OK, looks like this deal is done, and also spun and analyzed in every which way. But for posterity, here’s some more:
The Phillies get Roy Oswalt and $11 million toward his salary. The Astros get J.A. (sometimes Jay) Happ and prospects Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar. I’ll ignore for now that the Astros turned around and dealt Gose to the Blue Jays. I’m not really concerned with the Astros’ haul so much as with how the deal benefits the Phillies, since that more directly affects the Mets.
Oswalt is a better pitcher than Happ and so the Phillies are undoubtedly upgraded in the short term. And Oswalt will still be good next year. Though he has shown some signs of age, he has been among the better or best pitchers in the National League since he debuted in 2001 and has remained mostly healthy. He is a safe bet to be a productive member of a now extremely strong Phillies rotation in 2011.
Happ appears to have been a bit lucky to have so much success at the Major League level, but I think he’s gotten a bit of a rough shake from some analysts. Yes, he has far outperformed his FIP, tERA and xFIP in the bigs. But he did strike out more than a batter an inning (albeit while perpetually old for his level) in the Minors. If I had to guess, I’d assume his peripherals improve a bit with more experience, mitigating to some extent his regression. That’s if he can stay healthy, which is no sure thing.
All I know about the prospects is that both are very far off from the bigs and neither has done much so far in the Minors. Keith Law ranked Gose the Phillies’ fourth-best prospect before the season.
Everyone keeps calling the deal a massive win for the Phillies and it’s hard to argue that. But the bright side I’ll point out is this one: Though the Phillies will wind up paying below market value for Oswalt next season, they’re now on the hook for $143.728 million in 2011, according to Cots MLB Contracts.
I have no idea what the Phillies’ phinances are like, but that’s more than they’ve ever spent in a season before. They’re not set lose a whole lot of contributors — Jayson Werth is the only impending free agent that stands out — but they’ll have to fill out their roster somehow. And as Twitterer Chris Guzy points out, they’ve been trading a lot of prospects lately.
Maybe I’m desperate to find the bright side in this deal for Mets fans, but that money thing — I think that’s important. I write about sustainability for the Mets all the time, and unless the Phillies secretly have unlimited funds, the principles should be no different in the City of Brotherly Intentional Vomiting. They’ve got a whole lot of money committed to players on the long side of 30 and they’ve been very liberal about parting with prospects. They’ll likely still be good next year, but it’s not really a recipe for longterm success.
Here’s what commenter SwannaintSeaver wrote: