Twitter Q&A

I’ve been struggling with some early-season writer’s block, so I turned to Twitter for some help. Here we go:

I’m going to go with a shoutout to Montgomery Brewster and say “none of the above.” Wright’s very unlikely to be traded this season, as I’ve covered here ad nauseum. And given Bay’s veteran status and salary, he seems more likely to get benched, pawned off somewhere or even straight-up released than sent to Triple-A.

As for Davis, well, I was hoping someone would ask about Davis and several people did. I’ve noticed suggestions that he should be sent to the Minors starting to creep their way into Twitter and comments sections (presumably they’ve come up on talk radio too, if that’s your fancy), but I didn’t want to dedicate a whole post to a few rogue Twitterers and commenters.

I don’t think Davis will get sent to the Minors and I don’t think he should. He has looked awful this season, no doubt. Yesterday’s double-header, in which he struck out three times and thrice left the bases loaded, might mark the low point of his young career. Plus there’s that looming, mysterious Valley Fever thing, even if he’s never been officially diagnosed with it and has never reported any symptoms.

But it’s April 24th, and three weeks ago many Mets fans and analysts likely would have guessed Davis would be the best player on the team in 2012. It’s way, way, way too soon to panic over a slump, no matter how deep. Davis’ swing features a ton of moving parts, so when he struggles it’s easy to get caught up in scout-speak and start diagnosing all his issues from our couches. Remember, though, that even when he’s going well, nothing about his swing looks particularly pretty until he makes contact. I’m not a scout or a hitting coach so this is far beyond my scope, but it sure looks like Davis’ timing is off right now.

Davis says the ankle injury that ended his 2011 isn’t affecting him now, and I have no reason not to believe that. I wouldn’t be shocked, though, if the five-month layoff prompted by that injury is partly responsible for his current drought. He has also seen fewer fastballs than he ever has before and suffered from what seems like an extremely unfortunate series of bad calls from umpires — none worse than last night.

There’s burgeoning talk that the book on Davis is out and pitchers need only throw him breaking balls in the low outside corner of the strike zone, but that’s way easier said than done. Presumably when Davis straightens himself out, he’ll have no trouble laying off the breaking stuff that misses low or outside and hitting anything that creeps over the plate. Just give it time.

Which is to say, I guess: Small sample size, small sample sample size…

No sooner than Memorial Day. Two months’ worth of games still represents a very small sample, but that’s generally a good benchmark for distinguishing total flukes from things that might actually be happening.

Sure. I think most Mets fans would have signed up for a .500 start, for one thing. For another, and knocking on wood with crossed fingers, nearly everyone is healthy. Andres Torres is the only regular sidelined, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis has done more than an adequate job filling in. And the big thing, to me, is that Johan Santana’s shoulder is still healthy. Every start he makes without a setback means another. That’s good news.

As for the 4-5-6 hitters, it’s really only Davis that can be called “non-existent” to date. It’s a tiny sample yet and both Jason Bay and Lucas Duda have been frustrating at times, but offensive totals are so far down around baseball that their numbers hold up well against players at their positions and batting order spots. Bay’s .776 OPS to date is more than 100 points higher than that of the average National League left fielder, and slightly better than the average NL fifth hitter. Duda’s .732 mark is a touch below the .759 standard for NL right fielders, but better than the .709 average for sixth hitters in the Senior Circuit in 2012.

And of course, it’s still that time of the year when a good night can lift a guy’s OPS by 70 points or more. There’s a song about that.

 

Satchel Paige pitched three innings at “59”

Another notable number came up after Tuesday’s game, when the sports-information company STATS LLC pointed out that the Rockies had listed Moyer’s age incorrectly, and that he was, in fact, a day older than the team had reported. You can’t talk about old pitchers and age discrepancies, however, without paying tribute to the undisputed king of both categories: Leroy “Satchel” Paige, the Negro Leagues ace and baseball folk hero. Moyer’s win on Tuesday was impressive, but Paige has him beat on one score, at least, by a decade. On September 25, 1965, Paige pitched three credible innings of baseball for the Kansas City Athletics against the Red Sox at the decidedly incredible reported age of fifty-nine—making him the oldest player to ever appear in a major-league game. He faced ten batters, recorded a strikeout, gave up just one hit (a double to Carl Yastrzemski), and was replaced at the start of the fourth inning, leaving the field to an ovation from the nine thousand or so fans in the stands who’d come to watch the A’s finish out a losing season.

Ian Crouch, The New Yorker.

Everything about Satchel Paige is awesome. Every day that goes by without a biopic getting made is an opportunity lost. Check out Larry Tye’s biography of the man if you haven’t yet.

I’d cast Dave Chappelle in the movie myself, but it’s probably worth noting that I’d cast Dave Chappelle in pretty much everything. Via Alex Belth.

 

Worcester Tornadoes complete Jose Canseco

The Worcester Tornadoes of the independent Can-Am League signed Jose Canseco, meaning his amazing tweets will presumably soon take on a New England flavor (actually, it appears they already have).

The Tornadoes open with a weekend road series in Newark starting May 17, then play the Rockland Boulders in Pomona, N.Y. the next week, so New York-area baseball fans with an appreciation for spectacle and things Jose Canseco does (which is redundant) should have an opportunity to check this out in about a month’s time, assuming Canseco’s affiliation with the Tornadoes holds.

Incidentally, the Can Am League home run record belongs to Eddie Lantigua, whose baseball-reference page will break your heart. Lantigua has played 13 games above A-ball, all of them in Double-A, and spent parts of 16 seasons playing in Indy Leagues.

After a year off in 2010, the Puerto Rican-born Lantigua returned to the Can Am League in 2011 as part of the NYSL Federals, a squad formed to give the Can Am League an even number of teams which had no home stadium, went 15-78 in its season of exclusively road games, and which has since folded.

Dear everybody

On July 31, with the St. Louis Cardinals — the team with the best record in the National League — in town, the Dodgers announced a crowd of 44,543 on a day the stands appeared closer to half-empty at the 56,000-seat stadium. They also announced attendance of 47,877 for a game three days earlier against the Cincinnati Reds, but huge chunks of the right-field pavilion and the new luxury seats beyond third base were unoccupied, with blocks of empty seats sprinkled throughout each level of the stadium….

National League teams announced an actual turnstile count through 1992, MLB spokesman Rich Levin said. But the National League and American League have since consolidated business operations, and Major League Baseball defines attendance as “tickets sold,” not “tickets used.”

“It’s because of revenue sharing,” Levin said. “That’s what we use in our official count.”

Bill Shaikin, L.A. Times, Aug. 23, 2005.

Dear everybody,

Very often a baseball team announces an attendance for a game that seems way higher than the number of people who are actually at the game. I realize this is funny or strange or concerning to you, so you note it in your blog or newspaper column or talk-radio monologue. But for better or worse, Major League teams announce the paid attendance at games — the number of tickets sold, not the number of asses in seats — and have, I believe, for every game since 1992.

So if the paid attendance figure seems to have no bearing on the number of people actually in attendance at a ballgame, you can feel free to either dismiss it entirely, or note it and mention without snark that the figure represents tickets sold, as per standard baseball practice and not any conspiracy peculiar to that baseball team.

I know you’re not actually listening to me, everybody, but I wish you would because you just keep bringing up this same distinction between announced attendance and actual attendance like you’re the first person to ever notice it, when meanwhile Maury Brown wrote a whole thing last year explaining why it happens and how it’s actually worse in other sports.

Good day, and I look forward to seeing photographs of your cats.

Thanks,
Ted

And that was already done

The Internet rules. Turns out last week Bill Parker did the research I wanted earlier, contextualizing that Jamie Moyer stat, and it’s awesome. Greg Maddux is the all-time leader in the figure. Moyer is third behind Maddux and Tom Glavine, so turns out the switching leagues thing didn’t mean as much as I thought it would.

Parker didn’t calculate the stat for Randy Johnson, but using his method I counted Johnson as having faced 1,367 of the 15,855 hitters in Major League history, some 40 shy of Moyer and good for 8.6% (Moyer has actually faced 8.9%).

Via @Ceetar.

Taste the cautious optimism

Doubters to the left: The Arrested Development reunion took another step toward reality on Tuesday when creator Mitch Hurwitz and several members of the cast appeared onstage together at a Netflix-sponsored event in Las Vegas. Speaking on the floor of the National Association of Broadcasters convention, Netflix chief Ted Sarandos confirmed that all ten episodes of Arrested’s long-awaited fourth season will premiere together on a single day sometime next year. Hurwitz also confirmed that production is set to begin this summer, but he also dropped a new nugget of information about what form the Arrested revival will take….

Hurwitz and the cast made no mention onstage of the rumored Arrested Development movie that’s been expected to follow the TV revival. He did, however, say he’d very much be open to a season five or six on Netflix. “We would love this to be the first first of many visits,” Hurwitz said. He also confirmed that Showtime, currently run by former Arrested exec producer David Nevins, had been in serious talks to acquire the show, but that ultimately Netflix offered a more interesting business model, as well as a base of already-loyal Arrested viewers.

Josef Adalian, Vulture.

Three things I really hope:

1) This actually happens.

2) It lives up to the show’s original run, which will be almost impossible since the show’s original run was just about perfect.

3) Showtime presented Hurwitz and his crew with a well-conceived and properly researched business model, then Netflix came in and won them over with a magic trick and a human model.