Optimistic Mets fans everywhere, this one included, spent all day Sunday considering the symbolic value of Ryan Howard’s caught-looking strikeout that ended the Phillies’ 2010 World Series hopes. “Just like Beltran,” we said, hoping Howard and the hated Phils would suffer the same fate Beltran and the Mets did after the 2006 NLCS.
The Situations were far from identical, of course. The Phillies won the World Series in 2008 and got back there in 2009. Howard earned the love of the Philadelphia fanbase with three home runs in that series, and — though these things can turn quickly — probably will not soon suffer the same nonsensical and misdirected hostility from the fans and media that Beltran endured.
Many Mets fans tend to overrate the Phillies’ intangibles (underrating at the same time their very-tangibles). The Phillies have been the bad guys in the N.L. East for four seasons now, so we look at them like they’re 25 T-1000s, ignoring their humanity and trumpeting their apparent inability to be destroyed, citing their arrogance and their will and their remarkable capacity to overcome injuries.
But no team is invincible in a five- or seven-game series, and though Brian Wilson hardly cast the Phillies into a vat of molten steel, that 3-2 slider on the low-outside corner reminded everyone that the Phillies might not be so mighty after all, and inspired columns like this one and this one examining wounds in their mechanism that might not heal themselves instantly.
(OK, enough of that metaphor. </terminator2>, if you will.)
Truth is, the Phillies will still have Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels at the front of their rotation next year, and a trio that good makes them unlikely to collapse completely. And if we — me — here at TedQuarters are unwilling to accept that Beltran and the Mets became magically unclutch and weak-willed upon the Wainwright curveball, we must recognize that the same will be true for the Phillies.
But since we’re in a celebratory mood, we can look down the road with rose-colored glasses on and find more important similarities between those Mets and these Phillies.
Those Mets locked up a ton of payroll in some longterm deals that rendered them financially inflexible. These Phillies already have $143 million spent for 2011 and and $89 million committed to seven players in 2012. Both clubs thinned their organizational ranks with a series of trades aimed to help at the Major League level. Injuries, you already know, took their toll on those Mets teams. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, both on the long side of 30, both missed time with injury this year.
So though it’s probably silly to expect the Phillies to fall apart as dramatically as the Mets did in 2009, it is certainly reasonable to expect that they won’t be able to dominate the division much longer.
The Braves, I am concerned, could be a problem.
Tedquarters 
Living in the Philly area, so seeing the local news (TV and papers), it is interesting that many people here are really concerned that this is an indication of the start of the descent, not just a minor bump on the road to a dynasty.
And this is an overall old team, with much of the age locked up for quite a while. and of the big 4 that carried them the last few years, Werth likely is gone, Rollins has become brittle (and not very good at hitting when he is playing), and Utley is aging like a Met 2B on the wrong side of 30 (with what appears to be a chronic bad hip).
ANd even Howard is not producing like he used to.
So, this team is quite possibly going to be trying to ride the top 3 of the rotation next year. And even 2 of those 3 are getting pretty long in the tooth, and pitched a lot of innings this year. So, not entirely without risk.
If Halladay can’t keep this level of performance up, or Oswalt’s back flares up, look out.
So, they are not likely to be the 2009 Mets (but could hapen). But, real good chance they ae closer to the 2007 or 2008 versions.
Just hard to see them going mid-upper 90s in wins again next year.
What’s incredible is that–in the wake of this NLCS–Philly fans seem almost irrationally angry at Howard as Mets fans have been with Beltran since Wainwright’s curveball broke. What’s more, I think by the end of his enormous contract, Phillies fans will be treating Howard with even more insane hostility than that with which Mets fans shower Carlos.
I think it is a longshot to assume that the Phillies are going to go into decline–they were the best team in baseball this year, and have a truly beastly starting pitching staff. I will be genuinely surprised if they don’t win their 5th consecutive division title next year, though I agree that the Braves are at this point almost as much of a threat.