Further adjusted bullpen odds

As promised. A reminder: I recognize that we’re talking about the last two spots in the bullpen here and it’s all inevitably going to change once the season gets started and injuries begin to pile up. But find me something more compelling to talk about and we’ll cover that instead. Would you prefer constant updates on Oliver Perez?

Pedro Beato (1:2): Beato becomes a better-than-even-money favorite to land a job based on his age, upside and Rule 5 status. I’m not calling him a lock yet, but it doesn’t seem like any of the other guys has shown enough to wrest a spot from the 24-year-old.

Manny Acosta (1:1): Despite a rough outing yesterday, Acosta moves up the list. As I said earlier, he has been more effective and more often healthy as a Major Leaguer than Boyer has. He could make it through waivers even if he doesn’t crack the roster.

Blaine Boyer (2:1): Boyer, based on Adam Rubin’s report earlier, is the big gainer here. His eight Spring Training innings probably help his chances more than they should; he has a career WHIP of 1.438, not great for a reliever.

Jason Isringhausen (3:1): Isringhausen, a favorite to win a job the first time I did this, slides further down the list. Though he reportedly felt great the first time throwing after hearing a pop in his elbow and being shut down for five days, he heard a pop in his elbow and had to be shut down for five days. Since carrying Isringhausen would mean the team could lose Acosta, Boyer and Pat Misch as fallback options, it seems like a riskier choice by the day. I’m still rooting for Izzy regardless. And this story from the Bergen Record is sort of heartbreaking.

Pat Misch (7:1): Misch remains versatile, accurate, left-handed and subject to waivers, all factors working in his favor. Sure doesn’t sound like he’ll make the club though. I am a Pat Misch fan, so here’s hoping he clears waivers — certainly a possibility — and joins Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Josh Stinson and Boof Bonser in a surprisingly deep Buffalo rotation.

Mike O’Connor (11:1): O’Connor still throws left-handed, but since he has options, it’s hard to figure how he could trump fellow lefty Misch for a roster spot. He will likely vie with Taylor Tankersley for opportunities out of the Buffalo bullpen.

The field (23:1): Keep fighting, Les Walrond.

Blaine Boyer has an out; will he take it?

Adam Rubin uncovers the news that Blaine Boyer has an out clause in his contract, meaning he could leave the Mets rather than be assigned to Triple-A.

Needless to say, that changes the picture with the adjusted bullpen odds posted here earlier this week. Boyer, a hard-throwing right-hander like Manny Acosta and Pedro Beato, has been the best in Grapefruit League play of the men vying for the last spot in the bullpen. It’s a tiny eight-inning sample and Spring Training stats are silly, but if the team deems all else equal, his 1.13 ERA could earn him a spot over Acosta or 38-year-old Jason Isringhausen.

But is all else equal? Since Beato is a 24-year-old Rule 5 guy with impressive stuff and the most upside of the four, Rubin assumes he has a leg up for one of the spots. That makes sense; of the candidates, he is the most likely to contribute to the Mets’ future, and it seems silly to risk losing that for a guy that might not be around come July.

Boyer and Acosta are comparable, serviceable arms for the back end of a bullpen. They are roughly the same age. Acosta has been more effective as a Major League reliever, with a 123 career ERA+ to Boyer’s 93. The Panamanian strikes out more batters, but he walks more too. Boyer has yielded a higher groundball rate across his career, and — though tons of sample size caveats exist — it might be worth noting that Acosta has yielded progressively fewer grounders in every season since his rookie campaign.

According to the Baseball Injury Tool, Acosta has been hurt only once in his career — a hamstring strain that required a DL stint in 2008 –. Boyer endured a shoulder surgery in 2006 and has suffered a host of minor back and trunk injuries. Boyer has more Major League service time and thus more time to accrue injuries. Though the tool tracks Minor League injuries, I am not sure to what extent.

Still, based on that information, I’d probably opt for Acosta over Boyer, though it’s kind of a toss-up. And that’s only based on information readily accessible on the Internet. The team has more than I do, no doubt, including a crucial piece: Knowledge of if Boyer would take the opt-out in his contract should he fail to make the team.

Plenty of clubs need bullpen help at this and every juncture; would Boyer find a spot on a Major League team if he left Mets camp on March 31? Hard to say. Would a Triple-A job with another organization be more desirable? I tend to doubt it — the Mets have plenty of uncertainty in the bullpen, and perhaps Boyer would accept an assignment to Buffalo knowing he will likely be the first-call replacement when one of the guys that breaks camp with the big club goes down.

I haven’t spoken to the man (or his agent) and I’m not certain it’s the type of thing a player would be eager to talk to reporters about anyhow. Maybe Boyer is hellbent on starting the season in the Major Leagues and certain some team would swoop him up as soon as he becomes available.

Plus there’s the whole Isringhausen thing to consider. Isringhausen, since he has proven he can be a great Major League reliever, offers the team the most short-term upside. Given Isringhausen’s age and injury history, though, it’s hard to expect him to be able to contribute to the club even for a full season.

In any case, the news about Boyer’s option doesn’t seem to bode well for Pat Misch or Mike O’Connor, especially the latter. Because this is how I entertain myself, I will post even further adjusted bullpen odds sometime later today, after I get a chance to do the math.

The Doctor is in

Patrick Flood reaches No. 2 on his Top 50 Mets countdown: Dwight Gooden. I loved watching Doc pitch, even if I never saw him at his very best. I’ll add the fun fact that in 1983, as an 18 year old, Gooden threw 191 innings in A-ball, across which he walked 112 batters and struck out 300. That’s not the type of thing they let 18-year-old pitchers do anymore. Obviously it’s impossible to know now if stricter pitch counts and innings limits would have kept Doc dominant for longer, or if addiction and the Mets’ big plans would have derailed his career regardless.

Exit Justin Turner

The Mets optioned Justin Turner to Triple-A today, thus ending — for now — the Justin Turner Lobby.

Paul DePodesta said something interesting in his Baseball Prospectus chat yesterday:

Our Opening Day roster is just that – a roster for Opening Day only. We can change it the next day and the day after and the day after. Though there’s a certain cache to the Opening Day roster, it’s really just one day in a long season. All that means is that the 2B job will probably continue to be a competition until somebody makes it their own, and I suspect somebody will.

Though I am still not convinced Brad Emaus is a better fit for the position than Turner, sending Turner down buys the Mets some time to determine if Emaus can be a long-term contributor to the team. It was the only way to keep both Emaus and Turner in the organization, so it is probably the most logical move.

If at some point it becomes clear that Emaus cannot handle the position — either offensively or defensively — the Mets can ship him back to the Blue Jays or find a spot for him on the bench and recall Turner. Going with Turner out of the gate would mean dispatching Emaus to Canada now.

If Emaus is going to start the bulk of games at second base, as most suspect, Daniel Murphy becomes the team’s primary left-handed bat off the bench. And that brings up a point I made to Matt Cerrone yesterday: Willie Harris becomes somewhat redundant on the roster.

Terry Collins has raved about Harris’ versatility, but Collins raves about practically everyone. It’s hard to envision a situation calling for a left-handed bat in which the team would choose Harris over Murphy (bunting?), and Scott Hairston gives the Mets a suitable fourth outfielder with plenty of experience (more than Harris) in center field. Harris can back up the infield positions too, but presumably the first call for all replacement-infielder needs will go to Chin-Lung Hu.

Most of the media has acted all spring as if Harris is a lock for the roster. Harris has an opt-out in his contract, so though he was signed to a Minor League deal he cannot be forced to accept an assignment to Buffalo. Internet legend Nick Evans, out of options, would have to pass through waivers to be sent to Triple-A.

If Carlos Beltran needs a week or two on the Disabled List to start the season, it buys the team some time to make a decision — the Mets could keep both Harris and Evans around, since presumably Hairston would be the stopgap in right field.

But if Beltran is ready to go by April 1, it seems to me (and I’ve said this before) like the team might be better served keeping Evans over Harris. Though Evans cannot boast quite the same defensive versatility or Major League resume as the veteran, he is seven years younger, locked up under team control for way longer and has more offensive upside.

I realize I’m once again quibbling over the 25th spot on the roster and that this season, it seems like the Mets’ front office might actually be thinking about these decisions more than I am. Perhaps they think Harris is the sparkplug that will catapult the Mets to contention, and Evans is doomed to a Hessmanian life of itinerant Triple-A mashing. But since neither is obvious, I’d rather see them go with the younger player and try to convince Harris to accept the Minor League assignment, knowing that he’ll likely get the first call when someone inevitably goes down with injury.

The thing about Izzy

Isringhausen played catch on flat ground Tuesday and pronounced himself fit after taking what he said was “4-5 days off” because of inflammation in his elbow. The Mets had indicated Monday that Isringhausen was shut down for one day, but the pitcher said he took off more time, and his elbow was helped by taking anti-inflammatory medicine.

Isringhausen said he will throw a bullpen session Wednesday, have a day off and then resume pitching every other day as he tries to make the team as a reliever. Manager Terry Collins said he hoped to get Isringhausen into a game Wednesday, but then said he would discuss the pitcher’s schedule with Warthen.

Anthony McCarron, N.Y. Daily News.

Look: I want Jason Isringhausen to make the Mets’ Opening Day roster. Isringhausen, with all the hope and hype surrounding him, played a vital role in the summer of 1995, one of my favorite years of Mets fandom. His return to the team would make for a great story, plus he has been an excellent reliever for much of his career. If he could pull it all together for one more season, he would be a very valuable cog in the Mets’ bullpen.

But the thing about Izzy, heck, the thing about most 38-year-old pitchers — not just the ones with Izzy’s lengthy medical history who haven’t thrown more than eight Major League innings during the Obama administration —  is there’s a pretty good chance he falls victim to injury at any time. This four-to-five day shutdown is not a big deal in Spring Training because Grapefruit League games are meaningless. But how often will Isringhausen need to be shut down for four to five days during the regular season?

Who knows? He says he feels good, apparently. We will know more after he throws a bullpen session today.

If Isringhausen makes the Major League roster, it will come at the expense of one of Pedro Beato, Manny Acosta and Pat Misch. Beato is a Rule 5 pick who would have to be returned to the Orioles, Acosta and Misch are out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to Triple-A. Though none of those relievers has anything like Izzy’s resume, they’re all more likely than Isringhausen to stay healthy for a full season, or, for that matter, a full month.

The Mets’ front office is, presumably, working with more information than I am. They should have a better sense of the severity of Isringhausen’s elbow inflammation, the potential of Beato, Acosta and Misch to help the club over a full season, and the chances that Acosta and Misch would clear waivers.

I guess the question is: Is Isringhausen, at 38 and basically four seasons removed from being an effective Major League reliever, going to hold up long enough and be so much better than Acosta (or pick any of the three) that it’s worth losing Acosta?

Maybe. Acosta and Misch are known quantities, and neither is likely to go all Cliff Lee on the National League in 2011. But they’re both decent enough to contribute to a big-league bullpen, and if Isringhausen’s not healthy he won’t be.

Just different

DePodesta’s entire chat with Baseball Prospectus is worth reading, but this quote caught my eye. I’ve noted numerous times that I struggle with xFIP. I have no trouble believing that most pitchers’ home runs per flyball rates will normalize over time, but I find it hard to assume that the same will be the case for all pitchers. In other words, I wonder if there are some guys, like Johan Santana over the past couple of seasons, that figure out a way to induce consistently weak fly-ball contact. Seems like DePodesta implies here that Young has.

Doug Sisk: Shea Stadium’s most wanted

Oddly, the same man once prohibited from pitching at Shea now understands. A couple of years ago, while watching a Seattle Mariners game on TV, Sisk found himself irked by the performance of J.J. Putz, at the time a reliever with the club. Putz was scuffling to get through the inning, and Sisk thought his body language conveyed surrender.

“Then the weirdest thing happened,” he says. “I was all alone, but I started booing at my television. That’s when I realized what those fans felt with me.

Jeff Pearlman, Wall Street Journal.

Good read about former Mets reliever Doug Sisk, perhaps the most hated man in Mets history.

Sisk actually posted a 117 ERA+ in his five year career with the Mets, but he allowed a ton of baserunners, many on free passes. He also holds the distinction — and I suppose this isn’t surprising — of being the first player I ever booed.

I’m pretty sure it was during introductions for Opening Day of 1987, the first game I ever attended. I was with my brother, uncle and grandfather, and when Sisk’s name was called everyone started booing. I don’t remember the exact details of the conversation, but I asked why we were booing, and either my brother or uncle said something along the lines of, “Because it’s f@#$ing Sisk!”

And so began a life of booing crappy Mets relievers.