No man but Carlos Beltran is Carlos Beltran, and there’s some chance Carlos Beltran is not a man at all. The jury is still out on if he’s superhuman.
But it is not reasonable to say, “oh, well, one center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran is the same as any other center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran,” which, by suggesting he’ll platoon switch-hitting Gary Matthews Jr. and switch-hitting Angel Pagan based on favorable matchups, is what Jerry Manuel is doing.
It has been three long years since Matthews posted a season as good as the one Pagan provided the Mets in 2009, and Matthews spent the final two of those toiling comfortably below the Major League replacement level. Perhaps there’s something to be said for a change of scenery, not to mention the switch to the easier league, but to think Matthews, at 35, could suddenly start again performing as well as Pagan did just last year on either side of the ball represents the type of logic that– oh, right. The Mets.
My apologies for the back-patting but I want to make a point. I’m going to do this Harper’s Index style.
Games Gary Matthews Jr. has started in center field: 8
Mets’ record in those eight games: 2-6
Number of the six losses that were by one run: 3
Matthews’ line in the one-run losses he started in center: .111/.333/.222
There are obviously a lot of small samples in play in that data. And because Angel Pagan ultimately replaced Matthews in one of those games and Matthews has started games at other positions, it’s difficult to quantify what type of difference Pagan might have made if he started all those contests.
But it’s not unreasonable to guess that the Mets might have a win or two more already if they had just inserted Pagan into the starting lineup on Opening Day, as just about everyone besides Jerry Manuel (and presumably Omar Minaya) was certain they should.
Because Angel Pagan is good. Better than Matthews even. By Fangraphs.com‘s WAR, Pagan has been the fifth-best player in the National League this season. By baseball-reference.com‘s version of the same stat, he’s third.
Pagan leads all center fielders in UZR in a season highlighted by several spectacular diving grabs. On offense, he has maintained a very similar level of production to his impressive 2009 campaign. And all over the field, he has avoided the type of mental mistakes that earned him the vitriol of a large fraction of Mets fans and media last season.
And according to Cot’s MLB Contracts, Pagan is arbitration-eligible and under the Mets’ control through the 2012 season. That’s excellent news.
The young outfielder has been plagued by a series of random and unfortunate injuries in his career, but Mets fans clamoring for the team to enter a bidding war for Carl Crawford next offseason should probably bite their tongues. Pagan and Crawford both play great defense and are nearly exactly the same age. Crawford’s having a great season, but his career line is .296/.336/.440. Pagan’s is .283/.337/.440.
Crawford steals a lot more bases and has been good for way longer, so he’s a more valuable commodity than Pagan. But Pagan has developed into a remarkably similar player, and granted health, the difference between the two in on-field production won’t come close to matching the difference in their salaries.
So in conclusion, Angel Pagan is better than Gary Matthews Jr. Hooray.
Tedquarters 
Before the season started while projecting out the Mets season, I calculated something so simple it made me laugh – Carlos Beltran was only worth 8 total bases more than Angel Pagan over the course of 2 months (Beltran’s projected DL time). And that was basically projecting Pagan to have a league average .334 wOBA (compared with his current .351 wOBA and stellar defense)…
Now don’t get me wrong – 8 bases is a lot and anything could have happened – projections are only projections. However, 8 total bases is 1 extra base a week for 2 months. One.
Whatever. For what it’s worth Pagan is on my list of Awesome…as most centerfielders are, but that’s something entirely different.
wow. Is it your job to do that? I am constantly amazed at the amount of homework people will give themselves. I do enjoy reading the results, though.
I guess if you like numerical sorts of enterprises, it’s just enjoyable. Perhaps you would hate, for example, reading all the 19th century novels you can get your hands on. Takes all kinds, as my mom always said.
loving Pagan. He’s definitely a starting OFer next season. I thought that this season we needed another OFer over the offseason to add power to the lineup (most likely Werth). However, I’m now pretty certain thats not going to happen. Most likely Beltran will be out there and we’ll only sign a backup OFer or perhaps just go with Francouer as the 4th guy.
What do you think, do you think we should upgrade at the OF spot? Or should we roll with pitching and try to solidify that rotation?
“Because Angel Pagan is good. Better than Matthews even. By Fangraphs.com’s WAR, Pagan has been the fifth-best player in the National League this season. By baseball-reference.com’s version of the same stat, he’s third…Pagan leads all center fielders in UZR in a season highlighted by several spectacular diving grabs.”
Wow. Someone needs to show Jerry Manuel this so he realizes just how silly he was for every trying to force GMJ into that spot, and so that he realizes just how much he’s giving up when he decides to play GMJ. To be fair, Manuel has let Pagan just play, so that’s really good, and I really like him in that 6th spot, acting as another guy to drive in runs (especially if Wright doesn’t come through), and as sort of another leadoff hitter for the bottom of the lineup- the bottom part of our lineup really delivered this past series.
I have really liked Pagan since he started with us. We were lucky to have him as a 4th outfielder. The base-running claptrap was just that, claptrap. There aren’t very many guys who can make you not miss Carlos Beltran so terribly much.
If he’s not starting in right, when Beltran gets back…god help him, I will straight murder Jerry Manuel with my mind.
Ted,
My Mom met Angel approx. 2 weeks ago. Anyway, since they met and she got a picture with him downtown, he has been a new player on a tear. This must be attributed soley to meeting my mother. Her positive aura has clearly engulfed him for the better and now he is performing at a high level for our beloved mets. keep up the great work.
Richie
Yay Richie’s Mom.