series of great points here about the Rays’ chances of competing again next year, most notably: That they probably will. Carlos Pena, like he points out, appears eminently replaceable. They’ll need to revamp their bullpen, but Goldman argues the case I’ve made here at least a dozen times — bullpens are fickle, and good ones can be constructed of flotsam.

The big loss, obviously, is Carl Crawford, an excellent player coming off a career year. The Rays will look to replace him with Desmond Jennings, a top prospect unlikely to produce anywhere near Crawford’s level for at least a couple of seasons.

The Rays might make up the difference by improving in the starting rotation, though, with top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson ready to replace one of their five starters, former top pitching prospect Jake McGee waiting in the wings, and pending top pitching prospect Matthew Moore primed to move quickly after striking out 12.9 batters per nine innings in High A ball.

The interesting thing about that for Mets fans is that the Rays will very likely part ways with one starter or another this offseason. Goldman suggests they might either non-tender Garza to save money or trade Shields.

Though I have no idea what it would take to get either — Garza in free agency or Shields via trade — the Mets’ next GM should be intrigued by whichever pitcher becomes available. Both are still reasonably young and both are dependable for 200+ innings, and both should stand to benefit from leaving the AL East.