Depth perception

Twitterer @SNESMaster asked me this morning if the Mets seem to have more depth than in previous years. I was actually thinking about this last night.

I put together this chart, comparing the Mets’ Plan As, Bs and Cs at the non-pitching positions Opening Day 2011 to those from 2010. To the previous administration’s credit (and as noted in the chart), the 2010 Mets started with three would-be regulars on the disabled list. Still — and maybe I’m just being optimistic here — it looks like a pretty stark contract.

Ronny Paulino gets an asterisk because he’ll be suspended to start the year. I put Carlos Beltran down for “disabled” to start the season not because I’m certain that will be the case, but just to hedge my optimism. Obviously if Beltran is disabled it opens up another big-league roster spot to start the season, so you could probably slide Nick Evans in for Willie Harris in left and/or right field.

If it weren’t for the presence of David Wright in last year’s lineup, I might actually take this year’s Buffalo lineup over the fellows trotted out at Citi Field last April.

Sorry if it looks a bit funky. Tables screw with this WordPress theme.

First 2011:

Position Starter Backup Triple-A
C Josh Thole Ronny Paulino* Mike Nickeas
1B Ike Davis Daniel Murphy Nick Evans?
2B Brad Emaus Daniel Murphy Justin Turner
3B David Wright Daniel Murphy Zach Lutz
SS Jose Reyes Chin-Lung Hu Ruben Tejada
LF Jason Bay Willie Harris Lucas Duda
CF Angel Pagan Willie Harris Jason Pridie
RF Scott Hairston Willie Harris Fernando Martinez
Disabled Carlos Beltran

And now 2010:

Position Starter Backup Triple-A
C Rod Barajas Henry Blanco Josh Thole
1B Mike Jacobs Frank Catalanotto Ike Davis
2B Luis Castillo Ruben Tejada Russ Adams
3B David Wright Fernando Tatis Mike Cervenak
SS Alex Cora Ruben Tejada Luis Hernandez
LF Jason Bay Angel Pagan Chris Carter
CF Gary Matthews Jr. Angel Pagan Jesus Feliciano
RF Jeff Francoeur Angel Pagan Fernando Martinez
Disabled Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Daniel Murphy

Further adjusted bullpen odds

As promised. A reminder: I recognize that we’re talking about the last two spots in the bullpen here and it’s all inevitably going to change once the season gets started and injuries begin to pile up. But find me something more compelling to talk about and we’ll cover that instead. Would you prefer constant updates on Oliver Perez?

Pedro Beato (1:2): Beato becomes a better-than-even-money favorite to land a job based on his age, upside and Rule 5 status. I’m not calling him a lock yet, but it doesn’t seem like any of the other guys has shown enough to wrest a spot from the 24-year-old.

Manny Acosta (1:1): Despite a rough outing yesterday, Acosta moves up the list. As I said earlier, he has been more effective and more often healthy as a Major Leaguer than Boyer has. He could make it through waivers even if he doesn’t crack the roster.

Blaine Boyer (2:1): Boyer, based on Adam Rubin’s report earlier, is the big gainer here. His eight Spring Training innings probably help his chances more than they should; he has a career WHIP of 1.438, not great for a reliever.

Jason Isringhausen (3:1): Isringhausen, a favorite to win a job the first time I did this, slides further down the list. Though he reportedly felt great the first time throwing after hearing a pop in his elbow and being shut down for five days, he heard a pop in his elbow and had to be shut down for five days. Since carrying Isringhausen would mean the team could lose Acosta, Boyer and Pat Misch as fallback options, it seems like a riskier choice by the day. I’m still rooting for Izzy regardless. And this story from the Bergen Record is sort of heartbreaking.

Pat Misch (7:1): Misch remains versatile, accurate, left-handed and subject to waivers, all factors working in his favor. Sure doesn’t sound like he’ll make the club though. I am a Pat Misch fan, so here’s hoping he clears waivers — certainly a possibility — and joins Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Josh Stinson and Boof Bonser in a surprisingly deep Buffalo rotation.

Mike O’Connor (11:1): O’Connor still throws left-handed, but since he has options, it’s hard to figure how he could trump fellow lefty Misch for a roster spot. He will likely vie with Taylor Tankersley for opportunities out of the Buffalo bullpen.

The field (23:1): Keep fighting, Les Walrond.

Blaine Boyer has an out; will he take it?

Adam Rubin uncovers the news that Blaine Boyer has an out clause in his contract, meaning he could leave the Mets rather than be assigned to Triple-A.

Needless to say, that changes the picture with the adjusted bullpen odds posted here earlier this week. Boyer, a hard-throwing right-hander like Manny Acosta and Pedro Beato, has been the best in Grapefruit League play of the men vying for the last spot in the bullpen. It’s a tiny eight-inning sample and Spring Training stats are silly, but if the team deems all else equal, his 1.13 ERA could earn him a spot over Acosta or 38-year-old Jason Isringhausen.

But is all else equal? Since Beato is a 24-year-old Rule 5 guy with impressive stuff and the most upside of the four, Rubin assumes he has a leg up for one of the spots. That makes sense; of the candidates, he is the most likely to contribute to the Mets’ future, and it seems silly to risk losing that for a guy that might not be around come July.

Boyer and Acosta are comparable, serviceable arms for the back end of a bullpen. They are roughly the same age. Acosta has been more effective as a Major League reliever, with a 123 career ERA+ to Boyer’s 93. The Panamanian strikes out more batters, but he walks more too. Boyer has yielded a higher groundball rate across his career, and — though tons of sample size caveats exist — it might be worth noting that Acosta has yielded progressively fewer grounders in every season since his rookie campaign.

According to the Baseball Injury Tool, Acosta has been hurt only once in his career — a hamstring strain that required a DL stint in 2008 –. Boyer endured a shoulder surgery in 2006 and has suffered a host of minor back and trunk injuries. Boyer has more Major League service time and thus more time to accrue injuries. Though the tool tracks Minor League injuries, I am not sure to what extent.

Still, based on that information, I’d probably opt for Acosta over Boyer, though it’s kind of a toss-up. And that’s only based on information readily accessible on the Internet. The team has more than I do, no doubt, including a crucial piece: Knowledge of if Boyer would take the opt-out in his contract should he fail to make the team.

Plenty of clubs need bullpen help at this and every juncture; would Boyer find a spot on a Major League team if he left Mets camp on March 31? Hard to say. Would a Triple-A job with another organization be more desirable? I tend to doubt it — the Mets have plenty of uncertainty in the bullpen, and perhaps Boyer would accept an assignment to Buffalo knowing he will likely be the first-call replacement when one of the guys that breaks camp with the big club goes down.

I haven’t spoken to the man (or his agent) and I’m not certain it’s the type of thing a player would be eager to talk to reporters about anyhow. Maybe Boyer is hellbent on starting the season in the Major Leagues and certain some team would swoop him up as soon as he becomes available.

Plus there’s the whole Isringhausen thing to consider. Isringhausen, since he has proven he can be a great Major League reliever, offers the team the most short-term upside. Given Isringhausen’s age and injury history, though, it’s hard to expect him to be able to contribute to the club even for a full season.

In any case, the news about Boyer’s option doesn’t seem to bode well for Pat Misch or Mike O’Connor, especially the latter. Because this is how I entertain myself, I will post even further adjusted bullpen odds sometime later today, after I get a chance to do the math.

The Doctor is in

Patrick Flood reaches No. 2 on his Top 50 Mets countdown: Dwight Gooden. I loved watching Doc pitch, even if I never saw him at his very best. I’ll add the fun fact that in 1983, as an 18 year old, Gooden threw 191 innings in A-ball, across which he walked 112 batters and struck out 300. That’s not the type of thing they let 18-year-old pitchers do anymore. Obviously it’s impossible to know now if stricter pitch counts and innings limits would have kept Doc dominant for longer, or if addiction and the Mets’ big plans would have derailed his career regardless.