About this

Here is another way to look at this: The Yanks felt similarly after the 1995 season about a young corner infielder with power (Russ Davis) and a talented lefty starter (Sterling Hitchcock) as the Mets feel now about the powerful Ike Davis and lefty Niese. The Yanks turned their duo into dynasty cornerstones Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson.

This is not advocating trades, but is a suggestion not to close avenues in favor of a marketing strategy.

Let’s focus a bit more on Davis to make this point. What do you think will be his best year, something like .275 with 30 homers? That is good. But it probably never makes him one of the 10 best first basemen in the game.

Joel Sherman, N.Y. Post.

A couple of people emailed me about this column so here’s this.

OK, on that last point first: By WAR, Davis is the 11th best first baseman in the league this season, right now. A lot of that is due to his defense per UZR, a stat known to fluctuate pretty wildly from year to year, but to the eye Davis has undoubtedly been pretty sharp at first base.

But even by offense-only stats like OPS, Davis falls right near the middle of the pack of Major League first basemen, though a bit on the short side. Of course, he’s doing it while playing half his games in Citi Field, while only 23 years old, and with only half a season above A-ball under his belt.

Davis may never be the best hitting first baseman in the Majors, but it is far too early to say he’ll never be among the best hitting first basemen in the Majors, nor that his defense won’t be enough to mitigate the difference between him and the top-tier offensive players at the position.

Also, for what it’s worth, if Davis hits .275 with 30 home runs and maintains his penchant for the base on balls, he almost certainly will be among the 10 best first basemen in the game offensively, provided the offensive environment remains anything like the way it is this year.

Now, all that said, I agree in some way with the general thrust of Sherman’s piece: Yes, the Mets should focus on winning over marketing. I write that all the time. 100% on board with that thesis. And yes, they should keep an open mind to all trade possibilities, even the ones including popular young players like Davis.

But though I recognize that comparing current players and situations to similar ones from the past is a fun and persistent part of sports analysis, it’s difficult to follow Sherman’s Davis/Niese:Davis/Hitchcock analogy through to its conclusion without realizing its massive faults.

Russ Davis was indeed a well-regarded prospect, but he was two years older than Ike Davis and had only 123 Major League plate appearances when the Yanks dealt him. Hitchcock, too, was older than Niese and, though his pedestrian 1995 showed promise, did not have a season in the bag as impressive as Niese’s 2010.

Plus, it should be noted that the Yankees held onto a different lefty in 1995: Andy Pettitte. They also neglected to trade Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada or Mariano Rivera, all of whom debuted that season, for Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson.

And that’s the thing, really: Drawing the comparison between the two is to ignore how the Yanks’ core of young players carried the team to championships, and to say that the Mets are only a Tino Martinez and a Jeff Nelson away from a World Series berth. Neither seems reasonable.

Besides, the Yankees have a luxury the Mets don’t, like it or not: a near-unlimited payroll.

It seems almost unconscionable to me that anyone could write an entire column suggesting the Mets consider trading their young players and not mention even once that those young players are all cost-controlled for the next several seasons, providing the Mets potentially productive players to field while they get out from under their albatross contracts and payroll flexibility once those contracts expire.

But all that said, again, Sherman’s right that they should consider everything. Plus he advocates trading for pieces that will help the club in the long term, which I support. The Mets should just think long and hard before they consider trading young, cost-controlled players that have proven they can hold their own in the Majors, since those aren’t all that easy to come by.

Sandwich of the Week

Concerned that my experience at Ricobene’s would set the bar unfairly high for whatever sandwich I next reviewed, so I wanted to go someplace I had eaten a few times before — not just so I could be certain my writeup would be fair, but also so I could recalibrate my own personal sandwich barometer, cast wildly off-kilter by the Windy City wonder.

Problem is, though I’ve been to Island Burgers and Shakes a bunch of times before, I’ve never gotten a firm handle on it. People keep telling me its amazing. When my wife — then girlfriend — and I were on a feverish search for the best burger in the city, magazines and websites kept hailing Island Burgers’ among the top.

But we were never overwhelmed. More on this to follow.

The sandwich: Duke’s Churasco from Island Burgers and Shakes, 51st and 9th in Manhattan.

The construction: A huge breast of blackened chicken with jack cheese and jalapenos on sliced sourdough bread.

I ordered mine with bacon even though bacon is not on the sandwich as the chef intended it. I figured, you know, why not? But when the sandwich showed up there was no bacon, and when I got the receipt I saw why. My waitress entered the sandwich into the computer and then hit the “without bacon” button instead of the “plus bacon” button, which shouldn’t have even applied in this situation since the sandwich doesn’t come with bacon, and probably just made some guy in the kitchen shrug and be all, “huh, guess this guy really doesn’t want bacon.” Oh, how wrong you are, some guy in the kitchen!

If I open a restaurant there won’t even be a “without bacon” button on the computer, since all we’ll be serving is big plates of bacon anyway. Also, if we only have one dish we probably don’t need a computer.

Important background information: I feel like Island Burgers and Shakes benefits from the Jeff Francoeur effect a bit. A lot of Mets fans accused the media of consciously protecting Francoeur because he’s a nice guy and a good quote, but I don’t think it was nearly that nefarious. When those things happen — and they happen all the time, everywhere — I don’t think people necessarily recognize what they’re doing. I think members of the media grow to really, genuinely like Francoeur because he’s a nice guy and a good quote, and so they look for all the ways in which he’s helping the team win because in their heads they want him to be helping the team win because they are subconsciously biased toward him. And so, it’s easy — he’s got an amazing arm, he’s athletic, he’s well-liked in the clubhouse, and on the rare occasion he gets a hold of one, whoa nelly.

The people at Island Burgers and Shakes are all exceptionally friendly. Plus they play great music, it’s clean and brightly decorated with surfer-themed memorabilia without feeling like it’s trying too hard, and it’s a Hell’s Kitchen staple. Oh, and you can smell their burgers from about a block away. This is a place that any reasonable burger and sandwich enthusiast would want very badly to excel in its art.

What it looks like:

How it tastes: Spicy.

Mostly just spicy. I like spicy, don’t get me wrong, and the Duke’s Churasco is a very pleasant variety of spicy — the blackened, Cajun brand that really clears out your nostrils.

And every element of this sandwich is good. The chicken breast was moist, well-seasoned and obviously fresh. The jalapenos, though spare, added more spice and some nice crunch. The sourdough was soft and tasty. The jack cheese added a creamy texture, though the flavor was a bit overpowered by the overwhelming spice from the chicken and jalapenos.

But I wanted something more. The Grub Street list I keep coming back to put this sandwich as 15th best in all of New York, and with that type of reputation I would hope for something a little less one-dimensional. There were pickles on the plate so I added those and some ketchup before plowing into the second half of the thing, and while they added some nice elements, by then I wasn’t tasting much anyway. A lot of spice on this thing, fellas.

What it’s worth: That’s the other thing. This sandwich cost $10.75. Throw in a soda and a tip and I wound up paying $18 for lunch. That’s three breaded steak sandwiches from Ricobene’s! Dammit, Ted, you promised you wouldn’t let it get to you. That’s why you came to this familiar place, remember? You’re back in Midtown now, and you’re going to pay more for sandwiches; that’s just how it is. You have to let Ricobene’s go or it will ruin you.

The rating: 74 out of 100. Calling this the Jeff Francoeur of sandwiches would be unfair; this sandwich is, despite its shortcomings, way above replacement-level and indeed still pretty good. That said, it is a bit overrated and overpriced, perhaps oversold due to some nebulous intangibles. I’m struggling to come up with a good baseball-player comp for this one. I want to say Ryan Howard but I think he’s better than a 74 in this weird, haphazard and totally arbitrary rating system. Like a poor man’s Ryan Howard of sandwiches, only spicier.



What to expect when you’re expecting Sanchez to suck

Mike Salfino reminds everyone how good Mark Sanchez looked in the playoffs. I think a lot of it has to do with how the running game does, which itself has a lot to do with how Matt Slauson fits into the offensive line. I know it has little to do with how the passing game looked in the preseason, because the NFL preseason is bupkus. Just a friendly reminder.

Now this is happening

OK, I promise I didn’t already know about Johan Santana’s forthcoming season-ending surgery when I argued earlier that the Mets should be looking for pitching help this offseason.

But the fact is this’ll make three straight years with surgery for Santana, and though he finished strong and his peripherals started picking up near the end of this campaign, it’s foolish to expect he’ll be fully healthy for all of 2011. He could be, of course, but he’ll be a 32-year-old pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm and a bunch of surgeries on his chart.

We’ll get back to this a billion times this offseason and there’s a bunch of interesting baseball to be played between now and then. Plus we’ll have a better sense of the market, of who’s available, of what Dillon Gee looks like across a few more Major League starts, how much public sentiment there’s going to be clamoring for Jenrry Mejia and everything else.

This doesn’t matter much for the 2010 Mets because nothing has mattered much for the 2010 Mets for a while, which is why we get all caught up in off-field nonsense, politics, media criticism, armchair psychoanalysis and everything else.

This matters for the 2011 Mets, though, and the 2012 and 2013 Mets too. The club owes Santana $77.5 million over the next three seasons, according to Cots, and if he’s not pitching for any prolonged stretch of that it makes Luis Castillo’s contract look like a bargain.

Sorry if I sound gloomy. Maybe the news will seem better when we have more of it.

I don’t think Ruben Tejada is as bad at hitting as everyone else does

Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.

Eno Sarris, Fangraphs.com.

Eno does a really nice job running down the Mets’ second-base situation, but I’m not sure he gives Tejada an entirely fair shake by saying he “has also eschewed the walk,” lumping him in with Joaquin Arias.

First of all, Arias walked in only about 4.3% of his Minor League plate appearances and Tejada walked in about 7.9%, a pretty big difference. But the major distinction is that Tejada did all his damage while always very young for his level — often the youngest player at his level, and a full year younger than Arias was as he progressed through the Minors.

Clearly Tejada’s not about to go all Alex Rodriguez on the Major Leagues or anything, but I’m just not ready to give up on him and say he won’t be a regular Major League middle infielder someday.

I don’t think that’s what Eno’s doing, but it seems like way too many Mets fans are willing to write Tejada off entirely just because the team has advanced him at a very young age to a level at which he cannot yet succeed. That’s not really his fault.

Plus, and not for nothing, it’s not like he’s completely embarrassing himself. Yes, he’s got a .188 average and no power to speak of. But he’s also suffering from a very low .221 batting average on balls in play, suggesting he has been victimized by a bit of bad luck. Plus, for whatever it’s worth, he’s still getting on base at a higher clip than three guys who were in the Mets’ hilarious Opening Day lineup (and just below two others).

And look: I don’t know that Ruben Tejada will ever turn into a productive Major League hitter or anything like that. I’m just saying that 200 plate appearances at age 20 mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. If he were in Double-A right now, where he’d still be young for the level, we’d probably be salivating over the kid and wondering why he wasn’t considered a bigger prospect.