Reconstituted Meat

This feature, for the uninitiated, aims to satisfy our cravings for hot-stove information while recognizing it is for the most part nutritionally devoid. Today’s rumors three:

Teams are “kicking the tires” on Alfonso Soriano: First, note that Ken Rosenthal, who presents this information courtesy “a major league source,” gives us “kicking the tires” in quotes. I don’t know what to make of that. Does that mean it’s a direct quote from the source? Is it Rosenthal’s literary interpretation of making the little air-quotes with his fingers?

More importantly, when teams kick the tires on Alfonso Soriano, what do they expect will come out? Normally you hear of tires being kicked on frequently injured reclamation-project types, the Chris Youngs of the world. And maybe in those cases, all kidding aside, the term means only that the team is doing its due diligence: investigating all the necessary medical records, consulting doctors, and talking to kinesiologists, phrenologists and any other experts that might provide insight on whether the player will hold up for a full Major League season.

Soriano has had a series of minor injuries with the Cubs, but he played 137 games in 2011 and 147 in 2010. His issue isn’t health: It’s that he’s not very good. So unless a team thinks kicking his tires is going to shock him into walking more and becoming immune to the effects of time, he’s probably not going to be very valuable to anyone even if the Cubs do pick up a hefty chunk of his remaining contract.

A better way to put it might be that many teams are looking at the tires on Alfonso Soriano, and seeing that the treads are worn down and the sidewalls are scratched up and the tires probably were never as good as everyone said to begin with. Smart money says the Cubs would be pretty happy to get rid of him and any portion of his contract they can salvage, so maybe he does get moved. But he’s probably an emergency donut tire on a good team at this point.

The Marlins told C.J. Wilson they want him in their starting rotation: Man, the Marlins say a lot of things, don’t they? Lips grow loose after boozy nights of stone-crab claws and frozen cocktails in Miami Beach. Not for C.J. Wilson, of course: He’s str8-edge. But maybe Jeffrey Loria or some other member of the Marlins’ brass is one of those I-seriously-love-you-guys type of drinkers who doesn’t know when to shut up. “No, really, bro… whatever it takes. $160 million? Carl Crawford money? Anything, bro. Seriously, bro, I want you in our starting rotation, like, RIGHT NOW!”

And then the next morning: Oh man my head hurts, what the hell did I tell C.J. Wilson last night? I somehow forgot I operate the team that has never spent more than $60 million on payroll. Actually I think I’ve already blown our entire 2012 budget on stone-crab claws.

The last hot-stove rumor is actually an anti-rumor. But it’s so definitively worded that I thought it worth noting here. If you’re trafficking in rumors, it makes sense to qualify almost everything you write to cover your ass for when you’re wrong. So it’s refreshing to see something like this published on Dejan Kovacevic’s blog for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Let me skip past the newspaper-ese and spell this out a different way: If you just had the conversation I just had, you wouldn’t give another second of thought to [Andrew] McCutchen being traded.

Hat tip to MLBTradeRumors.com for various links. But I assume you’re already reading MLBTradeRumors.com.

Self-awareness fail

I reached Lucchino briefly in his office this morning. He said he couldn’t talk to me. He said there would be no announcement today.

I followed that up with, ‘‘Do you have any comment on how indecisive this makes you guys look?’’

‘‘Goodbye, Dan,’’ he answered. ‘‘Nice to talk to you.’’

Click.

Dial tone.

Dan Shaughnessy, Boston Globe.

I suspect Larry Lucchino was lying, and that it wasn’t actually nice to talk to Dan Shaughnessy.

Via Rob Neyer.

Matt Kemp badass

I’m going to go 50-50 next year. I’m telling you, y’all created a monster. I’m about to get back in the weight room super tough so I can be as strong as I was last year. … Forty-forty is tough, so 50-50 will be even tougher, but anything can happen. I have to set my limits high so I can try to get to them as much as I can. I’m going to try for 50-50, which has never been done. I’m serious. If I don’t [get there], it means I let y’all down and lied to you, and I don’t like being a liar. I know y’all are over there thinking I’m crazy, but hey, I’m trying to take it to another level.

Matt Kemp.

Awesome. I’m not sure I’ve mentioned it in this space, but Kemp’s one of my favorite players in the league. I was pretty disappointed to hear about his contract extension because it dashed my dreams of the Mets’ signing him next offseason, even if I knew how unlikely that was to begin with. The absurd terms of the deal made it a little more palatable, but still. Man is Matt Kemp sweet.

Via Big League Stew.

Reconstituted Meat

I’ve been thinking more about Patrick Flood’s “Too Much Bacon” post from the other day — not the down-the-road stuff about paying for Web content so much as Flood’s very valid point that the glut of hot-stove information is overwhelming and very likely driven by the pursuit of page views.

And it led me to another food metaphor, or at least a food-related metaphor. Anyone remember this incredible sequence from Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution?

Every part of it is amazing, obviously. Oliver thinks he’s going to shock these kids out of eating chicken nuggets, so he shows them the disgusting way in which some processed chicken nuggets are made. The kids appear duly grossed out until he puts the nuggets in front of them, when they all ultimately admit they’re hungry and want to eat the nuggets no matter how they were prepared.

So when considering the way I want to approach this blog during the hot-stove season, since it is nominally a sports blog affiliated with a sports network and since I do want to maintain some sort of sports-based bent on this site, I wonder: Who do I want to be, in this equation?

I don’t have the stomach to peddle nutritionally devoid nuggets to the hungry masses, no matter how tempting the profit line. And though I can understand the urge to scarf down those nuggets, I don’t really want to be the children either, chewing up and digesting everything in sight without considering the source.

But I also have no strong desire to be Jaime Oliver, tilting at windmills, preaching in vain to try to prevent people from catering to their most base instincts.

Most of my heroes are, well, trolls — those content to remain detached from the action and make fun of it. That probably reflects poorly on me, but it is what it is. Oliver’s show and this segment were introduced to me by Stephen Colbert, whose take on the nuggets bit was absolutely perfect.

All of that is a long-winded, sausage-factory (and excuse the mixed food metaphor) way of saying I probably shouldn’t ignore all the hot-stove stuff even if I think most of it is tiresome. And I think most consumers of offseason rumors would admit that they recognize how few of them come to pass and how little it all means, sort of like the way Oliver’s nugget-eating children guiltily smirk away their trans-fatty transgressions.

So I want to start indulging just a few of a the rumors a couple of times a week here: To examine their sources, their likelihood, and their potential benefits to the actors involved. Because hey, it’s baseball. It’s supposed to be fun. And we’re hungry.

I’ll probably settle into some sort of regular format eventually. Or I’ll get bored with the whole thing and scrap it entirely. Who knows? Check back often to find out!

Here we go:

Wait, but are the A’s also talking about it or are the Reds simply talking about it amongst themselves? And are we talking the Reds’ front-office decision-maker types here, or just like, members of the Reds, sitting around talking about how great it would be if they could make a deal for Andrew Bailey because they heard he makes awesome chili or is easy to fleece in poker or something?

Oh wait! The A’s are very willing to trade Bailey. Maybe the chili gives you disgusting gas. Actually the odds of Bailey being traded are about 100 percent, and he’s even more available than Gio Gonzalez — which makes sense because Gonzalez is younger, way better and under team control for longer, and maybe also, you know, seeing someone.

Anyway, it strikes me that maybe the A’s would be best served hanging on to Bailey, not just to troll reporters everywhere but also because there are a slew of free-agent closer options available this winter — many of whom are coming off injury or frequently injured. Let all those chips fall where they may, then when the chips get hurt, you’re holding the only chip. That’s just Moneyball, or something.

Oof, half dozen teams.

Jack Wilson can’t hit at all. I’ll confess I haven’t seen a ton of Wilson the last couple years and I don’t put too much stock in small-sample UZR data, but he’ll be 34 on Opening Day and he’d have to be among the best defensive middle infielders in baseball to be worth carrying his bat.

Seems hard to believe a half dozen teams would have more than a passing interest in the man, except maybe on a Minor League deal or in terms of like, “oh hey Jack Wilson’s still going? That’s interesting.” Of course it’s certainly possible, because more than a half dozen teams have done stranger things.

Red Sox sign Chorye Spoone: Wait, that’s a real guy? Dickens team? Dickens team.

Obligatory. Lyrics NSFW:

So how old is Albert Pujols really?

Over at Baseball Nation, Rob Neyer and Jason Brannon debate whether Albert Pujols could be older than his listed age.

Brannon — arguing that he is older — makes one very good point: If Pujols were admittedly 17 or older when he immigrated, he would have been ineligible for high-school baseball and thus unable to put his ridiculous awesomeness* on display for college coaches.

But Brannon keeps coming back to a couple of silly arguments, namely that Pujols supposedly lied to his wife about his age to get a date, and that there must have been a reason so many scouts missed on Pujols.

Telling little lies in pursuit of the opposite sex is a tradition that long pre-dates Pujols’ entrance to this country, and is in my opinion very, very different than lying about your age for professional gain. Not that it necessarily means Pujols didn’t lie about his baseball age, only that the two things probably have nothing to do with each other.

And as for the scouts, they straight-up screwed up. Even if Pujols were several years older than he claimed to be, he was still destined for a Hall of Fame career. Say Pujols is, I don’t know, 40 years old right now. Say he was 28 when he was playing JUCO ball in 1999 and 30 when he was ranked the 42nd best prospect by Baseball America. He was still on the brink of dominating Major League pitching for at least 11 seasons. That’s a massive whiff by scouts everywhere, no matter how old he was.

Also, Brannon notes that Pujols’ OPS+ has been in decline for four straight seasons, which is true. What he fails to mention is that the first two of those — 2008 and 2009 — were the best two of Pujols’ career by that stat, and they correspond with what are supposedly his age 28 and 29 seasons. So nothing really out of the ordinary there.

There’s certainly plenty of empirical evidence to suggest Pujols is older than he says he is: He looks it. But there were two dudes in my middle school with a full meadow of chest hair by seventh grade. (I know because their gym lockers were on either side of mine and it made me very uncomfortable.) Maybe Pujols is just one of those pubert guys, as unlikely as it seems.

Finally, I wonder to what extent it matters. Pujols is such a bizarre outlier in terms of talent and consistency and healing ability that maybe there’s some chance he is 35 and he’ll still be pretty awesome six or seven years from now anyway.

Or maybe he’s actually 31 and he’ll start falling apart sooner regardless. Until we have more concrete evidence, this is all just speculation — some of which might factor into some teams’ decisions while pursuing him on the open market, but none of which should affect the way we appreciate the tremendous things he has been doing for the last 11 seasons.

*- But the ridiculous awesomeness itself probably does not hold up as evidence of Pujols’ advanced age. This is Albert Pujols we’re talking about, no? We’ve all seen the Bryce Harper video, and Harper hasn’t yet proven to be a Top 10 All Time hitter. Smart money says Albert Pujols looked pretty damn impressive playing baseball at every age. And there are plenty of stories of various future greats needing to show birth certificates in Little League.

Obituary glosses over jockstrap accomplishments

There’s a good story in the Times about Irving Franklin, the founder of Frankin Sports who helped popularize the batting glove in Major League Baseball and died at age 93 on Thursday:

Batting gloves, like batting helmets, were a relatively late addition to the national pastime. Unlike the helmets, the gloves are not required. But players say they provide comfort, warmth, improved grip and shock absorption. They say gloves give them a more secure feeling about their grip, especially early in a swing.

Irving Franklin’s son, Larry, recalled Monday that his father was eager to get a top-flight player to endorse something his company made. He signed up Schmidt, who suggested batting gloves. They teamed up at spring training in 1983. Mr. Franklin contributed his knowledge of making sporting goods from leather; Schmidt gave a player’s view, as he continually criticized and tweaked designs.

It goes on like that, and details the way Franklin secured MLB’s designation as the league’s official batting glove, and how Mark McGwire eschewed big money from Nike to stay with Franklin for way less during his record-breaking season in 1998. Then there’s the very last paragraph of the story:

Irving Franklin was particularly pleased about his batting gloves because the name of his company was so easy to see when television cameras closed in on a hitter. His other official major league products, cups and supporters, were not.

Lead: buried.

 

Intolerable team signs detestable pitcher

According to about 8,000 different people on Twitter, the Phillies are close to signing or have already signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year deal worth $50 million.

Papelbon’s coming off a strong season and has always been a very good closer, outside of a shaky 2010 campaign. But a four-year deal with the Phillies will encompass his age 31-34 seasons and pay him handsomely to provide less than 70 innings a season.

If the deal goes through, the Phillies will have roughly $93 million committed to five players for 2013 — Papelbon, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Those are all great players, of course, but by then they’ll be an average age of around 34.

The Phillies have shown a willingness to spend a ton of money lately — their payroll neared $170 million in 2011, according to Cots. But I refuse to believe dedicating so much money to so many older players is a great way to sustain a winning franchise, and given that Howard and Utley are already showing signs of decline it’s not hard to see (and cross our fingers and hope for) all the ways in which the Phillies could crash and burn within the next couple of years.

Most Mets fans don’t want to believe that, I know, and will instead point to the Papelbon signing as an example of the rich getting richer — the Phillies forgoing their 2012 first-round pick to sign Proven Closer McGillicuddy and Win At All Costs because That’s What Winning Teams Do, Heart and Guts.

And in truth, given the likely limited time in which the Phillies have to take home another championship, maybe it’s not a terrible idea to go all in for another run or two before the payroll grows lousy with old men. But they can go screw anyway. And adding Papelbon, perhaps the game’s most revolting closer, just spews more flammable vomit on the smoldering puke pyre that upchucks its way to the top of the NL East every year.

And don’t even ask me how the flaming vomit could itself vomit. It’s the Phillies. They find a way.

Oh and you know Papelbon’s going to grow a chin beard now. It’s written in to the Phillies’ facial-hair policy, actually.

Me, writing elsewhere

Remember that stuff Patrick Flood wrote about his jumpshot in his long-ass David Wright thing? Sometimes I feel a little bit of that when I write outside the confines of this blog now. I am so comfortable writing for people who read this site regularly that when I think about writing for new audiences, I feel compelled to show them why they should read this site regularly, then I start worrying that I’m trying too hard, and on and on like that.

The good news is that usually once I stop thinking about who’s going to read what and actually start writing, things flow OK and I wind up with a piece I’m no more or less happy with than the posts I make here. All of which is a long-winded way to say you should go check out my guest column at Baseball Prospectus today.