It’s like [Wright] is only capable of sustaining himself in two-week stretches… right now, he’s on another one of these hot streaks… the thing is, if this trend holds true, it means he’ll enter a new two-week slump starting this weekend… let’s hope that is not the case.
Wright’s tendency toward streakiness is a common point of discussion among Mets fans lately. It certainly seems like, as Matt writes, Wright endures two-week long slumps alternating with two-week long hot stretches.
What I wonder, though, is if there is any evidence — beyond just our perception — that any particular player is (pardon the oxymoron) consistently streakier than his peers. Is there greater variance in Wright’s production over short bursts, or are all players equally prone to streaks and slumps? Does Wright have higher highs and lower lows than most players, or do his simply get more attention because he’s very good and playing under a microscope, and because we’ve all decided in our heads that he’s streaky?
Over his first 13 games of 2008, Carlos Beltran posted a .959 OPS. Over his next 16, it was .553. In the following 16, it was .985. Then in the next 17, it was .718. After that he posted a 1.128 OPS over 17 games, then .668 for 19 games. He posted a .946 OPS his next 17, then, well, then he pretty much dominated for the remaining 36 games.
I picked that example off the top of my head because Beltran’s OPS and slash lines that season were vaguely similar to Wright’s in 2010. And obviously I’m using arbitrary endpoints at my convenience.
That’s sort of the point, though. If I had to guess, I would bet that all players are equally prone to hot stretches and cold stretches relative to their baseline performance. Obviously better hitters will get hot more frequently, stay hot longer, and produce more during hot stretches.
But I am not certain. We hear about streaky hitters all the time, but is there any hitter we could point to as stunningly consistent in his performance? If I had to guess, I would bet the only ones are the exceptionally awesome — Pujols, Bonds, etc. And even with those guys, you can isolate hot and cold streaks with a little creativity. Pujols posted a 1.017 OPS from April 5-May 6 this season, a .790 mark from May 7-29, and a 1.189 since then.
There must be a way to measure variance in week-to-week or month-to-month performance, and I want to know if there’s really any significant difference from player to player across the course of their careers. Get on it, science.
Tedquarters 
I think you are 100% right on here Ted, in that much of this is perception. Mets fans always seem to think just about Every Met player is ‘streaky’, which IMO is likely due to us watching them every day.
We then look at players on other teams and just assume that if a guy has a .320 avg, thats its consistent.
I’d bet if you looked at many of the top players in the game, you’d see alot of steakyness just the same.
An ex- once said to me, “Bad things come in threes.” I replied, “Well, yes — if you measure them in groups of three.”
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If you were going to do this it would seem that what you want to measure is something akin to the monthly variance around a player’s career OPS. (Or, if you want to remain faithful to Cerrone’s formulation — bi-weekly.)