Mets Minor League Report: Matt den Dekker
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From the bad ideas department
Imperfect circumstances call for creative solutions, and in recent weeks the Mets have kicked around many ideas for 2012. In that spirit, a well-placed front office source said it is “a possibility” that the Mets will move Jason Bay to center field next year.
That remains far from likely, the source said, but its consideration is interesting in what it reveals about the Mets’ view of three players: Bay, Daniel Murphy and Angel Pagan….
As for Bay’s defense, advanced metrics and scouts agree that he is a good left fielder — but the scouts say that center could be challenging for him. One metric, defensive runs saved, rates Bay as the National League’s third-best left fielder, with two runs saved.
– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.
What? No.
Moving Jason Bay to center field is an idea so crazy it’s almost surreal — and not “crazy” as in “just crazy enough to work.” It’s just crazy enough to fail triumphantly.
For the last two seasons, Angel Pagan has been better than Jason Bay in just about every facet of the game. Pagan is a better fielder, a better hitter and a better baserunner. The only conceivable reason to replace Pagan with Bay would be if the team were desperate to save the $5 million or so Pagan will likely earn in arbitration. And even then they’d probably be better off with someone else in center, be it Jason Pridie or Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Scott Hairston or whoever.
Would moving Bay to center field help salvage his contract? No. While the offensive standards for center fielders are lower than they are for left fielders (though center fielders have outhit left fielders in 2011), Bay’s defense in center would likely be so awful that it would render him worthless.
If the Mets believe Murphy is a better option in left field than Bay in 2012, they should simply bench Bay. Moving him to the more difficult defensive position to somehow justify his poor hitting would… man, it makes my head hurt almost as much as the thought of an outfield manned by Murphy, Bay and Lucas Duda.
As for that one advanced defensive metric: Advanced defensive metrics kind of suck. They’re better than the other defensive metrics and they’re the best tool we have to try to objectively rate defenders, but a single-year’s worth of any of them means very little. They fluctuate too wildly. The same defensive metric cited above, defensive runs saved, put Bay at zero or less than zero in each of the past four seasons and has him at -12 for his career. Unless he magically got better in the outfield at age 32, his decent total in the stat this year is likely the product of randomness.
Fun fact: One advanced defensive metric, UZR, ranks Carlos Lee sixth among Major League left fielders with at least 500 innings in the position in 2011. Actually, according to defensive runs saved, Lee has been a much better defender than Bay this year. Presumably the Astros are considering moving Carlos Lee to center field next season.
I should probably ignore outlandish stories centered around ideas deemed “far from likely.” They’re obvious blogger-bait, and reacting to them only perpetuates the absurdity. But then everyone involved is looking for something to write about, and sometimes silly ideas help beat writers and bloggers both push the proverbial peanut.
So how about this? The Mets will consider moving Daniel Murphy to shortstop. It’s not going to happen… but it could!
Wally Backman on Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia
Fonzie’s big day
Twelve years ago today, Edgardo Alfonzo went 6-for-6 with three home runs. David Ferris looks back on Fonzie’s big day for SNY Why Guys. Best single-game offensive performance in Mets history? Has to be.
Next year
The Mets will inevitably make a bunch of moves, major and/or minor, before they break camp next April. But out of curiosity, I took a look at the players under team control for 2012.
Obviously there’ll be a ton of turnover at the fringes of the roster, and possibly a certain shortstop returning to the fold. But even if Sandy Alderson decides to Rip Van Winkle the offseason, the 2012 Mets should again score a lot of runs. With Ike Davis returning to first base, David Wright at third, Daniel Murphy somewhere and a host of decent if unspectacular hitters through the rest of the lineup, the club will likely boast another deep offense capable of maintaining rallies.
But one thing came up on the podcast last week: How long can the Mets keep carrying Jason Bay as an everyday corner outfielder? Can they really enter 2012 with a left fielder coming off two seasons like the ones Bay has suffered with the Mets?
Even this year, Bay has hit lefties well. The righty half of a left-field platoon is certainly not worth what Bay will be paid, but of course Bay will get his $18 million regardless of how he’s used. The Mets have a slew of Major League ready and near-ready lefty bats without obvious positions on next year’s club: Murphy and Lucas Duda already producing at the Major League level, and Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis in Triple-A.
Even if one of those guys emerges as the team’s regular right fielder, would the Mets be best served using another to split time with Bay in left? In between injuries, Martinez posted an .836 OPS against righties in Buffalo. Before shoulder surgery ended his season, Nieuwenhuis rocked a .986 mark in the split. Duda has mashed Major League righties to the tune of an .823 OPS in his short career, and Murphy a .793. As a point of comparison, Bay has a .579 OPS against righties in 2011.
Granted, none of those guys has established that he can be a Major League hitter as good as Bay was from 2004 to 2009, so the top priority should always be getting Bay straightened out and hoping he returns to something like his old form. But if that doesn’t happen and the Mets still want to be winning as many games as possible, they’d likely benefit from choosing a lefty to share at-bats in left field in 2012.
The Mets’ front office showed no fear of cutting bait on sunk costs last spring, but Bay is set to make as much as Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez combined and can likely still provide the team some value in a limited role. But if he’s inked in as an everyday starter for 2012, Bay looks like a pretty big hole in an otherwise solid lineup as long as he keeps performing (or not performing) like this.
LOLMets OMG amirite
A pack of junkyard dogs is roaming the sidewalks surrounding Citi Field, menacing visitors as they exit the ballpark.
“They came at me like a locomotive,” Elaine Feerick said, describing her encounter this month with a 70-pound pit bull and a shepherd mix “that looked like a wolf.”
It’s too bad the nine on the field don’t play nearly as aggressively as the canines outside, the beleaguered Met fan said.
“My friend, who’s terrified of dogs, ran for her life faster than I’ve ever seen her run before,” Feerick said. “I stood there and the pit bull rammed into me like a battering ram — amazingly, I did not go down.”
– Amber Sutherland and Jeremy Olshan, N.Y. Post.
This might be the New York Postiest article on record. It turns out “pack of junkyard dogs… menacing visitors” refers to one time one dog ran into one lady.
It’s all just a particularly silly salvo in the war between the people who like to make fun of the Mets and the people who like to make fun of those people.
Classless Mets subject sensitive poet to hurricane
The Mets placed Scott Hairston on the disabled list and called up 40-year-old pitcher Miguel Batista, who also writes poetry and detective fiction.
They also announced that the games on Saturday and Sunday are postponed, so if we don’t see Batista tonight, we won’t until at least Monday. No word yet on whether Batista will ultimately start in Jon Niese’s place, or if he believes he can find inspiration in the forthcoming hurricane.
Meanwhile, judging by the general panic level out on the streets of Manhattan, Metro-North is going to be a nightmare this afternoon. So I’m going to go get on that. You stay wherever you are and keep clicking around on this site. Maybe print out some classic TedQuarters material to read by candlelight if you lose power.
One more time, for emphasis
I’ve been through this several times before. One more time:
David Wright’s contract with the Mets includes a $16 million team option for 2013. This option belongs only to the Mets. If Wright were to be traded, the acquiring team would enjoy only one full season of his services under the terms of his current contract.
That means the Mets would be trading two years of David Wright to a team that would only get one year of David Wright. With bold text:
Mets trade: Two years of David Wright.
Team X receives: One year of David Wright.
Again: Team X, here, would have to trade enough to make the Mets willing to give up two years of Wright’s services, but for that, Team X would only get Wright for one season.
Is that clear? Because it strikes me as important, and almost no one brings it up when discussing whether the Mets should or will trade Wright.
Given the nature of Wright’s contract, the only way a deal between the Mets and Team X makes sense is if the clubs differ greatly in how they value the players involved.
If the Mets believe Wright is not worth $31 million over the next two seasons, they can deal him and free up payroll to spend elsewhere. If they think Wright is an unclutch loser, and if at board meetings Mets executives throw around sophisticated analysis like, “he is part of the problem, not part of the solution,” they can trade him for the sake of trading him and relish a fresh start with (presumably) inferior ballplayers.
None of that seems likely. And moving Wright now, coming off a season riddled by injury following two a touch below the superstar standard he established from 2005-2008, represents dealing him at the nadir of his value.
I imagine this is an utterly useless blog post, as most people bothering to read it already understand the various reasons the Mets should not and likely will not trade David Wright, and anyone who believes the Mets should trade Wright will argue he’s not worth the $31 million through 2013 anyway and they should get what they can for him now.
If you need me I’ll be over here, shouting to myself.
Select reactions from the WFAN Facebook page to the non-news about David Wright going through waivers, presented without editorial comment
See for yourself here. Check out Twinkie Town for a good primer on MLB’s waiver wire and August deals.
New Mostly Mets Podcast
Here’s this week’s Mostly Mets Podcast. It’s also on iTunes here.
You’ll note that after the first 40 minutes or so, there’s a distinct lack of me.
What happened was this: I went on a rant about the 2008 Mets that elevated the very form of podcasting to the realm of high art. It was so beautiful that Toby started weeping uncontrollably and his tears flooded his keyboard and shorted his computer. He didn’t realize we were no longer recording until after my sermon had swollen to its exquisite, revelatory climax and I passed out from its gravity, sort of like the guy in The Scarlet Letter.
So Toby and Patrick went back and re-recorded the second half here.
Tedquarters 