Hat tip to Joe Budd at Amazin’ Avenue for pointing out this Mets’ Top 20 prospects list from poster Chris in Ga at MetsGeek.
It’s clearly a well-researched list and a good read for Mets fans like myself that might not be so familiar with some of the Mets’ younger prospects.
For prospects lists like this one, I’ve learned not to pick nits with specific designations — who’s No.3 and who’s No. 7 — because creating a list like this one requires a ton of educated guesswork and because there are so many factors that can affect a player’s development. Really, I like reading this stuff for the information more than the rankings.
But I do have one quibble with the methodology here, though: He ranks a bunch of pitchers who haven’t shown much in the Minors over Mark Cohoon, a lefty who, at 21, acquitted himself nicely in Double-A after a midseason jump from Savannah.
I recognize that Cohoon’s raw stuff is not as impressive as that of the pitchers who made the list, but since pitching prospects are so fickle, I would generally opt for results and durability at upper Minor League levels over high ceilings and projectability.
Kyle Allen and Eric Goeddel might have more impressive arms, but Cohoon is the one who rocked a 4:1 K:BB ratio while staying healthy enough to throw 161 1/3 innings across two levels in 2010. Maybe he has a lower ceiling, but I’d guess he has a much higher floor.
I’ll add that I’m biased toward Cohoon because I’ve spoken with him a couple of times and he seemed like an extremely bright guy who’s very dedicated to his craft. Granted, perhaps the same is true of all the dudes who made the list. Either way, it strikes me that it’s worth something.
Tedquarters 
I think the projection or potential is important but only to an extent. Regarding someone like Cohoon or players with his skill set or projection, I really do feel there IS value in stable guys who can be 4th or 5th starters.
Nothing worse than those $8 million back end guys like Jeff Suppan and Kyle Lohse.
Yeah, I have to disagree with you on this. Not that your overall statement is wrong, but I think Cohoon’s high floor is probably still lower than you think. Perfect example is Yusmeiro Petit, who at age 20 in 2005 put up a 6.0 K:BB across AA and AAA (so, younger than Cohoon, better performance than Cohoon, and higher level than Cohoon). Across 230 ML innings, his K:BB is 2.35. His xFIP is 4.80, which is not so bad, but there’s reason to thing that guys who have inferior stuff actually *do* get hit harder than other MLB pitchers.
Cohoon’s mid-80s fastball is definitely not enough to get by in the majors, so he’d need to have pretty nasty secondary stuff. I know he has great command, so that’s better than nothing, but MLB hitters can hit a curve or changeup if it’s not a particularly good one.
Cohoon’s story is great, but it seems like he’s dominating based largely on maturity. Once he’s in a league where everyone’s mature, it’s hard to see that holding up.
I definitely get that argument, but do you know if Cohoon’s fastball is mid-80s or high 80s? Obviously that sounds like picking nits, but most of what i’ve read about him has said 87-90, and there are a handful of lefties who get by with that type of velocity and good command. I’m not saying he could be Mark Buehrle, but guys on the next tiers down certainly provide a lot of value without a ton of firepower.
I got the mid-80s line from Toby: http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/06/17/on-mark-cohoon/
Also, I had forgotten that Cohoon was a lefty. It’s at least theoretically possible that could help.
I think really the key, and this is something I have no ability to answer, is how much of his success comes from his secondary stuff being legitimately good (i.e. does his curve move, is his change really deceptive) and how much is just good command. I worry that minor leaguers mostly can’t hit even a middling curve or change if they’re on the corner, but major leaguers can.
No doubt, he’s an interesting guy, and if he turns out to be a useful major leaguer, I wouldn’t be totally shocked just because he’s performed so well in the minors. It’s more just that his ceiling is, I think we’d agree, not very high, and there’s still a very good chance he ends up doing nothing of note, in spite of the performance in AA. I think his absolute ceiling is Jamie Moyer, which is nothing to sneeze at, but a more likely upside scenario is Glendon Rusch. That’s useful, but I’m not sure that’s a very good prospect.
I also think if, say Goeddel or Allen were on another team, you’d have a hard time getting them in a trade if all you offered was Cohoon.
Ah ha. Toby saw a ton of Cohoon this year in Savannah so he’d probably know better than Sickels or Adam Rubin, who had him at 87-90.
Ted,
First off, thank you for taking your time reading the article I posted on Metsgeek then posting a link from your blog to the article.
I have not personally gotten the chance to meet Mark but I hear from others he is just a great guy. He was left off my top 20 because of what Seth pointed out so thoroughly in his post. Mark has a better chance of making it to the majors than a lot of guys on my list but the physical projection is very limited compared to others on the list, with the exception of the final two choices. The most thought went into the last two selections and he appeared on preliminary versions of my list.
Mark has a tremendous work ethic. Just like Josh Satin (a position player with limited tools who works his butt off), I will not bet against these types from making it to the big leagues. Hopefully other prospects see his work ethic and apply it to their own development.
I didn’t compare Cohoon to Kyle Allen or Eric Goeddel. I thoroughly believe, if healthy, Kyle Allen would have been one of the stud prospects in our system on this list. I saw signs of a kid maturing before my eyes at the end of 2009 and some of my contacts told me his stock skyrocketed in instructs after the 09 season. They say his injury will not have any long term affects on his long term health so hopefully he can regain his momentum. As for Goeddel, I think his slider is the best slider in our organization from some of the video I saw on him earlier this year. I hope to see him in person this season.