The Lenny Dykstra saga continues

So I needed to do anything I could to protect my job, take care of my family. Do you have any idea how much money was at stake? Do you?… Real money, bro, there’s no way you can’t do everything and anything you can to maximize that.

Lenny Dykstra on steroids.

As Michael O’Keefe and Andy Martino point out in the linked piece, the revelation that Lenny Dykstra took steroids isn’t exactly breaking news. Randall Lane’s new book puts it in context with Dykstra’s personality and provides more evidence that Dykstra uses the word “bro” in about every other sentence, but Dykstra was named in the Mitchell Report.

I like this quote, though, because of the way it speaks to Dykstra’s motivations, and I assume the moviations of many of baseball’s steroid users. Major League Baseball is a massively competitive undertaking and its players are massively competitive people. Many of them were (and many probably still are) willing to jeopardize their longterm health for an additional edge, or, once steroids became pervasive, to be on even footing with their juiced-up brethren.

I wrote this about Dykstra last July:

Look at Lenny Dykstra. He’s a punchline now, filing for Chapter 11 after all that posturing about his financial wizardry. But the things that endeared Nails to the fans — that grit and hustle and desire that so many are looking for and that no one ever doubted in Dykstra — are likely the same qualities that prompted his downfall. Maybe Dykstra couldn’t stop competing, so he thrashed and flailed to stay afloat and took out loans all over town.

Is it a coincidence that, according to Moneyball, Billy Beane called Dykstra “perfectly designed, emotionally” for baseball? Probably. Is it a coincidence that Dykstra was named in the Mitchell Report?

Probably not. I don’t know the guy, and I’m certainly not here to say all steroid users are just like Dykstra, but no one stumbles backwards into the Major Leagues. It takes a ton of work, and anybody who completes that work has to be seriously driven.

It’s sad, really. Everything you read about Dykstra’s career in finance essentially tells of a narrow-minded man striving desperately to get ahead. When Dykstra did everything in his power to win on the baseball field, we celebrated it. He was one of the great dirty-uniform guys in Mets’ history. When Dykstra did everything in his power to win off the baseball field, it was tragic and pathetic. Probably not the type of reward he was used to for his mindset.

Did the offense go away?

The end of Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drugs era is causing 1960s flashbacks.

With the baseball season almost halfway complete, 23 major- league starting pitchers with at least 10 appearances have earned run averages below 3.00. In comparison, there were 12 in 1998, when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa’s season-long home-run duel marked the era of steroid use in the sport.

Mason Levinson, Bloomberg.com.

There’s been a ton of talk this season about how offense is down and how it’s “the Year of the Pitcher” and everything else. A lot of that has to do with the perfect games and no-hitters, but others have pointed to a league-wide decline in offense prompted by the end of the so-called Steroid Era.

I’m not buying it. But we have graphs to help us visualize data a little better, so I plotted out the league-average runs per game (per team) since 1980. It looks like this:

So yeah, runs are down a little this year. It’s important to note, though, that we’re only dealing with half a season worth of data for 2010, and that offense tends to pick up in the summer months as the weather heats up and balls carry more.

Plus, there’s a lot of noise here, enough so that a fluctuation of .15 runs per game really doesn’t seem all that strange.

Total runs are definitely down from the 5+ run years in 1999 and 2000, but they haven’t really been steadily decreasing since 2002. And baseball implemented tougher performance-enhancing drug testing in 2004.

And for all the talk that the steroid era prompted the offensive explosion of the late 90s and early aughts, it sure looks to me as if the big change came around 1993, when baseball expanded to Miami and (whoa, nelly) Colorado.

Did players happen to start juicing that same year, or did the watered down talent pool lead to more runs? Or is it a little from Column A, a little from Column B? And how much impact did Camden Yards (opened in 1992) and all the hitter-friendly parks that followed have?

Maybe the “Year of the Pitcher” in 2010 does have something to do with all the talented young pitchers that have entered the league. Or maybe it has to do with a few new pitcher-friendly parks, early-season weather, the recent emphasis on run prevention and random fluctuation.

Rob Neyer wrote about the same subject today and called it “a puzzle” that no one “has come close to putting together.”

But I wonder if there’s really one solution to be found, one distinct way to solve the puzzle. Neyer cites the interesting uptick in strikeouts this season, which is certainly interesting. Could that be due to better scouting thanks to better technologies? More thorough understandings of hitter tendencies? Or could it be the residual effect of years of work by people like Neyer himself to destigmatize the strikeout for hitters?

I’ve got nothing. All I know is that baseball is in constant flux, and strange and random things happen all the time. We’re still not even halfway through the season. I’m not ready to call this anything yet.

Pascucci gone off

It is a testament, I guess, to the Mets’ improved roster management that there’s really no place for Val Pascucci on the 2010 team. For once, they are not devoting a roster spot to a useless bench player that could easily be upgraded with a Quadruple-A masher like Boss. Even though Alex Cora is eminently replaceable, he can at least sort of play the middle infield and so is way more valuable to his club than Marlon Anderson was back in 2008.

But Pascucci soldiers on in Triple-A regardless. And what a show he’s giving the people of Buffalo.

Pascucci has 10 hits in his last 30 at-bats. Nine of them have been for extra bases. Six have been home runs. Over the stretch, he’s slashing .333/.412/.1.033. For the season, he has a .934 OPS. For his six-year Triple-A career, he’s at .907.

Quad-A mashers like Pascucci, and hell, all so-called “organizational” players fascinate me. Are they just ignorant of all the indicators that they’ll never have a Major League career, or do they persevere in spite of them? Does Val Pascucci love playing baseball enough to put up with the crappy accommodations and poor pay that come with the level, or does he shoulder them hoping he’ll finally get a shot, something a little longer than his ill-fated 62-at-bat cameo in 2004?

Who knows? Maybe Pascucci simply loves hitting home runs, and is just thrilled people keep paying him to do so. What a stud.

Oh, and Jesus Feliciano has two three-hit nights in the Major Leagues. No one can take those away from him, even if he’ll likely be the odd man out when Carlos Beltran returns. That’s kinda awesome.

Do the Mets have to trade Mejia to get Lee?

Reader Todd used the fancy new contact box (linked from the tab at the top right of this page) to send in a question:

Ted, I have to ask, why does the media always tries to perpetuate this notion that it will take the Mets’ best prospect to acquire anyone of note?

Everyone’s busily discussing whether or not they’d part with Mejia, however, a look at recent history suggests that’d be an overpayment.

Todd went on to reiterate (in greater detail) a point I made last week: the hauls for Lee in the recent past have never been overwhelming, and have never included a prospect of Mejia’s caliber.

I should note that this may all be a moot discussion if Mejia’s shoulder injury keeps him out for any extended period of time. But my response to Todd was similar to the point Tim Dierkes made at MLBTradeRumors.com this morning: It might not take a prospect of Mejia’s caliber to land Lee, but the dropoff between Mejia and the Mets’ next-best movable prospect is big enough that some other team would be able to land Lee if the Mets didn’t include Mejia.

Fernando Martinez has been injured for some parts of the season and struggled for the other parts. Reese Havens is injured. Brad Holt has been terrible. Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada and Jon Niese are important contributors to the Major League team. The Mets would have to build a deal around a prospect with less perceived upside, like Josh Thole, or a prospect who is further from the big leagues, like Wilmer Flores.

Since Lee isn’t owed a lot of money this season and comes with the draft picks for any acquiring team (assuming it doesn’t re-sign him), every contender can afford to make a play for him. And I find it difficult to believe that another MLB club wouldn’t better any package the Mets offered that didn’t include Mejia.

Of course, the trade market is a weird and fickle thing, and I didn’t think the Mets had the horses to land Johan Santana way back when.

Albert Pujols has no time for your pitiful exhibition

Pujols, who is almost certain to be voted in as the National League All-Star first baseman when the results are announced on Sunday,  said, “I don’t care if (Major League Baseball) asks.

“I did it three times (including last year in St. Louis) and I enjoyed it. I don’t feel like I want to do it this year.”

Pujols, an eight-time All Star so far, said he didn’t get fatigued participating in the Home Run Derby despite the many swings and several hours that are devoted to it.

“Doing the Home Run Derby doesn’t wear anybody out,” he said. “It didn’t wear me out.

“That’s just putting out an excuse.”

Rick Hummel, STLToday.com.

Weird article. So Albert Pujols doesn’t want to participate in the home-run derby, but it’s not because he fears it will tire him out or mess with his swing. He just doesn’t feel like it.

And you know what? I’m not here to doubt Albert Pujols. Being that awesome must be taxing, and baseball players just don’t get many days off. Maybe he would just appreciate an extra day of rest even if the derby wouldn’t tire him any further.

It’s a shame, though, because the pure spectacle of the Home Run Derby is my favorite part of the All-Star Weekend and Albert Pujols is pretty much my favorite part of living on earth, so it’d be cool if they could hook up again.

But all things considered, it’s better for Pujols to be fully happy and rested for the games that actually count. As long as he still feels like being the best hitter in baseball, I’ve got no complaints.

Pat Andriola on the fourth outfielder fallacy

The other is what I’d like to call the “Fourth Outfielder Fallacy.” This is the fallacy that just because a player can play all three outfield positions, he is best served as a fourth outfielder. Most of the time, said outfielder did come up as a bench player who rotated around the outfield positions, but after a good time of solid play, still couldn’t shed the title of “fourth outfielder.” Fans are human, and humans love consistency and purpose. Fourth outfielders make them comfortable. It also causes people to doubt whether or not a fourth outfielder could ever be a real starting outfielder, because, well, I don’t know if there’s a real logical reason as to why, but people still say it anyway. Angel Pagan may become the latest casualty of the Fourth Outfielder Fallacy. If so, we can only hope he’s the last.

Pat Andriola, Fangraphs.com.

Andriola makes this interesting point at the end of a solid post arguing for Angel Pagan to get more playing time than Jeff Francoeur once Carlos Beltran returns, a topic I’ve touched upon with some frequency.

But I link Andriola’s piece here because it deals with the labels fans — and sometimes teams — seem to assign to baseball players somewhat arbitrarily.

Jeff Francoeur is an “everyday player” even though he has been a comfortably below-average Major League right fielder for several seasons. Certainly he deserves to be praised for his impressive durability, but he has been an everyday player for his entire career only because the Braves were amazingly patient with his development.

Angel Pagan, like Andriola suggests, is a “fourth outfielder,” even though he has been a better player than Francoeur for the past year. Francoeur is a power hitter even though Pagan has a higher career slugging average.

Labels are meaningless; teams should play their best players as frequently as possible.

It’s all immaterial if Pagan doesn’t get healthy, of course. An injury is the only thing that should keep him from being an “everyday player,” at this point.

I brought this up in Spring Training in regards to Mike Jacobs and Chris Carter. Mike Jacobs was a Major Leaguer; Chris Carter was a Minor Leaguer. Sometimes these things have a way of sorting themselves out.

Where are the Puerto Rican players going?

There is frequent talk in baseball circles about creating an international draft to level the playing field, but it has just been talk. Until Puerto Rico is taken out of the draft, or everyone else is included, the trends are unlikely to change.

“Teams have moved on and put more money and scouting in Venezuela and the Dominican because it’s not part of the draft,” said Omar Minaya, the general manager of the Mets. “The key is that you’re getting more kids from the Dominican and Venezuela, and you have a hand in developing them.”…

By contrast, the Mets’ academy in the Dominican Republic, which opened in 2005, has already produced Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia and Ruben Tejada, who have all played in the major leagues.

Baseball has also pledged to support the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, said Noelia Lugo, the school’s executive director. The high school will open next year in the town of Florida with about 150 students and an English-language curriculum. Beltran has donated $2 million, about a quarter of the school’s cost, Lugo said.

Ken Belson, New York Times.

Lots and lots of interesting stuff here. I mentioned back in April that it seemed strange that there were so few Puerto Ricans on Major League rosters, and Belson offers an explanation why: Once Puerto Rican players were added to the draft in 1989, MLB teams had to wait until they turned 18 or graduated high school to take them, at which point they were competing with players from the continental U.S. the same with access to much better coaching and facilities. Dominican and Venezuelan players can be signed at 16 and brought up through team academies.

Also, Tejada is from Panama. It’s entirely believable that he went to the Mets’ Dominican academy and I have no reason to doubt Belson’s reporting, but assuming it’s true, man. Did Tejada really move from Panama to the D.R. at 16, then play in the Venezuelan league at 17, then onto the Florida State League at 18? That’s a well-traveled 20-year-old.

Finally, the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy. Awesome. All schools should teach kids to play baseball like Carlos Beltran.

On trading Mejia for Lee

I joined the guys at Seven Train to Shea last night to discuss the Mets’ approach to the trade deadline, among other things. They asked if I would trade Angel Pagan for Cliff Lee and I reiterated my opinion that Pagan is too good to be given up for a rental player, since the outfielder will be under team control through 2012.

Then they asked if I would trade Jenrry Mejia for Cliff Lee and I provided a rambling and incoherent response. Here’s what I wanted to get out:

Yes, if the Mets stay in this thing — and it appears that the Mets are staying in this thing — I would trade Jenrry Mejia for Lee. Pitching prospects are nearly impossible to rely on, even if they’re as talented as Mejia. No matter how good he looks now, Mejia is still only 20 years old and probably several years away from reaching his potential as a Major League starter. Many, many things can happen between now and then, things that could damn his prized, electric arm.

But I would trade Mejia with great reluctance, and not just the reluctance I express when the Mets trade any promising young player. Mejia appears to be the pitcher in the Mets’ system most likely to emerge as a frontline starter. An ace. And aces do not grow on trees.

Nor can aces reliably be found on the open market in free agency. By the time pitchers reach free agency they are generally in their early 30s, ready to begin declining. Yet due to the production they provided their prior club, they are given massive, lengthy contracts — often backloaded.

Thanks to a negotiating window, the Mets signed Johan Santana to a six-year extension at the market rate before he was even eligible for free agency, while he was still only 28. Now they’re on the hook for $77.5 million over the next three seasons, and Santana is beginning to show his age.

So when I hear reports that the Mets will only trade Mejia for Cliff Lee if Lee provides a negotiating window, I cringe. Lee will certainly not sign for less than what his agents believe to be fair market value. So instead of giving up their top pitching prospect to rent a great starter for a half season, the Mets would be giving up their top pitching prospect for the right to sign a guy to the same contract they could have given him as a free agent come the offseason, and a contract that will likely be an albatross in a few years.

Don’t get me wrong: Cliff Lee is amazing. But he will also be 32 by season’s end, and there’s no way he’ll be this good five years from now. And some team will be paying him as if he were.

That team should not be the Mets. Trade Mejia to rent the guy, sure, because world championships are invaluable and Lee significantly increases the chances of winning one. But don’t strive for the negotiating window. Let him walk and use the draft picks aggressively to try to find a guy who will develop into an ace in the future.

Jim Leyland’s ninth-favorite song is Mariah Carey’s “Hero”

Gary and Keith mentioned this story on air the other day and I couldn’t help but think how out-of-character it seemed for Jim Leyland — a guy who has always struck me as the most grizzled old baseball-manager type — to have a beautiful singing voice. I would have figured he just yelled “oh, horses***!” whenever anyone asks him to sing, because that seems like something grizzled old baseball men say a lot.

Anyway, it gets better. Turns out the article includes Jim Leyland’s Top 10 favorite songs. Most of them are doo-wop songs from the late 50s and early 60s, which I guess is predictable once you know Jim Leyland is a singer, because what the hell else would Jim Leyland sing?

But there are a couple of gems in there. For one, Mariah Carey’s “Hero” is ninth on the list. And fifth is this epically cheesy Survivor song I had somehow never heard before. Just imagine Jim Leyland singing along:

On the pitching market

I’m going to put aside Dan Haren for the purpose of this post. I figure he will — and should — cost a ton in prospects if the D-backs decide to deal him, and his contract is reasonable enough that teams with more premium prospects than the Mets can make a pitch for him if he becomes available. Plus I’m not certain why the D-backs would be eager to trade a great pitcher signed to a reasonable contract through 2012 with an option for 2013. Rebuilding processes don’t take that long; Haren should be part of Arizona’s long-term plans, not part of a firesale.

Instead I’d like to look at Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt, the two top-flight pitchers most frequently rumored to be available this season. Initially, I figured there was no way the Mississippi-born Oswalt would waive his no-trade clause to join the Mets, but he has since suggested he would. So dehumanizing this as much as possible, I want to compare Lee and Oswalt as commodities.

Lee is a better pitcher than Oswalt. By WAR, he has been worth 1.5 wins more than Oswalt in 2010. And Oswalt is enjoying his best season in three, so he’s more likely to regress in the second half of the season (though it’s hard to imagine Lee maintaining his historically good peripherals).

Frankly, I have no idea what either will cost. The Mariners traded three prospects for Lee in the offseason, only one of whom cracked Baseball America‘s Top 100 prospects list — Phillippe Aumont, who was No. 93.

But then teams don’t necessarily measure prospects the same way Baseball America does, plus that deal now looks like a complete fleecing. The Mariners were paying for a full year of Lee (plus the draft picks he’ll bring when he flees for free agency) and a team acquiring him now would be trading for a half season (plus the picks). But again, players seem to be worth more at the trade deadline than in the offseason, and it appears unlikely the Mariners will receive less value in young players than what they traded for Lee.

So in short, no clue. If I had to guess, I’d say it takes at least one high-end young player or prospect and 1-2 promising midrange guys for Lee, but that’s pure speculation.

But because Lee is signed to a reasonable deal that ends after this season and Oswalt is signed to an expensive deal that runs through 2011, there may be a disproportionate difference in their costs. Every competitive team could reasonably make a play for Lee, since none will be hamstrung by his contract. Only the teams that can afford to take on the $18 million guaranteed to Oswalt after 2010 can bid for his services.

That means there should be significantly more teams in the mix for Lee than for Oswalt. More competition means the Mariners can ask for more in return, driving Lee’s price higher.

So though Lee is inarguably better and would do more to help the Mets contend in 2010, it strikes me that the Mets might actually be better-served pursuing Oswalt. Granted, that assumes the Mets have — and will continue to have — some payroll flexibility, and I don’t know anything about their budget. But theoretically, the high salary should mean less to the Mets than most MLB clubs and the prospects — since they don’t have a whole lot of them — should mean more.

Of course, there’s that whole human element to consider. Oswalt has been the Astros’ ace for a long time now and certainly means a lot to that franchise. They may not be motivated to deal him — even with his big contract — without receiving top-flight talent in return. So again, who the hell knows? Consider this post useless.