A conversation about Matt Cain

Interesting read for baseball nerds. Dave Cameron and Rory Paap try to investigate why Matt Cain consistently outperforms his peripheral numbers. If you’ll recall, I struggle a bit with xFIP. I have no doubt that most pitchers’ HR/FB rates will normalize over time, but I’m unwilling to go all-in on the idea that no pitcher can consistently yield weak fly-ball contact. Also, I wonder if the organizational angle that Cameron and Paap seem to settle on would also pertain to the A’s. I think it’s eminently reasonable to consider that the nerds in Major League front offices and dugouts could be a step ahead of us nerds on the Internet on this one.

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