Matt Cerrone brought up the Ike Davis-for-Prince Fielder debate that I touched on nearly a month ago, and now debate over whether the Mets should make that deal (should it even become available to them) is spreading through the blogosphere.
Here’s your answer: No.
That’s not because Davis is currently a better player than Fielder or because I believe Davis will certainly be a better player than Fielder soon. Fielder is one of the league’s best hitters, and the Mets should be thrilled if Davis ever puts up an offensive season as good as the one Fielder posted in a down year in 2010.
Davis can boast superior defense and a body that appears better suited to long-term success, which mitigates the difference between the two players at least a little. But Fielder now has four years’ worth of evidence to show he is a great offensive player and is still only 26, so he’s a reasonably safe bet to continue being one of the league’s better power hitters into the latter part of this decade. Davis, coming off one season of just below league-average production for a first baseman, offers no such assurance.
It comes down to money.
Fielder is entering his final year of arbitration, meaning any team that acquires him will likely work to sign him to a contract extension at market rate, like the Mets did when they got Johan Santana.
I have no idea what it will cost to extend Fielder’s contract, but it won’t be cheap. Ryan Howard will earn $25 million a season from 2012-16. Mark Teixeira will get $22.5 until 2016. Miguel Cabrera — $19 mil and change through 2015.
Even if Fielder doesn’t command quite as much as his fellow young, slugging first basemen, he’ll inevitably require a hefty chunk of the acquiring team’s payroll for the multiple years.
Davis, meanwhile, won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2012 season. If he continues improving, the Mets could look to buy out his arbitration years — a deal that would still likely be favorable to the team and well, well below what it would require to extend Fielder. Keeping Davis instead of trading for and extending Fielder would probably save the Mets at least $10 million a season in payroll into the second half of the decade, money that could be allocated toward free-agent signings that could more than make up the difference between the two players.
Throw in that Davis is, as mentioned, a much better defensive player and quite likely to improve, since he came to Flushing in 2010 with only 42 plate appearances above Double-A ball, and trading him for Fielder doesn’t even seem like a topic worth debating.
The final sticking point is that there remains some reasonable chance that Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez hit the open market next winter. Since the Mets’ chances of contention in 2011 appear long anyway, it seems crazy to dispatch one of their most valuable cogs in a trade now when they may be able to find an upgrade for only money next offseason, dangling Davis as trade bait then or forcing his once-discussed move to right field.
Tedquarters 
Why is anyone talking about trading Ike Davis? Until they trade Beltran, there should be a moratorium on trades.
Maybe I’m wrong Ted, but it seems like the only people talking about this trade are you and Cerrone. The Mets are clearly more than one Prince Fielder away from sustainable contention, and Mets fans seem to really like Ike. Are the radio shows harping on getting Fielder or something? It obviously (cough Mo Vaughn cough) seems like a pretty bad idea.
Why do so many people think the mets contending in 2011 (particularly for the WC) is less likely than a Beatles reunion tour?
Yes, it will require some guys staying healthy and/or having seasons at least approaching career norms, with one or 2 guys having “big” years.
IOW, exactly what it takes for all the other flawed teams (braves, padres, Rox, Dodgers) to make the playoffs!
And the Mets do have a lot of talent on the roster.
So, I don’t see it being that far fetched that this team, with new leadership (and whatever layers the new GM brings in) can add ~10 wins in 2011. Putting them smack in the middle of the WC hunt.
Guaranteed? No. Probable? maybe not. Reasonably possible? Absolutely.
If nothing else, keep in mind the August/September 2010 team is not what will be playing next April. So if you are going to write off the 201 team, shouldn’t you at least wait to see what it is first?
I wouldn’t say the Wild Card hunt is out of the question, but you must admit that, given the amount of uncertainty going into 2011, it would be silly to make moves that hamstring the team in the future for the benefit of next season.
except I can’t see them doing the deal without an extension in place (like halladay and santana). so in that case, it would be with the intent to improve the chances for 2011, and beyond too.
True, but my point is that it wouldn’t actually improve them.
oh yeah, the point of that rant (relative to the post) is that Fielder having a big year certainly ups the probablility of making a run.
While hamstringing the team to be able to make such runs at any point beyond 2011.
The more interesting question impacting Ike Davis is the future of David Wright and his apparent defensive shortcomings. Can Wright stick at 3rd?
Ike/Prince is a fun discussion because they represent positive commodities in very different ways. Fielder, or more to the point trading for and signing him long term, represents a method of doing business that hasn’t worked for the Mets recently.
Davis, and again keeping him rather then spinning him off for someone like Fielder, represent a different approach that some people (me included) feel is the right way for this team in this park to be successful in a sustainable way.
I wouldn’t get too hung up on the specific players, who would never be swapped straight up anyway. The idea/discussion behind it is bigger then that.
Clearly the Mets need to be improved, but is 1B really the Mets glaring weakness? I’d start with 2B and the starting rotation.
Get a major league second baseman and a couple of decent arms, and there is no reason why this team can’t compete for the wildcard next year.
Ted, I know I haven’t been a true voice on your website with my posts, but you need to stop talking to cerrone and crap like that is why I do not care for his work. What a tool. Why is this even put into writing. You should block all questions and theories on why the Mets should trade Ike Davis, Omar is gone, hopefully the next GM (which should be you, Ted) will not make stupid moves like the ones Omar has made.
I have to agree with you here, Ted. I don’t know what I would do with this “I Like Ike” shirt if we traded him.