In an e-mail, reader Jim makes a good point:

One semi-obvious thing to keep in mind in the fifth-starter competition: Every year the Mets (and most other teams) have a de facto six-man rotation.

In 2009, Mets had 10 pitchers who made starts. All 10 made at least 5 starts.

That was not really an exception.

In 2008, Mets had 11 pitchers making starts. Six made five starts or more.

2007: 12 starters. Eight of them made five starts or more.

2006: 13 starters. 10 made five starts or more.

2005: 12 starters. Eight made at least five starts.

Every year there are 15 to 25 starts that will not be made by the pitchers in the five-man rotation.

It’s true, and so it’s a bit silly to fret too much about who will win the fifth starter’s job, since the rotation will ultimately change multiple times during the year.

That said, another semi-obvious point is that any team should want to get as many starts as possible from the best starters it has, and so it should spend Spring Training assessing exactly who those guys are.

And I guess the bottom line is that throughout the season, the team should be using its five best healthy arms in its rotation, which seems simple enough.

As a fan, I’m rooting for Jon Niese to crack the squad because I favor young, homegrown talent and I think Niese is an underrated prospect with a lot of upside.

But if Niese fails to distinguish himself as decidedly better than alternatives like Nelson Figueroa and Fernando Nieve, he probably shouldn’t be given the benefit of the doubt, if only because he can be sent back to the Minors without having to clear waivers and neither Figueroa or Nieve can.

Since the Mets will inevitably need another starter at some point, Niese could hone his game in Buffalo until that happens.

Of course, if Niese does show his manager and coaches that he’s markedly better than the competition, there’s no question he should open the year on the staff. He’s 23 and he’s had plenty of experience in the high Minors, so no reason to hold him back, since he inarguably has the most upside of any of the rotation candidates.

As for Hisanori Takahashi: I know he’s looked awesome in his Spring Training outings, and I know the Mets don’t think he profiles as a lefty specialist, but if he’s going to be on the big-league club, I think it should probably be in a bullpen role.

But while I’m no scout, I have a sneaking suspicion he’s been so effective in Grapefruit League play because of the hesitation in the middle of delivery. I’m guessing that’s the type of thing that would be difficult for a batter to time when he first sees it, but that he might be able to adjust to the second or third time facing Takahashi in a game. Again, not an informed opinion — just a hunch.

But if Takahashi can keep deceiving hitters and throwing strikes, he’d make a nice fit for a relief role, perhaps throwing multiple innings at a time.

I think Figueroa could handle that too, of course, and Takahashi — like Niese — could go to Buffalo without being passed through waivers.

So filling out the last few spots on the staff will take some careful handling from Omar Minaya and his crew. They must identify the pitchers who will best help the club in April, but take care not to risk losing the ones who might help them in June just to carry a couple who might not be appreciably better.

So John Maine had a crappy outing Grapefruit League outing yesterday, providing everybody everywhere with reason to remember John Maine.

Maine, I think, often gets lost among Ollie Perez and Mike Pelfrey in discussions of the questions in the Mets’ rotation. We talk about the Good Ollie and the Bad Ollie and whether or not Pelfrey is crazy or just the victim of the horrible defense behind him, and Maine’s sort of forgotten, with the assumption that he’ll be pretty good if he’s fully healthy, and that he may never really be fully healthy.

I was a guest on The Happy Recap Radio yesterday and we discussed Maine a bit. The knock on Maine has always seemed to be his stamina, and so I speculated that if it didn’t appear to be working out for him as a starter, he could thrive in a bullpen role. He’s got a good fastball that’s a very effective offering for him in the past, and I figure if he could dial it up a notch in shorter bursts, he could be a pretty great setup man.

It’s funny, then, that it turns out Maine chalked up his rough outing yesterday to entering the game as a reliever. To his credit, it’s not something he’s had a whole lot of practice doing — Maine has made 216 starts in college and professional ball and only seven relief appearances. (And despite that, Maine has gone on record with his choice of closer music, one of the best reasons to like John Maine.)

Anyway, the THR guys and I also discussed Maine’s injury issues the last couple of years. I wondered on the show if Maine flourished under Rick Peterson, reputed as an expert in keeping pitchers healthy through sound mechanics.

I did a little investigating this morning to see if there have been any marked differences in Maine under Dan Warthen. I used June 17, 2008 as an end date, which I realize is a bit arbitrary since obviously it’s not like Maine completely shifted to all of Warthen’s philosophies the day Warthen took over.

Anyway, here are Maine’s lines with the Mets before and after the Tuscan tile replaced the hardwood floor.

Under Peterson: 362.3 IP, 154 ER, 321 K, 142 BB, 46 HR, 3.83 ERA, 4.25 FIP

Under Warthen: 140 IP, 70 ER, 107 K, 71 BB, 16 HR, 4.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP

What does that mean? Hard to tell. The biggest difference is that Maine was a lot better at staying on the mound under Peterson, but I’m unwilling to chalk that all up to the change in pitching coaches.

Pitchers get hurt, after all, and Maine could have been well along the path to injury by the time Warthen replaced Peterson. Since the differences in FIP aren’t massive, it’s likely the Maine’s uptick in ERA is more the product of some bad luck and terrible defense, not to mention the shoulder injury.

Of course, the Warthen/Jerry Manuel team, while paired with the Mets’ front office, hasn’t done a lot to inspire confidence that it can successfully coach players back from injury.

The grand conclusion? I’ve got none, other than that Maine was good enough in 2007 and when healthy in 2008 — and heck, in his final few starts after returning from injury in 2009 — that he’s certainly earned the benefit of the doubt for 2010. One Spring Training outing shouldn’t ever change anything.

I have a couple of posts I was hoping to get done this weekend but it doesn’t look like either will be finished today, so instead, read Brian Costa’s profile of Jenrry Mejia. It’s fascinating:

“I didn’t like baseball,” Mejia said. “I just wanted to make money.”

Only after Mejia turned 15 did he begin playing baseball, a decision fueled not by some newfound love of the game but by the same ruthless pragmatism that caused him to eschew it in the first place.

When Pedro Martinez signed a four-year, $53 million contract with the Mets in late 2004, Mejia realized what so many other teenagers in the Dominican Republic already knew: For the talented and lucky few, baseball is a way out.

Whoa. A lot to process here. First, and I recognize that this isn’t exactly breaking news, what does it say about the conditions in the Dominican Republic if Jenrry Mejia developed Major League dreams because they were relatively practical? I abandoned my Major League dreams because they were so impractical. (Also because I sucked.)

And it’s actually kind of refreshing to hear Mejia say that straight up, I suppose, and to read a feel-good story baseball story that doesn’t involve any treacle about some kid’s unyielding love for the game.

But the most interesting thing about the piece, I think, is the implication that Mejia only even took up baseball because the Mets signed Pedro to that big contract. I know we’ve heard a whole lot about how that deal improved the Mets’ standing with Latin American prospects, but here’s some concrete evidence of it.

Really takes the sting off Pedro’s final two injury-prone seasons with the Mets, doesn’t it? Jeez. If Mejia turns out half as good as people seem to think he will (and the Mets don’t screw it up somehow), Pedro’s contract becomes a steal in some bizarre way, like a gift that keeps on giving.

So that’s cool. I’m a big fan of the man, as you may know, and so here’s hoping Mejia can help Mets fans remember him in a more positive light.

Adam Rubin reports that Jerry Manuel “appears to prefer” going with 20-year-old Ruben Tejada over Alex Cora in Jose Reyes’ stead.

Though Rubin’s usually on top of these things, it’s just a report and so I don’t want to overreact. And I’m bored of killing Omar Minaya for signing Alex Cora to the deal he did when he did.

But if that’s true, that means that this offseason, coming off a season in which their starting shortstop got hurt, the Mets signed a backup shortstop that their own manager was not comfortable starting if their starting shortstop got hurt.

One more time: If that’s true, that means that this offseason, coming off a season in which their starting shortstop got hurt, the Mets signed a backup shortstop that their own manager was not comfortable starting if their starting shortstop got hurt.

I suppose that’s slightly overstating the case. For all I know, Manuel’s perfectly comfortable starting Cora and just happens to think Tejada’s great.

That’s a stretch, though, considering Tejada didn’t exactly light the world on first at Double-A last year, and he’s 20, and…

You know what? Screw it. No more on the Great Alex Cora Debate until the season starts, I promise. I’m certain you’ve already made up your mind on the matter anyway.