Mets over-under

Now we’re getting to the nitty-gritty. Speaking of: If you’ve got ideas for Mets over-unders, feel free to send them my way. I came up with 30-some when I first started and figured I’d certainly think up a handful more before Opening Day. But that hasn’t exactly worked out. Note: They must be something we can actually keep track of.

Context: Mike Nickeas, who appears set to be the Mets’ backup catcher in 2012, is lauded for his defense. He threw out four of 13 attempted basestealers last season (31 percent) but had a 38 percent rate in his Minor League career. The league average last season was 28 percent. Of catchers who caught in more than 30 games, seven were at or above 38 percent: Ivan Rodriguez, Henry Blanco, Kelly Shoppach, Miguel Montero, Rene Rivera, Chris Stewart and Lou Marson. Obviously the pitchers are a factor in this too.

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Fair national Mets preview

For the most part, it’s hard to point and laugh at anyone the Mets are planning on playing. There are competent players all around the field, and more than that, there are players who might have something of a future with their current team. But the organization can’t do much to help them out until some of the gigantic contract situations are resolved. It’s a team caught between two eras, but they aren’t doing all that bad, considering.

Grant Brisbee, SBNation.com.

Not surprisingly, Brisbee puts out the fairest national Mets preview I’ve seen yet, avoiding most of the overblown LOLMets memes and pointing out that seems like the front office knows what it’s doing.

Presenting: The Sandwich Bracket

Via Andrew comes this bracket-based tournament of sandwiches. I haven’t had lunch so it all sounds pretty delicious right about now, but I question some of the seeding here. McGriddle got a two and Muffuletta got a four? Actually, seems like there’s a lot of disrespect to the sandwiches of New Orleans across the board here. Maybe an RPI thing?

It’s my last day here in Port St. Lucie and I’ve been kind of busy banking some podcast stuff and hashing out something a little longer. Sorry if it has been quiet. Some notes:

– Matt Harvey threw 75 pitches and 58 strikes in a game on the Minor League side. The results are reasonably meaningless since Harvey was facing various levels of competition (and every time he allowed a baserunner, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese came in to bunt), but Harvey touched 96 on the gun and sat around 93 or 94. He makes throwing 96 look really easy, too. He said afterward that he was happy with his progress and that he felt like he has improved from his last Spring Training outing and from last year.

– Manny Acosta appears to be the fastest of the Mets’ relief pitchers. Don’t quote me on that, though I’m not sure why you would.

– Seems like it’s way quieter here on travel days then it was last year. David Wright returned today and answered 15 minutes’ worth of questions about his injury. You can hear most of it on MetsBlog.

 

Annual reminder that Spring Training stats mean very little

I’ve seen some Mets fans overreacting on Twitter — hard as that may be to believe — to Spring Training results the last few days, so I wanted to lay down the annual reminder that Grapefruit League stats mean almost nothing. Guys are working on things, guys are ironing out kinks, and guys are operating in small enough samples that they might luck into 50-some at-bats against mostly Minor League competition.

I went back through MLB.com’s Spring Training archive and cherry-picked some examples of Spring Training stats that look silly now. These are just for the Mets:

– In 2006, 36-year-old Jose Valentin posted a .143/.273/.250 line that looked a hell of a lot like the one from his woeful 2005 campaign. He wound up the Mets’ starting second baseman that year and hit .271/.330/.490.

– The next year, 37-year-old Valentin hit .321/.410/.642 in the Grapefruit League, then .241/.302/.373. David Newhan and Scott Schoeneweis both had great springs.

– In 2008, Mike Pelfrey allowed 19 earned runs in 21 Grapefruit League innings. He went on to have arguably the best season of his Major League career. Jorge Sosa, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell and Scott Schoeneweis combined to throw 46 2/3 innings with a 0.76 ERA, then later became members of the 2008 Mets’ bullpen (though only briefly for Parnell).

Do I really need to keep going with this? I’m already bored with it and I strongly suspect if you’re reading this site you know better than to put much stock in Spring Training stats.

I don’t want to say they mean nothing at all, since guys are vying to make the club and one of the ways the coaches assess them is by comparing their performance in Grapefruit League games. But Mike Pelfrey’s on the team. If you want to worry about his ERA, worry about his career rate, not the one he’s got in six Spring Training innings.

 

The unconditional glory phenomenon

Briefly: This is the day for filling out NCAA Tournament brackets, as you probably know. As you might also know, I have a horse in the race.

Every bracket I fill out will have the Georgetown Hoyas going all the way. I actually think they have a shot this year, but that has nothing to do with it. Every year Georgetown is in the Tournament, I pick them to win it all.

A bunch of people will be all, “Oh, well I have my team too, so what I do is fill out one bracket with my team winning and one bracket with the team I think will win,” like that’s some sort of genius innovation. It’s b.s. if you ask me. And it establishes a messy scenario in which I might stand to win money by my team losing, and I never want to face that.

I want unconditional glory: My team winning and, if at all possible, winning me a lot of money. Oh, and when Georgetown loses in the first round, I usually stop paying attention altogether.

Something happened and I missed it

I didn’t see Terry Collins’ rant/tirade/explosion/mild irritation today so I’m not going to pretend like I did. Your interpretation is as good as mine.

I do wonder, though, to what extent teams normally publicize minor Spring Training injuries like the ones that recently sidelined Andres Torres and Lucas Duda for a game apiece, to what extent they’re normally reported, and to what extent the Mets’ recent history of questionably handled and reported injuries impacts the way they disclose them now.

If Collins is frustrated, it suggests what the Mets are going through is atypical. But maybe he’s just caught up in the Spring Training bubble and wants his infielders.

(Anchorman quote)

I heard earlier this week that Mike Baxter said last year he was not comfortable playing center field, which seems important now that the Mets appear to be looking for a left-handed bat and a backup center fielder. So I asked Baxter about it.

“I heard the same thing,” he said. “And it’s not true.”

Baxter explained that when he got called up, the team asked him the positions where he’s most comfortable. He listed them in order of experience: Right field, then first base, then left field, then center.

“The best way to explain it is the repetitions,” he said. “If you’ve played twice as much at one position, you’re going to be more comfortable there.”

Baxter played 392 games in right, 150 at first, 73 in left and 43 in center in the Minors. He explained that he spent a lot of time in right simply because more heralded prospects like Will Venable commanded playing time in center. And he added that he felt no anxiousness or hesitance about playing center.

For what it’s worth, Baxter played third base and first base in college and even played an inning at second in a Minor League game in 2006. Baxter’s Single-A Fort Wayne team suffered a rash of injuries and had an 11 a.m. game, so he was forced into duty in the middle infield. He played an inning and recorded a putout on a caught stealing before the replacement infielder arrived to the stadium to take his place.