The Mets could trade David Wright

I’m hearing that the Mets could trade David Wright for prospects or pitching or a proven veteran leader or a big-time power threat or a dirty-uniform guy or some combination thereof.

The Mets have considered and will again consider dealing Wright, even though it is extremely unlikely that they do so. Nearly every other front office in baseball has internally discussed acquiring Wright, regardless of if they have the requisite pieces to pull off such a trade or the money with which to pay Wright’s salary or even the need for a third baseman.

And though Wright could void the 2013 club option in his contract if he is dealt — making him more valuable to the Mets than any acquiring team — there remains some chance the Mets will flip him to a potential contender looking for a one-year rental at third base if that team can return a package that Sandy Alderson believes is worth more to the Mets than Wright’s next two seasons.

The Mets are interested in re-signing Jose Reyes, but not if his demands exceed what they’re willing to pay. If the Mets sign Reyes, they might trade Wright to free up salary or keep Wright in an effort to compete sooner rather than later. If the Mets don’t sign Reyes, they will consider both trading Wright and not trading Wright.

For the Mets to trade Wright, they will need to find a willing trade partner offering one or more players that could contribute to their future more than Wright will, then hammer out the details and fill out a bunch of paperwork. Though it is possible all of that could happen this winter, it is improbable.

If the Mets retain Wright, they could also trade him during the season or keep him for the length of his contract or sign him to an extension.

Patent leather

The plan, according to Viola, is to have Leathersich be a starter in Class A ball next year. If he thrives, so much the better. But the Mets just want him to gain as much experience as possible by throwing the extra innings.

“We’re going to have him build up his arm, but I see him as a closer or set-up man somewhere down the line because he’s overpowering for short periods of time,” Viola said.

Chaz Scoggins, Lowell Sun.

Via Amazin’ Avenue comes this solid read on lefty Jack Leathersich, the Mets’ fifth-round pick in 2011.

If you read this site with any regularity you know how dismissive I normally am of both far-off prospects and small sample sizes. And Toby tells me to never read too much into NY-Penn League stats, which I suppose makes sense: A lot of guys in that league are adjusting to wood bats and the rigors of life in the Minors for the first time. And even a full (short) season there is a pretty small sample.

So it is with several grains of salt that I note Leathersich’s ridiculous rate of 18.5 strikeouts per nine with only six hits and three walks allowed in the 12 2/3 innings he pitched for the Cyclones. That’s about as dominant a line as you’ll find anywhere in the professional ranks. Given the tiny sample, it could mean little to nothing, but it’s certainly better than, you know, not striking out more than more than half of the batters you face.

And it’s interesting that the Mets are going to stretch Leathersich out next year for reasons that make a ton of sense. If they want him polishing his full arsenal of pitches, he’s best served getting as many reps as possible. Plus, if he succeeds as a starter, then, you know, sweet.

Also, and most importantly: The guy’s name is Jack Leathersich.

Top free agent outfield contracts

Patrick Flood continues his look back at the best and worst free-agent contracts by examining outfielders signed since 2004. Any guesses whose contract was the best?

Worth noting: Not only did Carlos Beltran earn his money with the Mets, as Flood points out. He also — in the final awesome flourish of his tenure — brought back Zack Wheeler, now considered one of the Mets’ top prospects.

To rebuild or not to rebuild?

The term “rebuilding” is thrown around a lot in some baseball discussions, if not often publicly by front-office types themselves. To some Mets fans, the team needs a rebuilding year to usher it back toward contention. To others, the idea of blowing up the club — trading all the best players for promising prospects and starting fresh — seems too rash.

What the Mets actually need likely falls somewhere between the two. And really the term “rebuilding,” in its professional sports connotation at least, is shorthand for an approach to a whole series of decisions facing a team. For a smaller market club, it may make sense to function like a Taco Bell franchise: operating with the structure it has until it’s no longer efficient to do so, then tearing down the building and suffering short-term losses while it erects something that works better.

But teams like the Mets, if running optimally and with the flexibility afforded by a big budget, should never really require such a drastic overhaul. A better approach — or metaphor, or whatever — for those clubs might be a state of perpetual renovation, the type required to maintain the value of a structure more stately than a suburban fast-food joint (however delicious).

Whatever. The point is, those Mets fans crying “rebuild” should consider that the team endured many of the aspects typically associated with a rebuilding in 2011.

Yes, they made pretenses toward contention before the season and for a time even teased us with a winning club. But the 2011 Mets entrusted a slew of big-league roles to young and unproven players, resisted the urge to trade prospects for help at the Major League level, and even traded a couple of proven veterans to benefit their future.

And considering all that, it went pretty well. We learned that Josh Thole, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda and Dillon Gee deserve spots on Major League rosters, if not necessarily everyday roles or the jobs they are penciled in for in 2012.

In the Minors, the Mets’ top pitching prospects progressed, which is good. Most of their top offensive prospects (outside of the ones who cracked the Majors) did not. And in a way that’s not all bad, either. The Mets will not likely bank on the success of Fernando Martinez now after another injury-plagued and underwhelming season in Buffalo. It’d no doubt be a lot better if he busted out in 2011, but a firmer sense of Martinez’s chances gives the team more information with which to move forward.

There’s obviously plenty of work to be done before the Mets can comfortably field a functioning 2012 baseball team, and further work still before the Mets can field a contending baseball team. And when I suggested earlier that a team with the Mets’ resources should never have to entirely rebuild, I said “if running optimally,” which the Mets certainly were not for the latter years of Omar Minaya’s tenure.

All I mean to say is that the process — whether you want to call it rebuilding or retooling or renovating — has long since begun. It’s never going to be as obvious or unsubtle as a wrecking ball to the side of a Taco Bell, nor is there any sort of detonator the team’s front office can or will push to blow the whole thing up. It’s fluid.

Really, to many fans it appears the question of whether or not to rebuild in 2012 is linked only to the way the club should approach the futures of its two biggest stars, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

But signing Reyes to a long-term free-agent contract this offseason should in no way imply that the Mets expect to contend in 2012 and will make every effort to do so; it should only say that the Mets expect to Reyes to stay healthy and productive for a long enough time to benefit their next contender, even if that’s a couple of seasons away.

And trading Wright right now, coming off a down year, makes no sense at all. Even if the club wanted to admit to a full “rebuilding” phase — likely sacrificing some of the ticket and ad sales that allow it to maintain a large payroll — it would be better served waiting to see if Wright rebounds in 2012 before shipping him elsewhere for prospects.

The Mets’ front office appears (and has behaved) as if it is interested in developing a sustainable winner by fostering depth from within and putting faith in promising young players. It doesn’t matter what you call the process, only that the process is already underway.

In other words

I can practically promise you that no GM in baseball, given the option, would choose to run his team on a small budget, because is exceedingly hard to find and maintain a well-paying, high-profile job like Major League general manager if you are a crazy person.

Though spending tons of money on payroll and free-agent acquisitions may not always be the wisest way to build a winning baseball team, it is undoubtedly easier to construct a strong roster with the flexibility provided by a massive budget.

This offseason, like last offseason, Sandy Alderson will have to spend the limited resources he has at his disposal in the most efficient way he can figure. That has been the GM’s job since way before Moneyball — the book, the movie, or the events that inspired it.

That book tells an interesting story about the particular way that one particular general manager found to maximize his limited budget. Yes, Billy Beane sought players with high on-base percentages, but not because of the blinders-on SABR-worship people seem to believe he embodies. Beane wanted guys with high on-base percentages because that stat, he found, was at the time generally under-compensated relative to the extent to which it contributed to winning baseball.

That’s it. It’s not emblematic of “SABR <3 OBP” or anything like that. I’m sure if given the opportunity, Beane would have loved to sign players who also boasted high batting averages, played great defense and hit tons of home runs — any GM would. But he lacked the money with which to do so, so he identified an important component of winning that he could afford and pursued it.

Oh, whatever. I didn’t start writing this to summarize (and oversimplify) Moneyball. All I mean to say is this:

Common sense is not a dogma. Attempting to employ the best and most efficient practices to operate your baseball team means only that you’re a reasonable businessman, not any sort of zealot or brainwashed disciple of anyone or anything.

Stats and scouting are both just tools used by Major League front offices to evaluate baseball players. All teams use tools. All teams try to use the best tools at their disposal to identify players they believe will succeed. All teams have budgets.

No amount of finger-pointing and name-calling and talking-point regurgitating will make any of that untrue, and for every one or two or three examples of some specific way to build a successful baseball team there are as many counter-examples of successful baseball teams built some other way. The only indubitably true principle uniting the way all great teams are constructed is so obvious it’s laughable:

You want good players.

Preferably you want good, inexpensive players, so you can afford as many good players as possible. And you and I and Sandy Alderson might all have different ways to define what determines a good player, but the basic underlying truth is that you want players who will help you consistently score more runs than your opponent in some way or another. It’s really not rocket science.

 

What are sabermetrics?

It seems like this is coming up a lot lately, especially since the Moneyball movie came out. Instead of repeating myself more than I already do, I’m going to re-publish this post that originally ran on Nov. 1, 2010 — following Sandy Alderson’s introductory press conference.

A few years ago, I painted the interior walls of an apartment with a friend. Neither of us had ever endeavored a paint job of that magnitude before, but we figured it wasn’t exactly rocket science — tape the moldings, paint the walls.

The actual painting part wasn’t terrible, but taping all the edges turned out to be a huge pain in the ass. We spent at least as much time taping as we did painting, and the project took us about twice as long as we expected.

Just before we finished, the cable guy came. He complimented our paint job, and asked if we had taped up all the moldings. We said that we had, and he informed us to the existence of paint edgers, an inexpensive tool that paints the edges of walls without the need for all that tape.

We cursed ourselves for not doing more research and cursed fate (and probably Cablevision) for sending the cable guy so late in our process, but at no point did we curse the paint edger.

That’s why it’s a bit weird to me, as I sort through all the reactions to Sandy Alderson’s introductory press conference at Citi Field on Friday, that so many people seemed to get so riled up about sabermetrics.

For one thing, I don’t even know what “sabermetrics” means. I know it involves baseball and statistics, and I know that lots of people seem willing to speak or write on behalf of all so-called sabermetricians. But which stats define sabermetrics? It’s not batting average; we know that. Is it on-base percentage, or is that still too basic? It strikes me as strange that we should need a fancy term for those who recognize the merits of hitters that get on base often.

My understanding has always been that the numbers we throw under the umbrella of sabermetrics are those that aim to give us a more precise understanding of a player’s value than the so-called traditional ones on the back of a baseball card, and that “sabermetrics” itself refers to the pursuit of those more precise metrics.

The book Moneyball, contrary to widespread belief, was not just about sabermetrics. It was about a cash-strapped baseball team identifying an inefficiency in the market and taking advantage of it. Running a successful business.

So I get a bit confused when I see debate over when Alderson first started using sabermetrics, like he at some point flipped on a light switch to enact sabermetrics, and from there his team was a sabermetric team. I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work like that. All stats are just tools, and every team uses stats, among other tools, to evaluate players.

That’s all. No real point in getting frustrated about it. Some teams use the tape and some teams use the edger, and probably most teams use both depending on the circumstances, and everyone’s got an opinion on which option works better. The point is there’s no real good reason to get upset and say, “f@#$ you, it’s tape!” or to be all, “yield to the dominance of the edger!” because it’s really silly to get so worked up over tools.

If you hope Sandy Alderson uses sabermetrics and Moneyball to run the Mets, then great. If you hope he doesn’t, that’s fine too. Both of those words are just big sweeping labels assigned to reasonably simple concepts, and if you want to use them or not use them to describe what Alderson does as Mets GM, you know, whatever.

All I care is that he seems dedicated to running the team the right way, and appears apt to do so.