About that right-handed bat

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Ryan Garko could be non-tendered by the San Francisco Giants.

If the Mets are really looking for a right-handed bat to complement Daniel Murphy at first base and are unwilling to give Nick Evans a shot, Garko might be a nice fit.

Garko will turn 29 in January and sports a career .887 OPS against lefties. He’s not a great defensive first baseman, but on the upside, he wears high socks and vaguely resembles Gaston from Beauty and the Beast.

Garko started 10 games in corner outfield positions last season. Also, my wife thinks he’s hot. I think he’s kind of goony looking, but there’s no accounting for taste I suppose.

What happened here?

One of the more bizarre events of the Winter Meetings flew under the radar yesterday when the Mets diverted headlines with contract offers to Bengie Molina and Jason Bay.

The Rule 5 Draft is often meaningless and I am far from an expert in the subject, but it is a reasonable place to find a low-cost role-player, provided you’re willing to keep him on your 25-man roster. If not, you must send him back to the team from which you’ve taken him. That’s how it works.

Anyway, strange things were afoot yesterday. As I wrote:

The Mets took Carlos Monasterios from the Phillies in the Rule 5 Draft this morning. It’s not a big deal, but the Phillies only had 33 men on their 40-man roster so weren’t even close to protecting Monasterios, plus he didn’t even make the list of 14 guys Jonathan Mayo suggested at MLB.com, plus he only threw seven innings about Single A last season, plus this guy was available. The Mets must really like something about Monasterios, in other words.

Update, 10:02 a.m. And apparently Monasterios has been traded to the Dodgers for cash considerations.

It turned out, according to David Lennon, that scouts loved Monasterios, so there’s that. But enough to make up for the fact that he’d only thrown seven innings above Single A? I guess so. And no one even selected Yohan Pino, a guy who posted over a 4:1 K:BB ratio in over 120 innings across Double-A and Triple-A in 2009.

Shows what I know.

Anyway, the bottom line is the Mets, with 40-man roster spots available, turned the seventh overall pick in the Rule 5 draft — a solid opportunity to find a role player on the cheap — into cash considerations from the Dodgers.

It could be that the deal forebodes some future move with the Dodgers and was some sort of good faith move between the two clubs, as Lennon suggests. I have no idea.

In any case, it doesn’t mean much. But it’s certainly weird.

You bring up a good point, Joel Sherman

I was going to write a whole SNY.tv column about something, then Joel Sherman sort of scooped me. In today’s Post, he writes:

Ticket sales are lagging and fans are screaming for the Mets to make a meaningful acquisition.

And, poof, they suddenly were acknowledging making an offer yesterday to Jason Bay.

That’s a bit more cynical than the angle I was going to take, but the point is similar: We spend a ton of time weighing in on and reacting to reports from anonymous sources, but we almost never consider the motivations of anonymous sources.

Yesterday, after the Yankees had acquired Curtis Granderson, when Mets fans were starting to get impatient, after Scott Boras essentially called the Mets out in public, someone leaked word to Mike Francesa that an offer had been extended to Jason Bay.

Mike Francesa! You don’t leak information to Mike Francesa as a gesture of goodwill or good faith to a reporter who covers the team in good conscience every day, you leak information to Mike Francesa because it’s easier than standing on top of the Empire State Building shouting it into a 50-million watt megaphone while Twittering it into a Blackberry synchronized with a team of skywriting biplanes and the Goodyear blimp.

For whatever reason, the Mets desperately wanted us to know that they made an offer to Jason Bay.

I can think of a few possible explanations:

They really want Bay. Occam’s razor, right? The simplest explanation is often the best. The Mets could really believe that Bay’s power will play at Citi Field or that he’ll be a better value than Holliday, and so they are legitimately pursuing him and want their anxious fanbase to know it.

What Sherman says. By all accounts, ticket sales are slow. The Daily News has fueled a ton of paranoia that the Mets will not spend much money this offseason, so it could be that the team is extending offers to show fans that it is, indeed, willing to spend to improve this year. Bay pretty clearly is not going to accept the four-year, $65 million deal, since it’s only nominally larger than the one he was reportedly offered by the Red Sox, so it could very well be just for appearances.

They really want Holliday. If the deal is disingenuous, as Sherman seems to suggest, it could just as easily be an attempt to leverage perceived interest in Bay to drive down Matt Holliday’s price tag. I have no idea that that’s the case, and that’s probably wishful thinking on my part since I think Holliday’s a better fit, plus I think Scott Boras is probably too smart for that to work, but you never know.

Anyway as I’m writing this about six other blog posts have come out on the Internet wondering exactly the same thing about the motiviations, so apparently it’s not nearly as brilliant a realization as I initially assumed. Carry on.

Slow down

Apparently everyone has left the Winter Meetings and is in transit, meaning all forms of baseball-related media have gone quiet except for Mike Francesa, who has seized the opportunity to declare that the Mets have offered a contract to Jason Bay.

I should note that I am not listening to Francesa’s show; I find it difficult and quite likely bad for my health, so all of this information is coming second and third hand.

Anyway, Francesa apparently says the Mets have offered Bay a contract because they prefer him to Matt Holliday based on charts they have that show his power will play better at Citi Field.

This has caused an immediate uproar on Twitter and in the blogosphere, and rightfully so; Holliday appears to be a better player than Bay overall, and a younger one.

While more reliable sources have since confirmed that the Mets have made an offer to Bay, it’s important to slow down a second: Keep in mind that there’s more than just straight player evaluation at work here, and so far Francesa is, as far as I know, the only journalist who has suggested the Mets prefer Bay to Holliday.

It could be that the Mets see Bay as potentially a better value than Holliday — a far less perplexing determination. Holliday, after all, is a Scott Boras client and the premiere free agent on the market and so will likely be expensive.

Of course, his price hasn’t been set yet — neither has Bay’s — and it’s difficult to trust any of the myriad rumors that have surfaced this offseason about the salaries players will command.

The commotion online strikes me more as the fallout from a fanbase grown entirely distrustful of its front office. We’re so certain that the Mets will screw something up this offseason that we’ll take Mike Francesa’s word as proof that they already have.

Meanwhile, it does appear that right-handed pull hitters succeed at Citi Field, and Bay is a lot more pull-heavy than Holliday.

That’s not to say he’s better, of course, but it seems a pointless exercise to destroy the Mets for a move they haven’t even made yet.

Besides, if we’re going to do that, the one to target is the Bengie Molina one. That guy’s no good.

When it happens doesn’t matter

Maybe I’m creating a strawman here, but I feel like there’s some sense of anxiety from Mets fans that the Winter Meetings will come and go and the team will have done nothing to improve its roster, and that’s somehow bad.

But it’s not.

If you read this space with any regularity, you know it’s far from my bag to defend Omar Minaya and his administration, but there’s no reason to rush into anything.

Think about it: Has there been any move made this offseason that’s made you say, oh wow, the Mets really missed out on that one?

Maybe signing Rich Harden for $7.5 million. But even that — for a near lock to get injured — seems far from a steal.

The rest? Would anyone have been thrilled if the Mets gave Randy Wolf three years and $30 million? Or four years and $36 mil for Chone Figgins? Multi-year deals for Brian Schneider or Ivan Rodriguez or Yorvit Torrealba? No thanks.

It seems like the dominant sentiment among Mets fans, based mostly on reports in the Daily News, is that the team isn’t going to spend enough money to compete for the big free agents on the markets. But the team keeps claiming it will, and it’s not like any of the big free agents have gone off the board below market rate without the Mets in on the bidding.

The Mets need to improve their roster by Opening Day, not by the end of the Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings are a non-event. They may be full of sound and fury, but they signify nothing.

I know this is not something any Mets fan wants to hear, but be patient. It’s actually better that the front office be reading the market and reacting than going all-in and overspending.

Bats in the Pelfrey

The John Harper column I weighed in on yesterday is making its way around the Internet, and now everyone’s getting on board the Mike Pelfrey-is-a-headcase train.

Good lord.

OK, Mike Pelfrey does some weird things. He got the yips one night, he fell down while pitching on another, and one time, after a rough start, he blew off some steam by running laps of Coors Field.

Whatever.

The issue of whether Mike Pelfrey actually regressed in any significant way was addressed during the season by both Howard Megdal and Sam Page. I won’t go into any great detail, but read those pieces.

Basically, as a ground-ball pitcher Pelfrey relies on his defense. In 2008, he pitched in front of a decent defense. In 2009, he pitched in front of a terrible one.

Or, he succumbed to his obvious mental weakness.

Truth is, something did appear to go wrong for Pelfrey in the last month of the 2009 season. In his first 24 starts of the year, he allowed nine home runs in 140 2/3 innings. In his last seven, he allowed nine home runs in 43 2/3 innings.

Maybe his arm was tired, or maybe he made some sort of adjustment that didn’t work out so well, or maybe he really did get a touch anxious.

In any case, if the Mets can improve the defense behind Pelfrey, I wouldn’t bet on it continuing. Again, and for like the millionth time, professional athletes are professional athletes because they can triumph over mental hiccups.

Repeat after me: You do not make the Major Leagues if you are mentally weak.

You don’t.

Certainly, there are guys who’ve gone crazy, guys who’ve needed help, and guys who couldn’t be helped. There’s a mental aspect of the game, for sure.

But let’s not all pile on Pelfrey for a few on-field idiosyncrasies and an unlucky season. Remember that his weird mouth/tongue thing was just a lovable little quirk after 2008. Even up until midway through this season, everyone was certain John Maine was the second biggest headcase in the Mets’ rotation, not Pelfrey.

Check it out — I even joked about it in this column, which touched on a lot of the same topics as the blog post you’re reading now:

I’m confident that I know enough about baseball to analyze most of what the players do on the field. I’m not confident that I know enough about people to analyze what happens in their heads. Who am I to say that John Maine is a head case and Mike Pelfrey is not? Who is anybody? For all I know, Maine is just a guy who beats himself up after a bad day and Pelfrey is quietly a madman.

Look: Mike Pelfrey is the least of the Mets’ problems. He’s a 26-year-old pitcher who has managed to stay mostly healthy for two full Major League seasons. That alone is a valuable commodity, and combined with his 50 percent career groundball rate, makes Pelfrey a good bet to remain a solid part of a big-league rotation for the next several years.

Let’s not run him out of town for perceived mental weakness.

Don’t miss a thrilling opportunity to meet me

Hey, Mets fans: Are you looking to meet the New York area’s hottest sabermetrically inclined singles? Would you like to find an attractive, eligible partner who wants nothing more than to enjoy a long walk on the beach while discussing the relative merits of VORP versus WAR?

Well, I can’t help you. But if you want to get together with a bunch of other fans to discuss the Mets’ offseason, come to the Blue and Orange Hot Stove Huddle next Wednesday, Dec. 16, at 7 p.m.

I will be there and probably participating in some sort of to be determined discussion or forum or pie-eating contest.

It’s at River on 500 W. 43rd St. and 10th Ave. in Manhattan.

You should come. I’m told they serve booze there, and, let’s be honest, you almost certainly have nothing better to do. I know I don’t. Avatar doesn’t even come out until Friday.

So RSVP via Facebook.

And if you do come, please say hello. I’ll be the ridiculously handsome guy standing in the corner, drinking Jack and coke, and making snarky and judgmental comments to and/or about Joe Janish from MetsToday.com.

No country for old men

According to David Lennon at Newsday, the inevitable has come to pass: The Mets have offered Bengie Molina a two-year, $12 million contract.

If Molina signs, the Opening Day age of the average Mets’ offseason acquisition so far will hold steady at about 35 years old. That figure includes Alex Cora, Chris Coste, Henry Blanco and Mike Hessman, but not Elmer Dessens, whose deal isn’t official yet.

Look: I realize that doesn’t mean much. It’s still very early in the offseason, and the Mets will almost certainly bring in a couple of guys to drag that average down.

What’s troublesome about it, though, is that all those guys were offered deals before the Dec. 12 deadline for teams to non-tender arbitration-eligible players in this, a year in which the economy is expected to make more young, role-playing free agents available than ever before.

So while I recognize that the players the Mets have signed and pursued so far are mostly role players, I wonder why they were so eager to lock down so many old role players. Do they really value experience so highly that it’s worth the greater injury risk, greater chance of an erosion of skills, and the much, much smaller chance of a breakout performance?

Maybe. Who am I to say how the Mets should value experience? Clearly there’s some reason they felt Cora was worth $2 million and a vesting option, and it’s not something I can identify on any of these spreadsheets.

Early in my tenure writing for SNY.tv, I was accused by several posters on that site’s message boards of ageism. I complained so much about Omar Minaya’s apparent campaign to reunite the 1991 AL All-Star Team in Port St. Lucie in 2007 that people became certain I had some sort of agenda against older players.

I really don’t, though. I recognize that older players can offer value to a team, beyond just their experience. Players who were good in their mid-30s are likely to remain at least useful in their late 30s, and so, if the price is right, teams that appear on the verge of contention can and should turn to veterans for help.

For a team in the Mets’ current situation, though, I’m less certain it’s a good idea.

It can reasonably be argued that these Mets have uncertainty — due either to injury or recent performance — at every single position. Even David Wright showed chinks in his armor for the first time in his career in 2009.

That’s not to say the Mets should scrap everything and rebuild in 2010. They’ve still got a slew of great players, and so, with decent team health and a few key acquisitions, they should be competitive.

But with so many question marks, the Mets would be foolish to go all-in on 2010. They must reinforce their current crop of players with guys who might actually help the team beyond the upcoming season.

Bengie Molina is not one of those guys. Not many 35-year-old catchers are. And with the Rays appearing primed to part with Kelly Shoppach (whom they just acquired for a player to be named later) or non-tender Dioner Navarro, it’s easy to wonder why the Mets are instead ready to commit two years to someone with so many more behind him.

Gone to Sheets

According to Joel Sherman’s Twitter, the Mets will meet with Ben Sheets’ agent at some point during the Winter Meetings.

Good.

Sheets could be a great pickup for the Mets. He’s always a huge injury risk — he’s coming off flexor tendon surgery and hasn’t pitched since 2008, plus was injury prone before that — but he’s also always good.

I have no idea what Sheets is looking for in a contract, and it sounds like no one does. He’s certain to have a ton of suitors, but likely the team that lands him will be one that offers him some intriguing combination of guaranteed cash and performance incentives.

The Mets probably should be that team. If he’s healthy, Sheets will better than everyone in the Mets’ rotation besides Johan Santana.

For what it’s worth, in 2004, Andy Pettitte endured the same surgery that made Sheets miss all of last year. Since 2005, Pettitte has average 210 innings a season.

Of course, Pettitte was a lot healthier than Sheets before he had the surgery, so it’s not a fair comparison. I only mean to say that it’s reasonable to expect Sheets to return to full health, or at least as close to full health as he can ever be.

Plus, Sheets represents a reasonable opportunity for the Mets to leverage the perception of their home park to their advantage. If, as has been reported, sluggers are shying away from Citi Field because of its dimensions, shouldn’t pitchers be more eager to sign on with the Mets?

And then wouldn’t it make sense for Sheets, who will likely be pitching for his next contract in 2010, to throw half of his games in Queens?

Again, it’s all about the cost. If some team is willing to give him two guaranteed years and $20 million, the Mets should bow out gracefully. If Sheets is presented with a slew of similar, incentive-laden one-year contracts, though, the Mets should do their best to make sure theirs is the most favorable.

Reasons to like John Maine

John Maine’s name has come up in trade rumors today. Chris M made a good point in the comments section earlier on how Maine appears to be regressing since 2007, and it’s true: Maine has posted higher ERAs and lower strikeout rates in each season since his best one.

But, as a Mets fan, I’m prone to hoping Maine can bounce back and finding reasons for optimism: He did, after all, pitch well in a very small sample after returning from injury in 2009.

Moreover, I root for Maine because, from everything I read about him and the few times I’ve spoken to him, he seems like a pretty funny guy, or at the very least an interesting one. Two examples:

1) In February, 2008, John Maine told Marty Noble he had never visited the Internet.

I can’t imagine how this could possibly be true. Maine was born in 1981, like me, and would have been in my class in school. That means he went to college — UNC-Charlotte, specifically — from 1999 until he left for the Orioles farm system in 2002. That was the peak of the supposed dot-com boom, not to mention the peak of the Napster era.

Maybe Maine somehow missed all of that, in which case, he’s certainly fascinating. More likely, Maine made some sort of sarcastic comment in the clubhouse that was taken seriously, then decided to run with it to mess with a reporter.

And that’s awesome. I probably shouldn’t say this, but if I were a professional athlete I would make stuff up to mess with reporters all the time.

2) In September 2008, when the Mets were toying with the idea of bringing Maine back from injury and into a bullpen role, he told reporters he had already selected his closer music: Sir Mix-A-Lot’s “Posse on Broadway.”

That’s cool for a variety of reasons. For one, players rarely go on record discussing their choice of intro music, and when they do, it’s usually something like, “Aw, shucks, that’s just what my teammates thought would be fun” or something lame.

Maine thought about it enough to confidently select his own, meaning he’s clearly aware enough to recognize how awesome closer music can be. As someone with a whole lot to say on the subject, I hugely appreciate that Maine cared enough to consider his song, even if it was just in passing, and even if he’ll never really be a closer.

In both parts of my aforelinked closer-music epic, I wrote, “hip-hop is woefully underrepresented in closer music.” Apparently John Maine recognizes this too, and so picked Sir Mix-A-Lot (you know, the “I like big butts” guy).

It’s not a bad choice, either. It’s funny because, though Mix-A-Lot is referring to the Broadway in his native seattle, it conjures images of John Maine and an entourage rolling down Broadway in Manhattan. And Maine’s posse almost certainly includes Mike Pelfrey, and Pelfrey just seems like a hilarious person to be part of a posse.

Here’s the song: