Category Archives: Baseball

From the bad ideas department

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Imperfect circumstances call for creative solutions, and in recent weeks the Mets have kicked around many ideas for 2012. In that spirit, a well-placed front office source said it is “a possibility” that the Mets will move Jason Bay to center field next year.

That remains far from likely, the source said, but its consideration is interesting in what it reveals about the Mets’ view of three players: Bay, Daniel Murphy and Angel Pagan….

As for Bay’s defense, advanced metrics and scouts agree that he is a good left fielder — but the scouts say that center could be challenging for him. One metric, defensive runs saved, rates Bay as the National League’s third-best left fielder, with two runs saved.

– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

What? No.

Moving Jason Bay to center field is an idea so crazy it’s almost surreal — and not “crazy” as in “just crazy enough to work.” It’s just crazy enough to fail triumphantly.

For the last two seasons, Angel Pagan has been better than Jason Bay in just about every facet of the game. Pagan is a better fielder, a better hitter and a better baserunner. The only conceivable reason to replace Pagan with Bay would be if the team were desperate to save the $5 million or so Pagan will likely earn in arbitration. And even then they’d probably be better off with someone else in center, be it Jason Pridie or Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Scott Hairston or whoever.

Would moving Bay to center field help salvage his contract? No. While the offensive standards for center fielders are lower than they are for left fielders (though center fielders have outhit left fielders in 2011), Bay’s defense in center would likely be so awful that it would render him worthless.

If the Mets believe Murphy is a better option in left field than Bay in 2012, they should simply bench Bay. Moving him to the more difficult defensive position to somehow justify his poor hitting would… man, it makes my head hurt almost as much as the thought of an outfield manned by Murphy, Bay and Lucas Duda.

As for that one advanced defensive metric: Advanced defensive metrics kind of suck. They’re better than the other defensive metrics and they’re the best tool we have to try to objectively rate defenders, but a single-year’s worth of any of them means very little. They fluctuate too wildly. The same defensive metric cited above, defensive runs saved, put Bay at zero or less than zero in each of the past four seasons and has him at -12 for his career. Unless he magically got better in the outfield at age 32, his decent total in the stat this year is likely the product of randomness.

Fun fact: One advanced defensive metric, UZR, ranks Carlos Lee sixth among Major League left fielders with at least 500 innings in the position in 2011. Actually, according to defensive runs saved, Lee has been a much better defender than Bay this year. Presumably the Astros are considering moving Carlos Lee to center field next season.

I should probably ignore outlandish stories centered around ideas deemed “far from likely.” They’re obvious blogger-bait, and reacting to them only perpetuates the absurdity. But then everyone involved is looking for something to write about, and sometimes silly ideas help beat writers and bloggers both push the proverbial peanut.

So how about this? The Mets will consider moving Daniel Murphy to shortstop. It’s not going to happen… but it could!

Next year

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The Mets will inevitably make a bunch of moves, major and/or minor, before they break camp next April. But out of curiosity, I took a look at the players under team control for 2012.

Obviously there’ll be a ton of turnover at the fringes of the roster, and possibly a certain shortstop returning to the fold. But even if Sandy Alderson decides to Rip Van Winkle the offseason, the 2012 Mets should again score a lot of runs. With Ike Davis returning to first base, David Wright at third, Daniel Murphy somewhere and a host of decent if unspectacular hitters through the rest of the lineup, the club will likely boast another deep offense capable of maintaining rallies.

But one thing came up on the podcast last week: How long can the Mets keep carrying Jason Bay as an everyday corner outfielder? Can they really enter 2012 with a left fielder coming off two seasons like the ones Bay has suffered with the Mets?

Even this year, Bay has hit lefties well. The righty half of a left-field platoon is certainly not worth what Bay will be paid, but of course Bay will get his $18 million regardless of how he’s used. The Mets have a slew of Major League ready and near-ready lefty bats without obvious positions on next year’s club: Murphy and Lucas Duda already producing at the Major League level, and Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis in Triple-A.

Even if one of those guys emerges as the team’s regular right fielder, would the Mets be best served using another to split time with Bay in left? In between injuries, Martinez posted an .836 OPS against righties in Buffalo. Before shoulder surgery ended his season, Nieuwenhuis rocked a .986 mark in the split. Duda has mashed Major League righties to the tune of an .823 OPS in his short career, and Murphy a .793. As a point of comparison, Bay has a .579 OPS against righties in 2011.

Granted, none of those guys has established that he can be a Major League hitter as good as Bay was from 2004 to 2009, so the top priority should always be getting Bay straightened out and hoping he returns to something like his old form. But if that doesn’t happen and the Mets still want to be winning as many games as possible, they’d likely benefit from choosing a lefty to share at-bats in left field in 2012.

The Mets’ front office showed no fear of cutting bait on sunk costs last spring, but Bay is set to make as much as Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez combined and can likely still provide the team some value in a limited role. But if he’s inked in as an everyday starter for 2012, Bay looks like a pretty big hole in an otherwise solid lineup as long as he keeps performing (or not performing) like this.

LOLMets OMG amirite

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A pack of junkyard dogs is roaming the sidewalks surrounding Citi Field, menacing visitors as they exit the ballpark.

“They came at me like a locomotive,” Elaine Feerick said, describing her encounter this month with a 70-pound pit bull and a shepherd mix “that looked like a wolf.”

It’s too bad the nine on the field don’t play nearly as aggressively as the canines outside, the beleaguered Met fan said.

“My friend, who’s terrified of dogs, ran for her life faster than I’ve ever seen her run before,” Feerick said. “I stood there and the pit bull rammed into me like a battering ram — amazingly, I did not go down.”

– Amber Sutherland and Jeremy Olshan, N.Y. Post.

This might be the New York Postiest article on record. It turns out “pack of junkyard dogs… menacing visitors” refers to one time one dog ran into one lady.

It’s all just a particularly silly salvo in the war between the people who like to make fun of the Mets and the people who like to make fun of those people.

Classless Mets subject sensitive poet to hurricane

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The Mets placed Scott Hairston on the disabled list and called up 40-year-old pitcher Miguel Batista, who also writes poetry and detective fiction.

They also announced that the games on Saturday and Sunday are postponed, so if we don’t see Batista tonight, we won’t until at least Monday. No word yet on whether Batista will ultimately start in Jon Niese’s place, or if he believes he can find inspiration in the forthcoming hurricane.

Meanwhile, judging by the general panic level out on the streets of Manhattan, Metro-North is going to be a nightmare this afternoon. So I’m going to go get on that. You stay wherever you are and keep clicking around on this site. Maybe print out some classic TedQuarters material to read by candlelight if you lose power.