I was going to save this for closer to Opening Day but I changed my mind.

Context: The Mets won 77 games in 2011. Last July, they traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers and Carlos Beltran to the Giants. In December, Jose Reyes signed with the Miami Marlins. Reyes and Beltran will be replaced by Ruben Tejada and Lucas Duda in 2012. The Mets revamped their bullpen in the offseason. Ike Davis missed most of 2011 with an ankle injury and appears to be healthy now. David Wright missed parts of 2011 and claims he will be ready for Opening Day.

I’m going with the Vegas line for this one.

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Context: Bobby Parnell has been prone to the wild pitch in his career. He unleashed six of them in 88 1/3 innings in 2009 and eight in 59 1/3 innings in 2011. To his credit, he threw none in 35 innings in 2010, and probably a bunch of them in 2009 and 2011 would’ve been stopped by catchers if he didn’t throw so damn hard. But he does.

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This one comes from real-life friend Scott.

Context: Jose Reyes used to play for the Mets and this year he’ll play for the Marlins. In 2011, he stole 39 bases overall, including eight against the Braves, seven against the Phillies, four against the Marlins and one against the Nationals. The Mets threw out 21 percent of baserunners in 2011, tied for third worst in the Majors, and allowed 121 steals, 10th most out of 30 clubs*. Reyes gets hurt sometimes.

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*- For what it’s worth: Not only did Diamondbacks catchers combine for an .831 OPS in 2011 — second best of any team, trailing only the Rangers — but they threw out a league-leading 41-percent of would-be basestealers and allowed the fewest steals. Miguel Montero started 131 games behind the plate for Arizona, but I’m willing to give all the credit to Henry Blanco.

There are several ripple effects contingent upon Hairston’s fate. If he opens the season on the DL, that opens a spot for a righty-hitting backup outfielder, with Vinny Rottino the closest to fitting that profile. It also means the lefty-hitting outfielder would need to be able to back up Andres Torres in center field, with Adam Loewen and Mike Baxter the candidates. Baxter recently told Collins he was capable of playing center field, after saying to Collins upon his promotion last year he did not feel comfortable there.

– Adam Rubin, ESPN.com.

I’m not doubting Rubin’s reporting here: It seems eminently possible the Mets are looking for a righty-hitting backup outfielder to replace the injured Hairston. But (and one more time) if that’s true, I wonder why.

Carrying Hairston when he’s healthy makes sense because he mashes lefties off the bench and can capably play all three outfield positions. But the Mets also have righty-hitting Justin Turner slated for a backup role. Turner’s not Hairston at the plate, but his Minor League numbers compare favorably to Rottino’s, plus he’s younger and has a year of not embarrassing himself at the Major League level under his belt.

Chances are, given the prevalence of right-handers in bullpens (and everywhere), the Mets will have a lot more pinch-hitting opportunities with the platoon advantange for lefty hitters than for righties. So if Rottino doesn’t distinguish himself from Adam Loewen and Mike Baxter, why carry him just to be the right-handed-hitting backup outfielder when it’s not a position with much function?

Switch-hitting Andres Torres has been much better against righties than lefties the past couple of years, so if the righty-hitting backup outfielder could play center he’d get some use there. Hairston can, giving him even more value to the Mets. Rottino has played only in corners and behind the plate this spring and in recent seasons in the Minors.

Lefty-hitting Lucas Duda was better against righties than lefties last year. But Duda is 26 and possibly a part of the Mets’ future, so it figures the team will want him playing near every day. A righty-hitting backup outfielder would allow Terry Collins to give Duda some days off against tough lefties, though.

Over in left field, Jason Bay showed a massive platoon split in 2011 — a .918 OPS against lefties and .629 against righties. If that continues and the Mets want to win as many games as possible, they’d be best-served giving Bay plenty of days off against tough righties. Carrying a second lefty-hitting bench bat would allow them to spell Bay and still have a lefty on the bench for pinch-hitting opportunities.

This might be a new low for me: Not just fretting about the 25th spot on the Mets’ roster, but fretting about a 25th spot on the Mets’ roster that might not even exist. If Hairston comes back, none of this means anything.

For now, if Hairston needs to start the season on the DL and no one else enters the Mets’ outfield mix, it looks like it breaks down like this:

Keeping Rottino and Baxter/Loewen means:
– A lefty to spell Bay and a righty to spell Duda.
– One guy who can back up Andres Torres in center.
– One lefty bat on the bench, unless he’s spelling Bay.
– A third catcher (Rottino).

Keeping Loewen and Baxter means:
– Two lefties who could spell Bay but no righty to spell Duda.
– Two guys who can back up Andres Torres in center.
– Always having at least one lefty bat on the bench.
– Justin Turner as the primary righty pinch-hitter.
– Guaranteed presence of Adam Loewen’s beard.

A lot of it likely boils down to how much the Mets’ value the flexibility added by the third catcher. But since the Mets already have Turner on the bench and it seems eminently likely he’s a better hitter than Rottino, it doesn’t seem to make sense to carry a righty to replace Hairston just for the sake of his handedness.

In other words — the words of Parliament, specifically — if it don’t fit, don’t force it.

The pitch that he took from Wainwright, you talk about the greatest hitters in our game, they all would have. That ball was way up here and everyone that ever comes to bat would have seen that pitch and taken it…. All of a sudden it drops in the strike zone, and this guy’s gotten criticized for taking strike three…. There isn’t anybody who is going to swing at that pitch except for Yogi Berra, who swings at everything.

– Tony La Russa.

Big hat tip to Herb for the link.

I got a nice crop of over-under suggestions, like the following from reader (and writer) Sam Maxwell. But there’s still a few weeks until Opening Day, so please keep ’em coming.

Context: Dillon Gee has a massive goatee. According to the Wikipedia, “Male pogonotrophy (the growing of facial hair; i.e., beardedness) is often culturally associated with wisdom and virility. Men may style their facial hair into beards, moustaches, goatees or sideburns; others completely shave their facial hair.”

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