Deuces wild

The Mets’ strong offensive performance with two outs to date this season comes up a lot, but the numbers are often presented without context. So here’s some:

The Mets have scored 67 of their 118 runs with two outs. That’s not typical, though I don’t know that it’s meaningful either.

Generally, the league as a whole scores just under 38 percent of its runs with two outs, about 38.5 percent with one out, and by far the fewest of its runs with no outs (which makes sense). There’s some variation every year, and the numbers are close enough that it’s not at all uncommon for a team to score more runs with two outs than it did with one out (the Mets did last year, for example, and the National League as a whole did in 2008).

It does seem weird for a team to score 56.8 percent of its runs with two outs, as the Mets have to date in 2012, but since it doesn’t appear the Mets are doing anything appreciably different with two outs than they are with one out or no outs, I’d guess it’s just a heaping helping of early-season randomness. And part of it certainly has to do with how bad they’ve been with one out — hitting to a .618 OPS, well below their .707 team rate. That’ll even out, and when it does, the two-out stats won’t seem so extraordinary.

Want more weirdness? The Braves have scored 50.6 percent of their runs with one out. Why? Randomness. Sorry, but it’s going to take a hell of an explanation to convince me otherwise.

But if the randomness thing doesn’t satisfy you as an explanation for the Mets’ two-out heroics, try spreading this around and hope it catches on: The Mets never attempt sacrifice bunts with two outs, so they score lots of runs.

 

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