Bullpen picture clearing up

Isringhausen, 38, had been against the idea, but he told the Mets he would consider the possibility. He has said he will not pitch in Class AAA once the season starts.

The Mets have also discussed the idea of asking another right-handed reliever, Blaine Boyer, to accept a minor league assignment. He has an opt-out in his contract that would allow him to become a free agent if the Mets do not put him on the 25-man roster.

David Waldstein, N.Y. Times.

Waldstein’s report seems to jive with something I wrote last week: Yes, Boyer has an opt-out, but if the team is confident he will accept an assignment to Triple-A instead of taking the out, the Mets are probably best served keeping Manny Acosta on the roster and stashing Boyer in Buffalo until they inevitably need a bullpen arm. Though Boyer has enjoyed an impressive spring, Acosta has been a more effective pitcher across his career. If the team can figure a way to keep both pitchers, it should.

Sure sounds from this report like the Mets are doing everything they can to keep as many viable Major League options in house as possible, a process that never seemed to go smoothly on Omar Minaya’s watch. If Isringhausen is willing to stick around in extended Spring Training, the Mets may yet be able to hold on to all the pitchers once competing for bullpen roles (except Oliver Perez, of course) while keeping Bobby Parnell in the big-league setup job he has rightfully earned.

But we shall see.

Airborne

I am flying right now. I will land in West Palm Beach in the late afternoon then drive to Port St. Lucie.

I hoped to have the first-base preview done by now but it isn’t. I ate a chili dog instead. My apologies. I regret nothing.

Once again, I’d love to hear what you’d like to read from the Mets’ last two days in Port St. Lucie and their opening series in Miami. I got some good suggestions last time I posted this, so here it is again in case you missed it that time.

← Back

Thank you for your response. ✨

Season in preview: Catchers

In 2010, Mets catchers combined for a .665 OPS. In 2009, it was .685. The team’s backstops have not bettered the paltry league average for catchers since 2007, and that was mostly thanks to Ramon Castro’s outstanding production in 153 plate appearances.

Under Omar Minaya, we heard many times, the Mets viewed catcher as a defensive position. Too often this excused catchers who couldn’t hit at all, some of whom weren’t even particularly good defenders. In 2011, one of the fruits of Minaya’s first draft (combined with a fellow perpetually rumored to be on Minaya’s radar) will look to exonerate the former GM of his inability to find catchers that could hit.

The catchers in April: Josh Thole, Mike Nickeas.

Overview: I think David Wright and Jose Reyes spoiled us. We forget that it took Reyes two and a half seasons to reach his All-Star form, and we expect every player that comes through the system to quickly achieve the type of success that Reyes and Wright enjoyed early in their careers. It’s almost unbelievable that the Mets were able to develop two legitimate All-Stars in such a short time, yet now we hope every prospect can immediately reach that level.

But no team entirely consists of All-Stars, and good teams need guys, too. A frequent point of contention with Minaya’s administration was that the Mets too often complemented their great players with terrible ones, casting misplaced blame on the Wrights and Carlos Beltrans of the world when meanwhile Jeff Conine was still getting important at-bats. Great teams need dudes: Low-cost, generally homegrown contributors that can benefit a roster without vacuuming up the payroll that should be dedicated toward the All-Stars.

And I think Josh Thole might be a dude. In his first 286 Major League plate appearances, Thole has a solid .286/.357/.373 line. It’s a small sample and his power numbers won’t make anyone forget Mike Piazza, but Thole has nonetheless hit like a better than average catcher whenever he has been in the big leagues. Moreover, the numbers aren’t terribly out of line with his Minor League stats; Thole has always been a patient hitter with doubles power.

The knock on Thole is his inexperience behind the plate — he caught in high school but mostly played first base in the Minors from 2005 to 2007. But Thole now has three full seasons of catching at the professional level. By Beyond the Boxscore’s catcher defense rating, he was well better than average in 2010, thanks in part to his throwing out 44% of would-be basestealers. Plus, Mike Pelfrey and R.A. Dickey both praise Thole’s game-calling ability.

Thole is still young and reasonably new to Major League play, so he could endure an adjustment period at the plate in 2011. But we should be patient. He has hit in the Minors and worked to become a solid defender behind the plate. Cost-controlled catchers with an above-average ability to get on base don’t come around every day, and even if Thole needs some time to develop at the big-league level, he is likely good enough and young enough to contribute to the Mets’ next contender.

Nickeas starts the season on the roster while Ronny Paulino finishes his PED suspension. Nickeas has not hit much in the Minors, though he enjoyed a very Thole-esque .276/.389/.382 line in 2010, mostly due to the strength of his performance at Double-A Binghamton. At 28, he’s unlikely to ever become a Major League regular, but he has a reputation as a good defensive catcher and seems like a pretty sharp guy. Perhaps if he proves he can get on-base a little at the Major League level, Nickeas can join baseball’s fraternity of itinerant backup catchers.

Paulino is currently shut down due to something that came up in his blood work, which is a bit scary. I don’t know what that means or how long he’ll be out. When he comes back, he’ll mash left-handers. He has a career .881 OPS against southpaws, meaning he can spell Thole against tougher lefties and give the Mets an offensive boost. He, too, scored well on Beyond the Boxscore’s catcher defense rating.

The catchers in September: Thole and Paulino.

How they stack up: Bryan McCann is one of the best catchers in the Majors and the class of the NL East. The Marlins gave John Buck a three-year, $18 million deal coming off the best season of his career, but Buck has a career .301 OBP. The Nats will use a combination of Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos behind the plate. Ramos is a well-regarded prospect and is still quite young, but he very rarely walks and hasn’t hit much above Double-A. Pudge can’t hit at all anymore. Carlos Ruiz enjoyed a great year for the Phillies in 2010 with a OPS about 100 points higher than his career line.

I’ll take Thole over Buck and the combo in Washington. And I’ll hold out hope that Ruiz, at 32, regresses to something closer to his lifetime .260/.353/.396 line and that he and Thole are more or less equals.

Next up: First base.

Season in preview: Starting pitchers

With Opening Day now a week away and very little else Mets-related to write about besides the very fringes of the roster, I figure it’s about time I roll out this now-annual season-preview tradition. Like last year, I’ll start with starting pitchers, work my way around the diamond, then close with the bullpen.

The starting pitchers in April: Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young and Chris Capuano.

Overview: This group lacks a pitcher that fits the traditional, brand-name “ace” mold, and it likely will until if and when Johan Santana returns (more on that to follow). But there’s nothing in the MLB rulebook that says a team can’t compete with five solid starters and no One True No.1.

Do the Mets have five solid starters?

Mike Pelfrey we know. He has been pretty consistent since taking on a full-time job in the Mets’ rotation in 2008: He’s good for about 200 innings with a lot of ground balls and not many strikeouts or walks. Guys like Pelfrey that pitch to weak contact are subject to bigger fluctuations in results — see Pelfrey’s rough 2009 — but with good infield defense behind him, Big Pelf can be expected to post numbers similar to the ones he put up last year. And that’s not bad; reliable, durable starters hardly grow on trees.

Jon Niese enters his second full season off a solid rookie performance in 2010. He faltered down the stretch, posting a 7.57 ERA over his last seven starts, but his early-season success, his history of staying mostly healthy (aside from the awful hamstring tear in 2009) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio bode well for his future. Not a lot of pitchers perform as well at age 23 as Niese did, and though pitchers don’t seem to enjoy as smooth a learning curve as hitters often do, the peak age for pitchers is still right around 27. Niese should be getting better.

R.A. Dickey’s future is more difficult to predict. I’ve pointed out in the past that Tim Wakefield enjoyed the best seasons of his career in 1992 and 1995, implying that Dickey could regress from his stellar 138 ERA+. But for a variety of reasons, Dickey is unique even among knuckleballers. Plus, as Mike Salfino pointed out, knuckleballers often enjoy success into their 40s.

Still, I’d be pleasantly surprised if Dickey can repeat his outrageous success in 2011. If he can do it for a full season, the Mets will have the ace we all want. If he can’t, he’ll still likely be a good, durable starter for the middle of the rotation. And that will still be awesome, since he’ll be a bearded, literary knuckleballer making hilarious faces.

Behind the three holdovers from last season, the Mets have newcomers Chris Young and Chris Capuano. Though there is rightfully a good deal of concern about both pitchers coming off several injury-plagued season, it’s worth noting that they both finished 2010 in their teams’ rotations and pitched well. Both were good when last healthy, and neither is terribly old.

Young hasn’t pitched a full season since 2007 and Capuano hasn’t since 2006, so it’s silly to expect both will hold up and hold down the back end of the Mets’ rotation for all of 2011. But if they can combine for even 200 innings, they’ll be 200 better innings than the Mets were likely to get from Oliver Perez.

When a pitcher succumbs to injury — as pitchers do — Dillon Gee should step in. Gee was hit hard in Triple-A in 2010, allowing 23 homers in 161 1/3 innings, but he strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t walk many, meaning he should be able to avoid total meltdowns and keep the Mets in games when he pitches. And though I wouldn’t pencil him into the Mets rotation for at least another year, Jenrry Mejia could establish his secondary stuff and dominate hitters in Buffalo, leapfrogging Gee and/or kicking down the door to Citi Field.

As for Santana: I hate to be doom-and-gloom, but that July target date seems, well, quite optimistic. There just aren’t a lot of pitchers Santana’s age who have successfully come back from the surgery he endured. I asked injury expert Will Carroll about it on Twitter, and he mentioned Ted Lilly and Dustin McGowan, though McGowan is not all the way back yet and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since the surgery ended his 2008. At the press conference announcing that Santana would need surgery, someone mentioned — as if this was a positive thing, believe it or not — Chien-Ming Wang and Kelvim Escobar.

Santana is his own unique snowflake, and a snowflake that happens to be outrageously fit and competitive, so it’s hardly time to start singing his death knell. But shoulder injuries being what they are and pitching being what it is, we have to amount for the realistic possibility that we don’t see Santana pitch at all in 2011. And if and when he does comes back, Santana cannot be expected to revert to being Johan Santana.

Matthew Artus noted that Orel Hershiser returned from the same surgery, and indeed, Hershiser started 271 games after the procedure ended his 1990 campaign. But before the surgery, Hershiser had a career 131 ERA+. After the surgery, it fell to 101. Granted, aging has a lot to do with that mark, and Hershiser enjoyed good seasons with the Indians in 1995 and 1996, but it’s impossible to say he was ever again the same pitcher he was before the operation. And Santana is aging too.

The starting pitchers in September: Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Gee and one of Capuano and Young.

Just playing hunches there and assuming one of Capuano and Young is injured by September. Also assuming Santana is not back. I will be thrilled if I am wrong about that.

How they stack up: A reminder, the Mets’ pitchers do not technically face off with the opposing teams’ pitchers. As I said last year, I always think it’s silly when series previews compare teams position-by-position to determine which has the advantage at which spot, since it doesn’t work like that. Jose Reyes does not face Hanley Ramirez.

But that said, the Mets’ starting pitchers will not be as good as the Phillies’. They will likely not be as good as the Braves’ or Marlins’ starting staffs either. They look to be better than the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez-helmed group.

Next up: Catchers, now with 100% more Ronny Paulino.

 

Hear me say stuff

Last night I joined some of the folks from KinersKorner.com to talk about the Mets, Spring Training, and working with their site’s namesake, Ralph Kiner. Speaking of: As I mentioned on the show, we’re perpetually looking for more original Kiner’s Korner footage. If you or someone you know has some you’re willing to share, email me.

Depth perception

Twitterer @SNESMaster asked me this morning if the Mets seem to have more depth than in previous years. I was actually thinking about this last night.

I put together this chart, comparing the Mets’ Plan As, Bs and Cs at the non-pitching positions Opening Day 2011 to those from 2010. To the previous administration’s credit (and as noted in the chart), the 2010 Mets started with three would-be regulars on the disabled list. Still — and maybe I’m just being optimistic here — it looks like a pretty stark contract.

Ronny Paulino gets an asterisk because he’ll be suspended to start the year. I put Carlos Beltran down for “disabled” to start the season not because I’m certain that will be the case, but just to hedge my optimism. Obviously if Beltran is disabled it opens up another big-league roster spot to start the season, so you could probably slide Nick Evans in for Willie Harris in left and/or right field.

If it weren’t for the presence of David Wright in last year’s lineup, I might actually take this year’s Buffalo lineup over the fellows trotted out at Citi Field last April.

Sorry if it looks a bit funky. Tables screw with this WordPress theme.

First 2011:

Position Starter Backup Triple-A
C Josh Thole Ronny Paulino* Mike Nickeas
1B Ike Davis Daniel Murphy Nick Evans?
2B Brad Emaus Daniel Murphy Justin Turner
3B David Wright Daniel Murphy Zach Lutz
SS Jose Reyes Chin-Lung Hu Ruben Tejada
LF Jason Bay Willie Harris Lucas Duda
CF Angel Pagan Willie Harris Jason Pridie
RF Scott Hairston Willie Harris Fernando Martinez
Disabled Carlos Beltran

And now 2010:

Position Starter Backup Triple-A
C Rod Barajas Henry Blanco Josh Thole
1B Mike Jacobs Frank Catalanotto Ike Davis
2B Luis Castillo Ruben Tejada Russ Adams
3B David Wright Fernando Tatis Mike Cervenak
SS Alex Cora Ruben Tejada Luis Hernandez
LF Jason Bay Angel Pagan Chris Carter
CF Gary Matthews Jr. Angel Pagan Jesus Feliciano
RF Jeff Francoeur Angel Pagan Fernando Martinez
Disabled Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Daniel Murphy