Joel Pineiro particularly intriguing

According to Adam Rubin, the Mets are “particularly intrigued” by Joel Pineiro.

It makes sense, because Joel Pineiro is particularly intriguing. Not necessarily as an answer in the Mets’ rotation, but just in general.

Looking at Pineiro’s counting stats, I’d immediately dismiss him as a potential free-agent fit. After all, he’s 31 and coming off his only decent year since 2003. Plus he doesn’t really strike anybody out.

But Fangraphs paints a more interesting picture, as it often does. Turns out Pineiro pretty decidedly changed his approach in 2009, confirming various reports. He threw way more fastballs (sinking ones, no less) than he ever did before — which probably contributed to his miniscule walk totals — and so, predictably, induced more contact.

His groundball rate went from hovering in the mid-to-high 40s to an outstanding 60.5 percent, dropping his line-drive and flyball rates accordingly. He cut his home runs per flyball rate in half.

There’s probably some luck and randomness in there, but Pineiro pretty clearly figured out a way to pitch to bad contact more effectively than he ever had before. Simply put, batters just didn’t hit him hard.

Whether that’s sustainable is something else entirely. Pineiro succeeded under Cardinals pitching guru Dave Duncan, and, like I said before, doesn’t have much of a track record to fall back on.

Essentially I just wanted to throw out the idea that Pineiro could be more than a one-year wonder. I’d expect him to regress toward his mean, but, assuming he can maintain his adjusted approach, be a pretty decent pitcher in the next couple of seasons.

The Mets could do a whole lot worse, in other words.

Also, for what it’s worth, I had a video game once in which Pineiro always ended up a Hall of Famer when you played in franchise mode. So there’s that.

Items of note

Howard Megdal votes no on Chone Figgins. Sam Page is ambivalent, and points to Figgins’ “really cool name,” an excellent point. I refuse to pronounce it “Shawn,” for what it’s worth. I much prefer to say it phonetically with a terrible cockney accent, along the lines of “I’m Chone Figgins, I am, I am” and maybe throw in a “guv’nah” in there, too.

Also, someone clearly needs to put Chone Figgins, Lastings Milledge and Norris Hopper on the same team to field an All-Dickens-name outfield.

Rich Zuckerman, SNY.tv Knicks columnist and lauded ass-kicking machine, says Allen Iverson is not The Answer for the Knicks. I think it just depends on the question. If it’s “Would I be more likely to watch Knicks games if Allen Iverson was playing?” then, well, yes.

Scientists say people who believe the world will end in 2012 are crazy. Darren Daulton replies, “STEAK! STEAK! RADIO!”

The problem with “winning now”

Anyone who has read this space with any consistency knows how I feel about the Mets trading away prospects this offseason, but I’ll reiterate for newcomers. (And because I just don’t have much else to say today.)

There is a time and place to trade prospects.

Fans of almost every Major League club overvalue their team’s prospects, because — mostly thanks to the Internet, I imagine — we now follow them from the moment of their signing to the time they arrive in the big leagues or leave the organization. But prospects are never sure things, and many, many of the players that appear most bound for success, either mechanically or statistically, never turn into Major Leaguers.

So yeah, sometimes a team is best served by moving one or a couple of its best young players for an established star. If a team feels it is one piece away and a star player could be had at a reasonable cost, then yeah, pull the trigger.

For the Mets, this is not one of those times.

Obviously it’s best to evaluate such deals on a case-by-case basis, as no deal could be properly assessed without knowledge of the specific players involved. But the problem with established Major Leaguers is that they usually cost big money, and the Mets are already close to their reported budget.

A trade for Roy Halladay would be exciting, for sure. It’d give the Mets an unbelievable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

But a trade for Roy Halladay would also be a trade for about $20 million a year for the next several years. And that gives the team a whole lot less flexibility to fill its countless other holes moving forward, including a couple in that same starting rotation.

Many will argue that the Mets are “built to win now” and so must go all-in to compete in 2010, since they will inevitably crumble after 2011 when Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes will, barring extensions, become free agents.

Guess what? That’s nonsense.

The only thing that could make the Mets a “win-now” club is committing to that philosophy. To say that the Mets must win in 2010 would be to know for certain that not a single one of their current prospects will be contributing at the Major League level by 2011.

That’s a possibility, of course. There’s always the chance that none of Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Reese Havens, Brad Holt and Ruben Tejada pan out. I’m optimistic that at least a couple of them will, but then again, I’m a Mets fan. I overvalue their young players.

And with young players, there are few guarantees.

There is this one, though: For the first few years of their Major League tenure, players are always inexpensive. And with the recent trend of teams locking up young players to long-term extensions, Major League contributors can often be secured for a reasonable price beyond their arbitration years and deep into their primes.

And that, for about the millionth time, is what the Mets need. That’s what allows a team to free up cash for when the right free agents are available, and to take on payroll when a big-name player is available via trade.

Mortgaging the future for the opportunity to win in the present might work, at times, for small-market teams on the verge of losing a slew of stars to free agency. But a team with the Mets’ payroll should never have to.

A team with the Mets’ payroll should be built to win every single year, because making the playoffs — no matter how strong the club — doesn’t come anywhere close to guaranteeing a World Series victory.

The best way to do that is to make the postseason as frequently as possible, and so no team with the Mets’ means should ever build to “win now.” It is the very definition of short-sighted thinking.

The fantasy spin

After taking a knee on the one-yard line to secure a victory for the Jaguars yesterday, Maurice Jones-Drew apologized to his fantasy owners.

It’s a particularly hilarious thing to say, and as a Maurice Jones-Drew owner who lost by exactly the difference the touchdown would have made, I appreciate the sentiment.

In the hands of a professional like Jones-Drew, it’s fine. He was obviously kidding, plus his point was that the win was more important to him than the touchdown. But the fact that he mentioned it — even jokingly — shows the way fantasy-football analysis has spiraled out of control.

I’m so sick of the fantasy spin. When an important player gets hurt, it feels like the first thing ESPN tells me is the fantasy implications. And that’s about the last thing I want to hear about.

I want to hear about what it means to his team, and what it means to my team, and what bearing it has on the race for the playoffs. Excuse me for actually caring about real football.

I know this makes me sound like a curmudgeon, too. But whatever. Allow me to continue curmudging.

Too often, it seems like the NFL has become Fantasy Fantasy Football, where players are arbitrarily assigned to teams with other guys who may or may not help them score more points in your league.

And I get that fantasy has contributed a ton to the NFL’s success, plus plays a big role in the web ventures of just about every network covering football. And heck, I like playing fantasy football, because it’s a fun excuse to be able to say really mean things to friends and co-workers.

I just don’t want to hear about it so damn often. Tell me what’s happening in the actual game, not in the games surrounding the game. Break down a coverage, examine a blocking scheme, analyze a blitz package. Help me understand which teams are actually better than the other teams, not just which players will rack up the most impressive fantasy stats.

Items of note

Alan Schwarz at the Times discusses the widening gap between the A.L. and N.L. and how it’s affecting the offseason market. American Mustache Hero Jay Jaffe has demonstrated statistically the very real gap between the leagues, but the examples cited in Schwarz’ piece seem either extreme or illusory.

Javier Vazquez had a great, career year in 2009 and likely benefited from changing leagues, but also had some terrible luck in 2008. John Smoltz was just returning from a lengthy injury with the Red Sox in 2009, so he could have been getting stronger as he improved with the Cardinals.

Which isn’t to say it’s not there. It is, as Jay showed. But I just don’t think GMs should be putting too much stock into the split when it comes to player evaluation.

Theo Fleury’s years in New York were far, far more interesting than I realized.

Mike D’Antoni referred to the Knicks as “zombies.” I assume he means the classic, lurching version of the undead and not the fast type seen in 28 Days Later. Either way, I can’t really think of an image scarier than Zombie Eddy Curry. Dude hungers for a whole lot of brains.

How ’bout them Hoyas?

Steven Pinker manages to favorably review Malcolm Gladwell’s new book while completely blowing up his spot. Hat tip to my mom for the link.

Fernandomania

Michael Baron at MetsBlog suggested the Mets bring back Fernando Tatis next year and, predictably, met a lot of animosity in the site’s comments section.

Tatis became something of a lightning rod for angry Mets fans in 2009 for a number of reasons. For one, he endured a ridiculous stretch from May 31 to June 24 during which he somehow hit into nine double plays in 45 at-bats, or one double play every five at-bats. That’s nuts.

A lot of that had to do, I would guess, with how frequently Tatis was hitting behind David Wright, and how often Wright was getting on first base during that stretch of the season. Either way, Tatis finished up the season with 13 GDPs in 340 at-bats — not the most impressive rate in the world, but one reasonable enough to suggest the rough stretch was mostly due to an unbelievable run of bad luck.

More of the distaste toward Tatis, I think, had to do with how often it seemed he was playing in favor of someone more exciting, whether it was Daniel Murphy at the start of the year or Nick Evans at the end. I get that and I felt the same way; we have little more to learn about Tatis, and it was baffling when, at the end of the clearly lost season, Nick Evans sat on the bench overlooked while Tatis played nearly every day.

But it’s not really fair to pin that on Tatis. It’s not his job to refuse assignments so fans could see more of younger players.

And because Tatis was pressed into so much duty in 2009, it’s easy to forget just how valuable a bench player he is. Tatis actually played average to above average defense at every single position the Mets put him in 2009, including a statistically — albeit in a tiny sample size — better second base than Luis Castillo, Alex Cora and Anderson Hernandez.

Plus, Tatis can hit a little bit. He posted a respectable .777 OPS for the Mets in 2009, and given his career lines, that’s probably a reasonable indication of what he can do at the plate.

Simply put, Tatis is a good player to have on the bench. I kill Omar Minaya pretty frequently in this space for the way he fills out the margins of his roster, but he did a great job identifying Tatis’ ability and rescuing him from the scrap heap before the 2007 season. And Tatis was likely worth well more than the $1.7 million he earned in 2009.

There’s nothing really exciting about Tatis, plus he’ll be 35 on New Year’s Day, so it’s difficult to advocate his return to a team that should be moving toward youth.

There was no good excuse for Jerry Manuel playing Tatis over Evans with so much frequently when the team should have been assessing whether Evans could be a right-handed platoon bat in 2010. But now that it happened — now that the team doesn’t have any real way of knowing whether Evans is ready to hit Major League pitching — the Mets could do a lot worse than bringing back Tatis for 2010, assuming a reasonable price tag. His defensive versatility alone makes him a useful cog, and it’s not at all his fault that he was forced into so much playing time in 2009.

French fried

So word is the Mets are bringing back Jeff Francoeur, and that’s no surprise. I have been down on Francoeur since the trade, but it’s fair to argue he earned a shot at a second go-round with the team with his solid half-season in 2009.

Plus, the way a large portion of Mets fans took to the guy, benching him or parting with him before 2010 would be akin to doing the same with Daniel Murphy before 2009. The team is backed into the corner by fan perception. We could argue that there are reasons not to bring Francoeur back, but it’d be pointless. There was really no way the Mets weren’t going to open 2010 with Francoeur in right field.

The more alarming thing about Bart Hubbuch’s tweet linked above, though, is the part that says the Mets “wouldn’t rule out a contract extension.”

OK, that’s where we start pushing into the realm of terrible, horrible, no-good ideas. Handing Jeff Francoeur a multi-year extension based on what he did for the Mets would be like punching common sense in the face.

Jeff Francoeur was pretty good for the Mets over 289 at-bats. Before those 289 at-bats, he had been downright terrible for the Braves for a year and a half and well below average for a right fielder for the two seasons before that.

Sample size. Sample size. Sample size.

If Francoeur’s turnaround is real, the Mets will have plenty of time to sign him to an extension during the 2010 season, after he’s proven he can maintain the necessary level of production. Signing him to an extension anytime before that would indicate a reckless disregard for history.

From the Wikipedia: Thor

From the Wikipedia: Thor

Thor, as you may know, is the god of thunder in Germanic and Norse mythology. Traditionally, he is depicted as a bearded redhead. Tales of his exploits dominated Germanic documents from the dawn of written language in the area until the late Viking age, because Vikings obviously recognized how awesome Thor was.

Thor is the son of Odin, the king of the gods, and Jörd, who was a Jötunn, or frost giant. He married Sif, a human female, but kept a Jötunn mistress named Járnsaxa, because Thor apparently had an Oedipal thing going on.

Thor’s weapon of choice was his Mjöllnir, which was way, way more than an ordinary hammer. In addition to performing the usual nail-driving stuff, it was capable of leveling mountains, plus featured a boomerang-like quality by which it would always return to Thor after he threw it at someone or something that had earned his wrath. Also, it could emit lightning bolts.

Thor traveled in style, of course, on a chariot pulled by regenerating goats from which Thor would eat whenever he got hungry. The goats were presumably stabled in the garage of Thor’s 540-room mansion at Asgard, not too far from Valhalla.

Thor’s Wikipedia page is positively rife with information, which makes perfect sense, as a Venn diagram of Wikipedia editors and Folklore and Mythology majors would yield concentric circles.

Thor’s life was replete with drinking contests, cross-dressing, competitive eating, and umlauts, and thus was not unlike my cöllege career. According to legend, he will die at Ragnarok, the Germanic-mythological equivalent of judgment day, but only after killing his arch-nemesis Jörmungandr the serpent.

I don’t want to delve too deeply into religion here, since obviously it’s a sensitive issue to a lot of people, but from a purely anthropological standpoint it always baffles me that monotheistic religions have so dominated polytheistic ones in the West. I feel like I’d get so much more geared up to go to church if I was going there to learn about a bunch of hammer-wielding, lightning-tossing badasses like Thor.

For that matter, it strikes me as at least a little bit strange that we read The Odyssey in high-school English classes but the Bible or Torah or Quran would obviously be off-limits, even just as historical texts. I’m not complaining because I thought The Odyssey was awesome, but it is so closely wrapped up with a religion, even if it is a mostly defunct one. Do we separate church and state or do we separate one specific type of church and state? And, if the latter is the case, isn’t that akin to the state endorsing that type of church?

I know that sounds ridiculous in the case of The Odyssey, but my 9th-grade class also read Siddhartha, which is most decidedly a book about a very active and popular religion.
I also enjoyed that book very much so I’m certainly not advocating denying it to our nation’s ninth graders. Don’t mistake anything here as any sort of political stance on anything. I’m just sayin’s all.

As for Thor, he is currently passing the time before Ragnarok as an NFL defensive coordinator. And my, has he let himself go.

(Slams head against desk)

Mike Silva of NY Baseball Digest spoke to a “high-ranking official with one of the 30 big-league clubs” about the concepts stated in the book Moneyball (sort of), and the executive said this:

Moneyball geniuses have flopped like DePodesta, Ricciardi, and even the infamous Billy Beane whose exploits have all lacked a World Series trophy. It is all a tool to be used by the uninitiated. I’ll take a good scout and player development people anytime; the statistics are very secondary. How do you account a .220 hitter for being the hero of the World Series or a guy who hits three home runs a year wins the pennant clincher with a home run?

With all due respect to this high-ranking official, this high-ranking official is a dunce.

I do not pretend to have “all the answers,” as Silva suggests many sabermetricians do. I have far more questions than answers, and I’ve never said otherwise.

I know this for sure, though: If you don’t understand why a .220 hitter could be the hero of the World Series or a guy who hits three home runs a year can win the pennant-clincher with a home run, you do not deserve to be a high-ranking official with one of the 30 big-league clubs.

And to him, I’d ask the same question so frequently lobbed at sabermetricians from sanctimonious and misguided old-school baseball minds:

Do you even watch the game?

Or are you suggesting to me that a seeing-eye single is somehow the product of a player’s skill or will? Are you saying that a hard-struck line drive hit right at the shortstop is bad form, not bad luck? Do you really mean to tell me that some .220 hitter — some guy who can’t hit better than .220 in the regular season — can actually magically make himself a better player when it counts more? Good lord, if someone had the ability to make himself a better player when it counted, why wouldn’t he do it all the time? Is there somehow really not enough pressure in a regular-season for that .220 hitter to morph into Albert Pujols? And in that case, wouldn’t he be the exact type of player you’d label a headcase and eschew from baseball?

It’s random. It’s a random game and a random world and randomness pervades everything. Sometimes things don’t need explanations. They just happen, especially in extremely small sample sizes.

I really don’t even want to fight this battle anymore. I recognize that some people will never agree, and they’ll just think A-Rod magically became clutch this year after being unclutch for three postseasons and clutch in the two before those. I mean, hey, it’s the magic of Kate Hudson!

But I bring it up here because it’s scares the crap out of me that people like the guy Silva quotes — who not only demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what Moneyball was really about, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of the way baseball actually works, not to mention a fundamental misunderstanding of the rules of standard written English — are in positions to make decisions for the baseball teams we all love. It’s a pitch-perfect justification of what I wrote about yesterday, asserting that people in Major League front-offices screw things up all the time.

And holy crap, no one ever said that book was about canning every scout and letting calculators make decisions. It wasn’t called Numbersball. It was about exploiting market inefficiency, and just because Beane hasn’t done a good job of it over the past few years doesn’t mean GAGLWEJHRKJ^@#$. I’m done.

“Dadadadadadadada.” – Marcel Duchamp.

Items of note

The Daily News’ Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden say the Mets “don’t seem to be inclined to get involved with the big free agents such as Matt Holliday” and so should be in on trade talks. They also say the Tigers will cut payroll, but “it’s highly unlikely that any team would take on the mammoth contract of Miguel Cabrera.”

Wait a minute, hold the phone. Would the Tigers really be looking to dump Cabrera’s salary? It’s huge, mind you — he’s owed $126 million over the next six seasons — but he’s not even 27 yet and he’s completely awesome. So awesome, in fact, that Fangraphs valued him at $24.3 million in 2009, more money than he’ll make in any single year in his current contract. Obviously I have no idea what he’d cost in a trade package, I’m just saying. Some team with money should be willing to take him on.

LeBron James will wear No. 6 next season to honor Michael Jordan. Good news for Toney Douglas.

Rex Ryan is riling up Jets fans again. I’d kind of rather he rile up Jets.