Adjusted bullpen odds

With Oliver Perez, Boof Bonser, Ryota Igarashi and Taylor Tankersley now out of the bidding and mixed reports coming out today about Jason Isringhausen’s health, I am adjusting the odds I set for the Mets’ bullpen hopefuls last week.

Based on Rubin’s report linked above and just about everything else I’ve read, I’m going to now assume that Taylor Buchholz and Tim Byrdak, barring injury, join Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell and D.J. Carrasco as definites on the roster. That leaves, by my count, six dudes competing for two jobs. They are:

Pedro Beato (1:1): Beato was at 1:1 last time I did this and hasn’t done much to change his standing. His small-sample Grapefruit League performance hasn’t been dominant, but it hasn’t been atrocious either and he’s still 24 with a lively fastball and a ticket back to the Orioles if the Mets can’t find a spot for him on the 25-man roster.

Jason Isringhausen (1:1): Isringhausen slips to even-money due to the injury talk. By the Mets’ accounts he’s still in the mix, but hearing a pop in your elbow when you’re 38 and already a veteran of multiple arm surgeries is not a promising sign. If he’s healthy he’s probably still in, but it’s looking a lot less likely he’ll be healthy. And at some point the Mets will have to question — if they haven’t already — if they’ll want to lose Beato or risk Pat Misch and Manny Acosta on waivers to keep around a guy with so much mileage on his arm that could get hurt at any time.

Manny Acosta (2:1): Acosta has been pretty good, if a bit wild, in Grapefruit League action. Gun to my head (and based on very limited information), if I needed to pick one of them to pitch an important late inning in April, I’d probably take Acosta over Beato. Luckily no one’s holding a gun to my head and I don’t make those decisions, because Beato probably offers more long-term upside than Acosta.

Pat Misch (2:1): Pat Misch has been perfectly Pat Mischy in 16 2/3 Spring Training innings: Good control, not a lot of strikeouts, hit kind of hard but not terrible. He benefits by being left-handed and versatile. Also, his middle name is Theodore, which is my middle name too.

Mike O’Connor (5:1): O’Connor’s odds are long because he can be sent to the Minor Leagues without going through waivers. It’s hard to imagine a situation wherein the Mets are so eager to keep O’Connor around for April that they’re willing to give up one of the four guys above him on this list. His odds are better than Blaine Boyer’s because he is left-handed.

Blaine Boyer (9:1): Though Boyer has been good in limited Grapefruit League action, he is a hard-throwing right-hander like Beato and Acosta, and unlike Beato and Acosta he can be sent to Triple-A. I’d say his best chance for making the team now would be a rash of injuries. We’ll probably see Boyer in Queens at some point in the middle of the season.

The field (14:1): The field’s odds get a little better, mostly to make the math work out. But there has been some player movement lately, so this includes the off chance the Mets pick up someone from waivers or on a Minor League deal that they’re convinced is better than the in-house options.

Exit Oliver Perez

According to just about everyone, the Mets have released Oliver Perez. So you can exhale.

I hate to say I told you so.

The decision brought about celebration in even the most contrarian corners of the fanbase. The universally reviled Perez, he of the 6.81 ERA in 112 innings since signing that lucrative three-year contract, is gone. We will suffer no more of his meltdowns. He has hurdled over the foul line into Mets’ history.

There’s really not much else to say. But I’ll add that though the Mets-fan part of me is warmed by the news — more proof that the new front-office is willing to cut bait on sunk costs and compile the best possible roster regardless of contractual nonsense — some other part of me sees it as at least a little bit sad. I got at this before, a couple weeks ago.

I know no one’s eager to pity a guy who is about to make $12 million this year for doing absolutely nothing. But Oliver Perez is 29. He has been playing baseball professionally since he was 17. He has lost his fastball. What must it be like to have the body that took you to such heights stop cooperating? What does Ollie do now?

Mets release Luis Castillo

So there’s that.

Predictably, the news was met with a ton of backlash from Mets fans and media, because just about everything everywhere is met with backlash. Mike Nickeas could cure cancer tomorrow and fans would wonder why he wasn’t working on learning the pitching staff.

I mean, we’re talking about the same Luis Castillo here, right? The guy we’ve been hoping to see released for years? Boo-is Castillo?

This is a good thing. For one, it demonstrates with certainty the new front office’s willingness to cut bait on sunk costs and its ability to convince ownership to do so when necessary.

Many will and have said already that it was a move prompted by perception more than baseball. And as Sandy Alderson said, perception certainly played a role in the decision. But have we all forgotten that Castillo hasn’t been good for several seasons?

It’s true that we don’t know yet if Brad Emaus or Daniel Murphy or Justin Turner can handle the rigors of playing second base every day in the Major Leagues. But we already knew that Luis Castillo couldn’t, right? I mean, the worst thing that can happen is the Mets end up with a crappy second baseman who is not Castillo. The upside to keeping him around was the chance the Mets would end up with a crappy second baseman who was Castillo.

This is what we (and by we, of course, I mean me) wanted: A front office willing to move on from bad contracts and put faith in untested younger players when the veterans in the position have already proven incapable. Hell, this is what I’ve been bleating on about for years. Since no single month’s worth of Spring Training at-bats will prove an adequate sample to assess the younger second-base candidates in Mets’ camp, the team will give at least one of them the opportunity to prove his merit in real games against Major League pitching.

Good. Maybe he will turn out to be a worthwhile cost-controlled contributor to the next contending Mets team, whenever that might come. Castillo was not that guy.

All that said, I kind of liked Castillo. I half-joked before last season that he was my favorite Major Leaguer because of his one remaining outlying skill, the amazing plate discipline that gave him a unique ability to consistently get on base without any appreciable power.

And I don’t think he always got a fair shake from Mets fans. Yes, he wasn’t very good. Yes, he once dropped a pop-up. But like many players, he took a ton of flak for a contract that he would have been crazy not to sign. That’s Omar Minaya’s fault, not Castillo’s.

Since we’re on the topic, and because several readers emailed me about it this morning, I should mention Andy Martino’s column today suggesting that Mets fans dislike Castillo, among other reasons, because he’s Hispanic.

I don’t think that’s the case; I’m pretty sure Mets fans disliked Castillo because he was paid a lot and wasn’t very good at baseball. But it’s hard to argue that race has no bearing at all on the way baseball players are perceived among some segments of the fanbase and, for that matter, the media.

At Amazin’ Avenue, Matthew Callan wrote something pretty similar to what I planned to write before Castillo got cut. I have heard plenty of fans call Castillo lazy and repeatedly question his work ethic and attitude, and I’m not sure he’d necessarily get the same treatment if he were a white guy.

Playing through pain and with limited physical ability are the two of the hallmarks of players often deemed scrappy, gritty hustlers, and Castillo certainly did both of those things and never seemed to benefit from that distinction. Still, I wonder if it had as much to do with his countenance as his race; Castillo’s face, no matter his mood, seemed locked in a sort of perma-scowl, and from the comforts of our living rooms we are all phrenologists and body-language experts.

Anyway, we can blissfully ignore that hot-button issue for the moment. Castillo is no longer a Met, and in his place the team will turn to someone younger that still has a chance — slim, maybe — to be better.

Matt den Dekker catapults up Mets’ top prospect list

Center fielder Matt den Dekker landed at No. 28 on Toby Hyde’s Top 41 prospects list this year, but he just catapulted himself to the top spot around these parts. Here’s how:

Well that’s just exceptionally clever. Right down to using @UpperDekker as a Twitter handle.

We talked to den Dekker at the Mets’ Minor League complex a couple weeks ago for a video bit that’ll roll out sometime in the future, but he didn’t bring up Arrested Development. I did ask him about this catch, though.

Something actually happens: Mets cut guys

The Mets cut eight players today. Adam Rubin has the unofficial list.

No big surprises here. Dillon Gee heads to Buffalo, securing Chris Capuano’s spot as the fifth starter. Ryota Igarashi, Boof Bonser and Taylor Tankersley were three of the four longest shots in my Mets bullpen odds post, and I don’t think anyone ever seriously figured Jason Pridie, Russ Adams, Raul Chavez or Dusty Ryan for opening the season with the big-league club. In fact, depending on how the Major League roster shakes out I’m not even certain any of those guys will be everyday players in Buffalo.

The bigger news, I suppose, is the guys that weren’t cut: Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo hang on, but more importantly to this blog at this moment, our horse in the second-base race Justin Turner gets to stick around for at least another day or two. It seemed a fait accompli — at least among the team’s beat writers — that Turner would be cut this morning.

I imagine some fans and nearly all media will find it frustrating that the team hasn’t yet pared down the second-base competition, but, well, whatever. Stepping back from it, I’d rather the assorted decision-makers take their time and make the right choice than haphazardly stick Luis Hernandez in the spot because he has looked good over the past week.

So we beat on, etc.

A number of people have pointed out to me, incidentally, that since Brad Emaus is a Rule 5 guy and Turner has options, the Mets should keep Emaus around and extend his audition into the season, knowing they have Turner stashed in Triple-A as a fallback option.

I don’t think that’s a terrible plan. My case for Turner is only that his Triple-A stats from 2010 are, due to park and league factors, more impressive than Emaus’, and it doesn’t seem like most Mets fans appreciate that.

Twitter Q&A-style product

Something to do to keep me working and not just sitting at my desk watching basketball all day:

Nuts? No. Optimistic? Probably.

I’ve liked Young since he was a stalwart for the Gary (Indiana) Templetons, my old fantasy team, in 2004. But his fastball averaged under 85 mph last year and the reports this spring have him in a similar range. He still has time to build up arm strength, but it’s hard to imagine a righty with that type of velocity and his standard 50-percent flyball rate being able to keep the ball in the park — even if it’s Citi Field — as often as Young did in his four-start stint at the end of 2010.

Still, success would not be unprecedented. Fellow righty Livan Hernandez enjoyed a decent season in 2010 while throwing an average fastballs below 84 mph. But Young has the additional hurdle in his injury history. He’s supposedly a smart pitcher and a great competitor, for whatever those are worth. (NOTE: This paragraph originally said Ted Lilly was also a soft-tossing righty. But he is a soft-tossing lefty who just got jumbled up in my head.)

Of course, speculating if Young will be the second-best pitcher on the Mets begs the question: Who will be the best pitcher on the Mets? Based on 2010, you’d have to say Dickey. But awesome though he is and with all the caveats about being relatively knew to the knuckler, Dickey only has one good season under his belt. Mike Pelfrey probably is who he is at this point: A decent but unspectacular innings-eater. Jon Niese should improve off his rookie season. To me, it’s hard to pick a clear favorite.

I have never been to In-N-Out. In fact, I have been to 40 of the 50 states, but never California. I hope to rectify both at some point this year.

That said, I’d probably say Five Guys is the best burger chain. McDonald’s is basically the definition of replacement-level: passable, inexpensive, available. White Castle I happen to love, but I know that’s a controversial stance. Plus those don’t even count as burgers to me. They’re White Castle burgers, and that’s a whole different thing.

Burger King is the worst. I recognize there’s a chance I’m biased because of a couple of particularly bad Burger Kings — most notably the atrocious one in Farmingdale, N.Y. near where my band used to practice — but every time I eat there I feel sick. Grosses me out, and I have a pretty strong stomach for these things (See: the Taco Bell tab).

There are some regional burger chains that need to be considered, though. The butter-belt staple Culver’s serves some pretty amazing burgers. And Good Times, in Colorado, is one of the best fast food places I’ve ever enjoyed.

Honestly, it’s surprisingly easy now that I feel like the team is actually being run with the goal of sustainable success in mind. And I know there’s a lot of doom-and-gloom fire-sale stuff in the papers, but I’ll believe the Mets will be forced to trade David Wright to cut payroll when I see them trade David Wright to cut payroll.

I think baseball allows most fans a healthy dose of optimism, even while remaining grounded in reality. Hell, look what happened last year: The Giants, with a lineup full of old-ass men who were never even that great to begin with, won the World Series. Yeah, they had great pitching. They also had a ton of little things fall their way. That happens sometimes.

Doesn’t mean, of course, that a team shouldn’t position itself as best it can by putting together the best possible roster. It looks like the Mets (fingers crossed) are trying to do that, hanging on to young players, managing for the near- and long-term, paying attention to the margins. On paper, are they good enough to win it all? Not really. But were the Giants last March? Were the Cardinals in 2006?

So yeah, right now I’m still holding out hope for a surprise playoff appearance. When that doesn’t happen, I’ll fall back on productive seasons from the young players that now appear to be part of the team’s next core group.

All the damn time. I’ve even spoken to a literary agent a couple of times. The biggest hold-up is I can’t come up with a suitable topic that would sustain my interest for the length of time it would require to write a book. For first-time and relatively unknown authors, publishing houses want ideas that are guaranteed to sell — the type of thing you’d get your dad on father’s day 2013. All my ideas are a bit too spacy, it seems. And I don’t want to write a book about something that doesn’t really interest me just for the sake of writing a book. I’m still thinking, though.

The other problem is I currently hunch in front of a computer all day for work. And I’ve got some pretty heavy back and neck issues. Though I’m vain as anything and I’d love to see my name on a book jacket, it’s hard to imagine coming home from work and getting right back in front of a computer for several more hours. That’s what my TV is for.

I’d put my money down on Beltran still. As frustrating as it is to follow along with the outfielder’s seemingly very slow rehab process, Santana is so far off and shoulder surgery is so very tough for pitchers to come back from. Fun fact: I’m the one who set the April 21 over-under that Matt Cerrone used for MetsBlog. It was a total guess, but it’s my total guess.