The only thing we have to Fiers

The very first thing that statistical analysis shows us is there is a whole lot of randomness involved in every single baseball outcome. Predictions based on statistics are merely suggesting the most likely outcome. Not even Colin Wyers of Baseball Prospectus is so soulless as to not appreciate when something unlikely and random occurs during baseball. If anything, a basic understanding of statistical likelihood, enhances one’s enjoyment of short hops, fielding flubs and unexpected performances.

And this is why Mike Fiers is the most enjoyable story in baseball right now.

Dustin Parkes, Getting Blanked.

Good read from Parkes on Fiers, the Brewers’ 27-year-old rookie sensation. I especially like the excerpted part because it reiterates something I’ve argued many times before: Understanding baseball’s probabilities fosters a greater appreciation for both the unlikeliest and likeliest outcomes. It’s beautiful when Jeff Francoeur plays like a superstar for a few months and then it’s beautiful when he regresses to his career norms. Baseball is the best.

As for Fiers: Certainly no one could have predicted this level of success in his first go around the big leagues, but his Minor League stats were pretty good. He was old for every level, but his career Minor League strikeout-to-walk ratio is over 4 and he seemed to suppress hits pretty effectively. Maybe his stuff doesn’t look like a typical Major Leaguer’s, but then maybe there’s some selection bias there.

From the Wikipedia: Pud Galvin

I’ll never not be entertained by old-timey baseball stuff.

From the Wikipedia: Pud Galvin

James Francis Galvin was born on Christmas day of 1856 in St. Louis, Missouri. He grew up in an Irish neighborhood called Kerry Patch and trained as a steamfitter, but by the age of 18 he was pitching for the St. Louis Brown Stockings in the National Association, playing something similar to modern baseball but featuring almost no offense. No one on the 1875 Brown Stockings sported an OPS over .550 besides Lip Pike, who was utterly awesome for his time.

According to this Wikipedia-endorsed bio (from which I’m getting most of this information), Galvin was “uneducated and unrefined,” and as a teenager he exclusively wore flannel shirts and ate with his hands. That sounds a lot like me as a teenager, but I thought I was pretty refined.

Galvin played independent ball in 1876, then played one year for Buffalo of the International Association in 1877, then surfaced in the Majors for good as a 22-year-old when the Buffalo Bisons joined the National League in 1879. Galvin purportedly earned the nickname “Pud” because he made hitters look like pudding. Known as a gentleman, he was also called “Gentle Jeems.” And for his durability (detailed in the next paragraph), the 5-8, 190-pound Galvin was called “The Little Steam Engine.”

From 1879-1884, Galvin averaged 504 innings a season, starting nearly 70 percent of Buffalo’s games in that stretch and throwing 317 complete games, culminating in back-to-back years of more than 600 innings and 70 complete games in 1883 and 1884. He was pretty good, too, notching a 114 ERA+ and a 4.62 strikeout to walk ratio over his first six seasons as a full-time Major Leaguer. At one point he started 22 straight games and completed all of them. Galvin’s 1884 campaign, in which he went 46-29 with a 1.99 ERA over 636 1/3 innings, produced the highest single-season pitcher WAR in baseball history, though Galvin was so atrocious with the bat that his offense cost his team about 1.9 wins.

In Buffalo, Galvin became lifelong friends with fellow mustache man and future president Grover Cleveland.

A lot of this isn’t from the Wikipedia, by the way. Feel free to add it.

Another thing that’s not on the Wikipedia is that Galvin and most of his teammates probably sucked, at least by contemporary standards. The game was obviously massively different then — there was no pitcher’s mound yet, for one thing, plus the distance from the mound to home plate changed multiple times during Galvin’s career, Galvin never saw the need for a curveball, and he threw underhand. But take a look at the work Patrick Flood put together here. If fielding percentage is a decent indicator of the level of play, the way it increased over 100 points from 1871 to 1901 suggests the game was rapidly (and not surprisingly) developing and improving, presumably due to increased exposure and a broader talent pool, plus more time to figure out what the hell to do on a baseball field.

Which brings me to an important question, and something I think about pretty frequently: At what level could Galvin and his teammates from 1884 reasonably compete today if they could time-travel here and have modern equipment (but not modern training, since that throws everything off)? The league’s .899 fielding percentage, if we’re using that method, suggests the level wasn’t any better than a typical high school league today. Obviously the fielding stats are subject to the whims of subjective scoring and shoddy groundskeeping, but then so is high-school ball.

In other words, if I crewed up with some bros to form a competent but by no means good amateur team of adults in 2012, how far back in time would we have to travel to be able to compete with Major Leaguers? I bet it’s sometime around the 1880s, or maybe a little later if my friend Bill comes. Bill can throw really hard.

Back to Galvin: He was traded to the Pittsburgh Alleghenys in 1885 and ate innings for them until 1889. That season, incidentally, Galvin openly used the Brown-Séquard elixir, a supposed performance-enhancer made by draining monkey testicles. At the time, the Washington Post reported:

If there still be doubting Thomases who concede no virtue of the elixir, they are respectfully referred to Galvin’s record in yesterday’s Boston-Pittsburgh game. It is the best proof yet furnished of the value of the discovery.

In 1890, Galvin left the National League for the uncreatively but somewhat deliciously named Pittsburgh Burghers. The Burghers played in the newly formed Players’ League, which was presumably named after the football pool Lenny Dykstra keeps asking you to join. The Players’ League was formed by the Brotherhood of Professional Base-Ball Players over a spat with the National League owners, but it folded after one season and ultimately hurt the players’ standing, as it led to the demise of the American Association and more leverage for National League owners.

Galvin returned to the NL’s Pittsburgh franchise in 1891, the first year in which it was called the Pirates. He was traded to the Browns midway through the 1892 , but suffered a leg injury in a collision with Cap Anson and retired later that year. He attempted to hang on as an umpire in 1893, but did not take criticism well.

Galvin died broke and fat in Pittsburgh in 1902 after several failed business ventures. To date and for the foreseeable future, he ranks second in innings pitched and complete games in Major League history. He was the first pitcher to win 300 games, the first to throw a no-hitter on the road, and presumably the first to advocate monkey testosterone.

Friday Q&A, pt 2: The randos

https://twitter.com/James_Tierney/status/228884044123881472

Well, Shea Stadium. But if you’re asking about the parks I’m not biased toward, it’s a great question. By my count, I’ve been to 30 Major League parks, and seen home games in every big-league city but San Diego, Oakland, Anaheim, Toronto and Tampa Bay. I haven’t seen the new or newish parks in St. Louis, Miami and Minnesota yet. Obviously I’m dealing with pretty small samples here. In many cases, I’ve only been to one or two games at the park, so my perceptions could easily be biased by good weather, good crowds or good games.

Anyhow, I think it’s Camden Yards. And I just asked my friend Scott, who has been to games in every city but Boston, and he agrees. Maybe it has something to do with being the first of the new-old ballparks, or maybe it was just so particularly well done that it prompted the trend.

It’s worth noting that I’m not nearly as hard on most ballparks as some fans. As far as I’m concerned, if they’re playing baseball there and I can see it, it’s a beautiful place. The baseball itself biases my opinions of the buildings in which it is played. But I just ranked the ones I’ve been to (rather haphazardly) and it came out like this:

Camden Yards
Coors Field
Dodger Stadium
PNC Park
Progressive Field
AT&T Park
Kauffman Stadium
Safeco Field
Nationals Park
Wrigley Field
Comerica Park
Ballpark at Arlington
Great American Ballpark
Yankee Stadium III
Fenway
US Cellular
Turner Field
Chase Field
Yankee Stadium II
Minute Maid Park
Miller Park
Citizens Bank Park
Busch Stadium II
Metrodome
Sun Life Stadium
RFK Stadium
Stade Olympique
Veterans Stadium

https://twitter.com/DShaw31/status/228884325570080768

Ah yes, a bands-with-bassists-as-singers question. I like both but I’m not way into either, but I’ll pick Cream because Jack Bruce is sweet and I find most of Sting’s solo work infuriating.

https://twitter.com/robValcich/status/228895097671000064

The site is burgundy because our man Adam Rotter had to color in the logo above and he said, “hey, Ted, what color do you want the logo to be?” And I said, “I don’t know, how about burgundy?” This site featured handsome autumnal tones for a while a couple years ago, and I thought it was about time to bring some of them back. I’ll probably mix up the colors on this new theme periodically.

Speaking of: The new theme is something of a work in progress, though I think it’s getting there. We often use TedQuarters as a guinea pig for changes on our blog network. People generally dislike changes to the way sites look, but the new setup should allow me (and, ultimately, many of our other bloggers) to do some cool stuff really easily that makes the sites more enjoyable. I haven’t quite figured it all out yet, though. Also, if you’ve sent me an email through the contact form in the last couple of days, I haven’t seen it. We’re working on that, too.

I also miss the Eddy Curry wheel, but all things must pass. Luckily it’s still here with me in the office, behind the dartboard on my desk, so I can unfold it and look at it if I ever get overwhelmed by nostalgia for the old site design.

https://twitter.com/Devon2012/status/228884027938062336

Like “jif,” like the peanut butter.

Everything’s coming up Hamels!

 

If you somehow missed it, Cole Hamels reportedly signed a six-year, $144 million contract extension with the Phillies yesterday. This is good.

As I’ve mentioned a few times here, I kind of love Cole Hamels. For one thing, he’s an excellent pitcher — perhaps actually underrated. When you account for his home park, Hamels has been just about as good across his career as Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez, but I feel like his dominance has been buried a little under the Phillies’ frequent acquisitions of more veteran pitchers. Hamels should be considered in the upper echelon of pitchers under 30, up there with the likes of Verlander, Hernandez, Matt Cain and Zack Greinke.

For another, look at him. He’s hilariously silly. And though I revel in collecting and archiving embarrassing photos of the man, the longer I do it, the more I suspect he just doesn’t give a crap what any of us think about his fashion choices and modeling career. At this point, given the popularity of the archive and the frequency with which it has been linked in Philly-based media, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s seen it himself. I’ve been meaning to try to set up an interview to see if he’s a good sport about it.

But though I harbored quiet fantasies of Hamels becoming a Met, it’s probably best he’ll remain a Phillie. Expensive, long-term contracts for starting pitchers rarely work out — though Hamels has youth on his side. Plus now he contributes to the Phillies’ pending payroll jam, for whatever that’s worth.

More than anything, it’s fun for the Mets to have an enemy who works to bring back old-school baseball while wearing capri pants and listening to Lifehouse. I would have enjoyed some short-term schadenfreude if he were traded, knowing that the Phillies were selling parts at the deadline, but I imagine in the long-run I’ll have more fun with a Twi-hard committed to the Mets’ biggest rival.

Wait, what?

I remember one time when we were with the Phillies [in 1991], this was before a game, Lenny [Dykstra] had blood coming out of both of his ears. He was panicked. He said, “Dude, what’s happening to me?” Somehow Lenny played that night, but with all the stuff he put in his body, you knew it wasn’t going to end well.

Wally Backman.

Seriously, does anyone know what it is you could put in your body to make it bleed from both ears? I want to know so I can continue staying far, far away from that stuff.

Click through and read Bob Klapisch’s article detailing Dykstra’s long, slow, public fall from grace. And for more, don’t miss Emma Span’s take on Dykstra for the Hall of Nearly Great.