Twitter Q&A thing

I doubt it. I think the Mets’ lack of moves means mostly that they don’t have a ton of payroll flexibility (which comes as no surprise at this point) and that they’re waiting to see which players slip through the cracks and can be obtained on the cheap.

Plus — and more importantly — it’s still only December, and they appear pretty much set in their lineup. The role-player type of guys they definitely still need to add usually find homes in the coming months. Last year they signed both Willie Harris and Scott Hairston in late January. They could use a starting pitcher to hedge against injuries and ineffectiveness, but given the going rate I imagine they’ll stand pat for a while and see if there’s one left in the bargain bin in a month or two.

I don’t think there’s any sense in the Mets’ pushing any young players into Major League action before it’s clear they can contribute at the level. Though as fans, we get excited and impatient for prospects when there doesn’t appear to be much hope for contention from the big-league club, it’s important to remember that the Minor Leagues exist for a reason. Players need to learn and grow physically and mentally against lesser competition before they’re ready to face the studs we watch 162 times a year. Plus, teams control their young players for only a limited time, and advancing a promising prospect to the Majors early could cost a club a couple of years of a player’s prime.

Obviously it’s a case by case thing: A guy like Kirk Nieuwenhuis who’s already 24 and has 83 games’ worth of Triple-A experience is a lot more likely to be given the benefit of the doubt if he looks awesome in Spring Training than Matt Harvey or Jeurys Familia. But I’ve seen fans unironically suggest the Mets “just go for” a full-blown youth movement by traiding David Wright and inserting Wilmer Flores at third base, and that’s absurd.

Plus, not for nothing, the Mets already have a bunch of young players in important roles. Right now they’ve got relatively young players slated for catcher, first base, shortstop, right field and two rotation slots.

I was not aware until right now, but apparently Colin Quinn is just straight-up antagonizing people on Twitter, tweeting about how great he is at everything and how stupid football is — stuff like that. Then he retweets all the nasty replies he gets. Pretty solid trolling, and a good way to make use of a well-followed Twitter account.

My issue with it is that I’ve never found Colin Quinn funny in any way. All a matter of taste, of course, and part of it is clearly bias: I loved Norm MacDonald so much that I was bound to hate whoever replaced him as the Weekend Update anchor on Saturday Night Live. But truth is, I liked Kevin Nealon a lot too and I eventually warmed up to MacDonald.

Never happened with Quinn, at least in part because I never once laughed at anything he said. Maybe it’s all some sort of large-scale trolling performance? It seems like other comedians really like Quinn, so maybe behind the scenes he’s hilarious and he’s playing some massive joke on everyone. If he landed a gig on Saturday Night Live as part of that, then that’s pretty awesome.

But I doubt it. This is a longer discussion, but I’ve always found that when looking at abstract art that doesn’t appear particularly skillful, I find it easier to grasp if I learn that the artist was once an adept portraitist who abandoned traditional methods to start painting with his ass or whatever. So if I knew Colin Quinn to be funny in the first place, I’d have no trouble finding this trolling hilarious.

I assume he wants to take a below-market deal to return to the Mets because he’s so grateful for the way he was treated by the fans, the media and the team on the last go ’round. Right? Right?

 

Barry Bonds isn’t going to jail

Just put yourself in our shoes when you get a second. Or in the shoes of Cardinals fans or Cubs fans. When 40,000 people get out of their chairs in Milwaukee next April and give Ryan Braun a standing ovation, don’t just assume that they’re all bleating goats who will chew on whatever tin cans they’re fed. This stuff’s complicated. Being a passionate fan of anything messes with your brain chemistry. That’s what made my brain spam me with feel-good chemicals after Bonds got off with a slap of the wrist. When I think of Bonds, I think about some of the fondest memories baseball has ever given me. Around these parts, that will give him a pass for an awful lot over the rest of his life, even if you can’t understand that.

Grant Brisbee, McCoveyChronicles.com.

First: The frequency with which I’ve found myself linking to Brisbee’s posts lately suggests to me he’s having a hell of an offseason. Go click through and read this whole thing; it’s awesome.

Second: I’d guess every baseball fan in the country who came of age in the last 15-20 years feels for some now-tainted (or at least suspected) player the way Brisbee does for Bonds. Mine’s Mark McGwire, among others.

I strongly disagree with 61% of you

I’m kind of surprised by the results of the earlier poll. As of right now, 61% of you would not trade Jon Niese for Gio Gonzalez. I voted “yes,” and I figured most of you would — in fact I thought it seemed like such a no-brainer I questioned whether I should even bother posting the poll. I hope the post itself didn’t sway any votes. If I were Sandy Alderson and that deal was on the table, I would trade Niese for Gonzalez before Billy Beane even had a chance to hang up and consult with Jonah Hill.

And yeah, though Niese’s xFIP and FIP might show signs that he could be better than Gonzalez, he just hasn’t been better than Gonzalez — or really anything close. He has been kind of bad and Gonzalez has been kind of awesome. I know there’s a lot to suggest they’ll both come back toward the middle, but I find it hard to believe they’ll cross. If that’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP, then… well, actually yes: That’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP.

And beyond that, what puts Gonzalez over the top is that he’s thrown 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. Niese’s injuries have been reasonably minor and trying to figure out which healthy pitcher is more likely to get hurt is silly, but I’ll take the guy who has started off his career showing the durability that Gonzalez has.

Just asking

Before I get into this, I should note that I put about as much stock in recent rumors that the Mets are “in on Gio Gonzalez” as I do in any offseason trade rumors, which is to say basically none.

I bring it up only because it calls to light a reasonably interesting question about our faith in certain advanced stats, especially when comparing Gonzalez to Jon Niese, also the subject of nebulous recent trade rumors.

Spend some time with Niese’s Fangraphs and baseball-reference pages and Gonzalez’s entries on the same sites.

Both pitchers throw left-handed. Gonzalez is a year older than Niese and has pitched 71 2/3 more innings over the past two seasons. Both are set for free agency after the 2015 season, but Gonzalez has Super 2 status, meaning he is eligible for arbitration a year earlier than Niese (ie this season) and should collect substantially more money over the course of the next four seasons if both stay healthy.

(How much more money is very hard to say, both because it’s so difficult to assume pitchers will stay healthy and because, as you will see below, it’s not necessarily safe to assume both will continue performing the way they have so far. Also because I suck at this. But I’m guessing about $15 million more over the length of the contract? Anyone?)

Gonzalez has far outpaced Niese in terms of results the last two seasons. He posted a cumulative 129 ERA+ to Niese’s 89 and finished in the top 10 in the American League in the stat both years.

But by many rate stats, Niese has been just as good if not better than Gonzalez. Gonzalez strikes out a few more batters, but Niese has a way better strikeout to walk ratio. Niese has yielded a slightly higher ground-ball rate across his career but has fallen victim to (or, depending on whom you ask, been the perpetrator of) a much higher batting average on balls in play. Both pitch their home games in parks known for suppressing home runs, but Gonzalez has allowed fewer home runs per fly ball over the past two seasons.

All that adds up to mean that though Gonzalez has pitched to a much better ERA and ERA+ over the past two seasons, Niese has had a better xFIP both years and boasts a lower career FIP.

I have no doubt where I stand on this one, but I’ve tried to stay neutral in presenting the above facts because I don’t want to sway you. Keep in mind the distinctions in likely salary and recent injury history. Pure hypothetical:

[poll id=”47″]

 

I don’t think you’re getting it: The man’s first name and the English second-person pronoun are homophones

According to widespread headline puns, the Blue Jays entered the winning bid for the rights to negotiate a contract with Yu Darvish.

If that’s true, it’s cool. I had been planning on rooting for Darvish, and the Jays are an eminently likable team, what with a) their new (old) uniforms, b) their smart-seeming front office, c) their uphill battle in the AL East, d) their drunk fans, and mostly e) their Jose Bautista.

I linked Eno Sarris’ analysis of Darvish’s NPB stats earlier this week, but I wanted to make a larger (and perhaps less coherent) point about them.

I wonder if there’s some form of diminishing returns in pitcher dominance due to the nature of pitching. You have to throw strikes to get guys out, and guys are sometimes going to swing at pitches in the zone, and every so often they’re going to make contact, and every so often a batted ball is going to fall in for a hit.

You won’t find many full seasons in modern-era Major League Baseball in which a pitcher posts an ERA better than the 1.50-1.80 range or a WHIP lower than about 0.85. There are a couple of exceptions (Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968 and Pedro Martinez’s 0.737 WHIP in 1999, basically), but I’d say those marks represent the absolute best a pitcher could ever hope to do given the amount of control he has over the results after the ball leaves his hand.

And it seems worth noting because Darvish has been right around those marks for five straight seasons now in Japan. So I wonder if it’s pointless to say, “Oh well his NPB stats are X% better than Daisuke Matsusaka’s and XX% better than Hideo Nomo’s so we can extrapolate that to mean he’ll be this much better than them stateside” because Darvish has been essentially pitching right up against the ceiling of dominance, and for all we know he’s like 30 times better than Matsusaka.

Does that make any sense? I guess it’d be important to know how often anyone has bettered or matched Darvish’s recent run of awesomeness in Japan, if ever.

Not that the above oversimplified extrapolation is what Eno did, at all, or anything like anything I’ve seen anyone do (though certainly someone has done it somewhere). I’m just saying there’s no reason to expect Darvish to disappoint just because at least one other big-name Japanese import fell short of expectations, if not for the obvious sample-size thing then because it might be impossible for Darvish to have consistently performed any better than he did over his last five seasons in Japan.

In other words, I’m holding on to the slim possibility he’ll exceed expectations. How cool would that be?

Projecting Lucas Duda

Mike Salfino looks at some comps for our new hero after his first part-season of regular big-league work and likes the return. I’ll throw in that a quick survey of the guys listed shows that few of them flashed the type of power that Duda did in the high Minors. Ryan Howard’s numbers, somewhat predictably, demolish everyone else’s. But if you’ll recall, Howard spent a couple of seasons stuck behind Ol’ Jim Jam in the Phillies’ system.

This happened

When I brought it up on the Podcast, you hear me first suggest Luis Castillo hit a home run into Citi Field’s second deck in left field, then take it back because I couldn’t believe my own memory. But it’s true: This actually happened. It was 2009, so I don’t think I recognized how special it was at the time. How many home runs have been hit into the second deck in left field total?

Huge hat tip to Joe.

New Mostly Mets Podcast

Because you love minutiae and didn’t get enough of it in that Chuck James post earlier. With Toby and Patrick:

On iTunes here.

Rundown:
01:30 – Voicemail.
— Torres has ADHD
— $ on MLB backups
Email
11:00 – Carlos Beltran Checks In
13:30 – Are Relievers the market inefficiency?
20:15 – Power and Ruben Tejada
Twitter Qs
28:00 – Rauch & Danny Ray Cartoon
32:00 – Over/Under for Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ Arrival
39:00 – Getting Back to contention quickly
42:00 – What’s in your gift basket?
50:30 – Breakfast sandwich meats
58:00 – Obligatory Ronny Paulino discussion/Also money