Mets over-under

Context: Right-handed pinch-hitter extraordinaire Scott Hairston is one of the Mets’ most pull-heavy hitters in recent memory. All seven of his home runs in 2011 went toward left field, as did all 10 of his home runs with the Padres in 2010. His last opposite-field shot came off Jason Grilli in Colorado in 2009, though by this chart he did hit one fly to right in 2011 that died in Citi Field’s now-adjusted Mo’s Zone.

[poll id=”65″]

Dale Thayer’s mustache is in the best shape of its life, and also no longer with Dale Thayer

When the Mets first cut Dale Thayer in June, I wrote:

Thayer will head to Buffalo, but where the mustache goes from here is anyone’s guess. Perhaps it catches on above another Major League lip or takes time off to travel.

Yesterday, the Mets tweeted a photo of lefty specialist and masterful videobomber Tim Byrdak sporting something that looks a hell of a lot like Dale Thayer’s rejuvenated, slightly retooled mustache, misidentified as a goatee:

Note that the facial-hair pattern in question does not connect on Byrdak’s chin, so it is not a Van Dyke or goatee but a horseshoe mustache. It is very clearly Dale Thayer’s mustache muscled up after a long offseason, proudly adorning the face of a pitcher much more likely to last the season with the big-league club.

 

From the Twitter: Trade Murph?

None of the above. I think the Mets are playing this one right.

Murphy does not look like a second baseman and suffered season-ending injuries in 2010 and 2011 while making plays at second*. But the Mets’ other options at second are Justin Turner, who’s not a great fielder himself and can’t hit like Murphy, Ronny Cedeno, who’s likely a much better fielder than both but can’t hit much at all, and Reese Havens, who hasn’t played a game above Double-A and has yet to stay healthy enough to play 100 games in a season.

Murphy will be 27 on Opening Day, has a 111 career OPS+ and is under team control through the end of the 2015 season. If he proves he can handle the keystone, he will be one of the team’s most valuable assets moving forward. The injuries and inexperience, combined with Murphy’s defensive reputation, are worrisome. But Murphy has never looked nearly as bad in the infield as he did in the outfield, and since he seems game for trying his hand at second, the experiment appears worthwhile.

It doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense to trade Ike Davis or David Wright right now, since both are arguably at the nadir of their value. Davis missed most of 2011 with a lingering ankle injury. Wright spent time on the disabled list with a broken bone in his back and endured the worst season of his excellent Major League career.

Also, and for the I’ve-lost-count-how-manyth time, the 2013 option in Wright’s contract belongs only to the Mets. If the Mets trade him at any point in the 2012 season, the acquiring team will get only a part-season’s worth of Wright (unless he signs an extension or agrees not to void the option) and compensate the Mets accordingly. If Wright enjoys Citi Field’s new dimensions and bounces back in 2012, the Mets can pick up his option after the World Series and trade him then (if for whatever reason they wanted to).

So think about this: They could trade Wright during the 2012 season and get back whatever some team is willing to give up for a part season of Wright, or trade him after the season and get both the full 2012 season’s worth of Wright and whatever some team is willing to give up for a full season of Wright.

Excuse the rough math, but I’m going to go ahead and guess that in all likelihood:

(Part season of David Wright on the Mets + package of players the Mets receive for a part season of Wright) < (Full season of David Wright on the Mets + package of players the Mets receive for a full season of Wright)

Unless some team is absolutely desperate at some point in the 2012 campaign and willing to blow the Mets away with a trade package, it just doesn’t seem likely Wright will get moved. Please, everyone, keep that in mind moving forward.

It makes no sense to trade David Wright this season. It makes no sense to trade David Wright this season. It makes no sense to traid David Wright this season.

*- I initially, incorrectly, had “while making double plays” here, but Twitterer @TLJNYM reminded me that Murph’s 2011 injury came while attempting to apply a tag on a stolen base. Then David Wright played shortstop.

Mets over-under

This one was on the original list I put together when starting this project, but I’m running it today because Aaron Gleeman set the exact same over-under in a post to Hardball Talk yesterday. I suppose it’s not terribly shocking: Gleeman seems like a reasonable guy and a fan of Johan Santana, and this seems like a reasonable, if perhaps optimistic, projection for Santana.

Context: Johan Santana missed all of 2011 following shoulder surgery. He threw a 29-pitch bullpen session yesterday and is scheduled to make his first spring start on March 5. Santana averaged 32 starts a season from 2004 to 2010, but he will be 33 by Opening Day. Several pitchers that endured the same anterior capsule surgery as Santana have struggled to return to the mound. But Santana is totally sweet.

[poll id=”62″]

This exists: Ultimate Tazer Ball

Last night’s Colbert Report introduced me to a sport called Ultimate Tazer Ball, which is pretty much exactly what it sounds like. I’ll defer all Ultimate Tazer Ball jokes to Stephen Colbert:

The Colbert Report Mon – Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Current Events – Ultimate Taser Ball
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog Video Archive

It’s called playing the percentages

The Don Mattingly of “Homer at the Bat” hit even closer to the mark. In August 1991, Yankees management ordered the team captain to cut his hair shorter. He refused, was benched by manager Stump Merrill, and fined $250, including $100 for every subsequent day that he didn’t cut his hair. “I’m overwhelmed by the pettiness of it,” Mattingly told reporters. “To me, long hair is down my back, touching my collar. I don’t feel my hair is messy.”

Six months later, when “Homer at the Bat” aired, Mattingly’s storyline centered around Mr. Burns’s insane interpretation of his first baseman’s “sideburns.” Mattingly is booted from the team, muttering as he walks away, “I still like him better than Steinbrenner.”

Most fans assumed that the show had cribbed from real-life events. In fact, Mr. Burns’s sociopathic infatuation with sideburns was inspired by showrunner Al Jean’s grandfather, who owned a hardware store in the ’70s and would constantly berate his employees for their excessive follicular growth. Mattingly had recorded his dialogue a full month before his dustup with the Yankees.

Erik Malinowski, Deadspin.com.

Y’all know I don’t throw around the term “must-read” that often, but if it ever applies, it’s here. Go read this now.

Longtime readers may remember that I briefly spoke with Mattingly about the episode a couple years ago.