Annual reminder that Spring Training stats mean very little

I’ve seen some Mets fans overreacting on Twitter — hard as that may be to believe — to Spring Training results the last few days, so I wanted to lay down the annual reminder that Grapefruit League stats mean almost nothing. Guys are working on things, guys are ironing out kinks, and guys are operating in small enough samples that they might luck into 50-some at-bats against mostly Minor League competition.

I went back through MLB.com’s Spring Training archive and cherry-picked some examples of Spring Training stats that look silly now. These are just for the Mets:

– In 2006, 36-year-old Jose Valentin posted a .143/.273/.250 line that looked a hell of a lot like the one from his woeful 2005 campaign. He wound up the Mets’ starting second baseman that year and hit .271/.330/.490.

– The next year, 37-year-old Valentin hit .321/.410/.642 in the Grapefruit League, then .241/.302/.373. David Newhan and Scott Schoeneweis both had great springs.

– In 2008, Mike Pelfrey allowed 19 earned runs in 21 Grapefruit League innings. He went on to have arguably the best season of his Major League career. Jorge Sosa, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell and Scott Schoeneweis combined to throw 46 2/3 innings with a 0.76 ERA, then later became members of the 2008 Mets’ bullpen (though only briefly for Parnell).

Do I really need to keep going with this? I’m already bored with it and I strongly suspect if you’re reading this site you know better than to put much stock in Spring Training stats.

I don’t want to say they mean nothing at all, since guys are vying to make the club and one of the ways the coaches assess them is by comparing their performance in Grapefruit League games. But Mike Pelfrey’s on the team. If you want to worry about his ERA, worry about his career rate, not the one he’s got in six Spring Training innings.

 

Mets over-under

Programming note: I’m making the 130-mile trip to Lakeland to see the Mets face the Tigers at Joker Marchant Stadium in Tigertown today, so things will be quiet here for the next couple of hours. Anyone know anyplace good to eat dinner between Lakeland and Port St. Lucie?

Context: Mike Pelfrey has allowed 9.9 hits per 9 innings across his career. In his two best seasons — 2008 and 2010 — he has allowed 9.4 hits per 9. In his two worst — 2009 and 2011 — he has allowed 10.4 and 10.2, respectively.

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Johan Santana still happening

Johan Santana played catch with Mike Nickeas this morning on Field 2 at the Mets’ complex in Port St. Lucie, then moved over to the bullpen outside the Mets’ clubhouse, made some throws from the back of the mound, then took his rightful place atop it for some proper pitching practice.

About halfway through the session, pitching coach Dan Warthen stepped into the batter’s box to simulate a hitter. From my perspective, about 10 feet to Santana’s left and maybe five feet behind him, I could see the signs Nickeas threw down and watch as Santana manipulated the ball in his glove, wound up and fired.

After one well-placed changeup at Warthen’s knees, Santana shouted, “What’re you going to do with that?”

Later, after the Mets’ one-time ace put a slider on the inside corner to Warthen in the lefty hitter’s box, the pitching coach laughed. “Can you start today?” He called out.

Near the end of the session, Santana announced, “two more hitters.”

“Do you want a lefty first, or a righty?” a coach asked.

Santana turned, shrugged and smirked. “Doesn’t matter.”

I’m just going to post the video now because it’s hard to keep typing with my fingers crossed:

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Mets over-under

For what it’s worth: Upon request, I’ve added all of these to the right column of this site for future reference.

Context: The Mets used nine starting pitchers in 2011. They used 12 in 2010, 11 in 2009, 11 in 2008 and 12 in 2007. They have Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee slated to start the rotation, with Miguel Batista and Chris Schwinden likely behind them and Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey coming up the pike.

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I guess he’s an XBox and I’m more Atari

“[Reyes] said, ‘I really want to play in Miami as long as you pay me $1 more than anyone else. … I really want to make the most money I can,'” team president David Samson told Miami businessmen during a speech Tuesday, according to Miami Today.

According to the report, Samson also bragged about securing taxpayer dollars to get a new Marlins stadium built.

“I don’t have to hold back now that the stadium is built — not that I ever have,” Samson reportedly said. “We’re not the smartest people in Miami. If you’re in this room, you’re instantly in the top 1 percent.”

Adam Rubin, ESPN.com.

Oof, everything about this. And I know it’s nothing surprising. It’s just the bluntness.

Sputnik, Bernoulli’s Principle come up in SNY.tv interview for first time ever

Our video guys had to cut this down some for length, but later in the interview Jay Hook told me about his successful foray into the engineering business — including work for contractors that worked on the Apollo program — which led to a job as a professor at Northwestern. Doesn’t seem like a typical post-baseball career. Space!

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BEES!?

The Diamondbacks’ grounds crew used a combination of cotton candy and lemonade to help disperse a swarm of bees that delayed the San Francisco Giants split squad’s 11-1 win over Arizona for 41 minutes in the second inning Sunday.

With runners on second and third and one out in the second inning, a dark cloud appeared in right field, sending Diamondbacks center fielder Chris Young sprinting toward left….

The grounds crew came up with a sweet solution.

They smeared a combination of concession-stand lemonade and cotton candy on two utility carts and lured many of the bees away from fans and players. Some of the bees, however, found a perch on a television camera.

Associated Press.

Hey, talk about a sticky situation! AMIRITE?

Alternate headline/reference: “They’re everywhere, and they’re sting-crazy!”

Angel Pagan makes an appearance in the story, FWIW. He also did not want to get attacked by bees.

Hat tip to HardballTalk.

Valley Fever: A timeline

Here’s a section of a MetsBlog post from Feb. 23, 2012:

9:19 am:Ike Davis is back in Mets camp, according to SNY’s Matt Dunn.

The team told Dunn that Ike’s physical showed an infection in his lung, but after being checked out in New York, he’s been cleared to resume workouts.

He feels no effects of it and he’s been told it will go away, though he will continue to be monitored.

Here’s a section of a Mets.com report from March 3, 2012:

Davis is not the picture of health. He has, in fact, contracted Valley or Desert Fever, a malady that can interfere with a season and even end a career….

Davis, who lives in Arizona in the offseason, says he has experienced no symptoms. “I feel normal. I don’t feel anything,” he said.

Here’s the Mets’ statement on Davis’ condition, also from March 3, 2012:

Ike Davis underwent a routine physical exam after his arrival in PSL.  The exam included an abnormal chest X-ray.  Following additional tests here and in NYC, pulmonary and infectious disease specialists have concluded that Ike likely has Valley Fever, which is expected to resolve itself over time.  Ike is not contagious, is not taking any medication for his condition and does not currently exhibit any of the outward symptoms associated with Valley Fever.  However, Ike has been instructed to avoid extreme fatigue.  No additional tests or examinations are pending, but Ike will have a follow up exam when the team returns to NYC in early April.

Here’s some sections of the National Institute of Health’s page for Valley Fever:

Most people with Valley fever never have symptoms….

The disease almost always goes away without treatment.

So we’ve got: In February, a test in Port St. Lucie shows something on Davis’ lung that requires him to fly back to New York for more tests. The tests reveal an infection, but Davis has no symptoms and is cleared to resume playing, though he will be monitored.

In March, it comes out that the name of the infection is Valley Fever, Davis still has no symptoms and is still playing and still being monitored. Both the NIH and Mayo Clinic‘s websites confirm that most people with Valley Fever never show symptoms. The Internet freaks the f@#$ out.

I’m leaving out the facts that seem to be terrifying most Mets fans — that in some cases Valley Fever can be serious, and that Conor Jackson’s career was derailed by the same disease in 2009, though Jackson’s case wasn’t diagnosed until after he already had symptoms and it led to pneumonia. That is presumably why the Mets are monitoring Davis’ condition.

It’s not good business to defend the Mets’ medical staff these days, but it’s hard to see what the major issue is here. We knew Davis had a lung infection, that he had no symptoms, that he was being monitored and that he was cleared to play. Today we learned that the asymptomatic lung infection for which he is being monitored is called Valley Fever. Hard to see how it merits the type of woe-is-me LOLMets stuff spilling out in all corners.

Davis went through his scheduled Spring Training routine today: stretching, then infield, then batting practice, then four innings of the Mets’ intrasquad game. About five hours of baseball activity in the Florida heat, plus whatever cage work and weightlifting he might have done before and after. Then he talked to me about Daniel Murphy’s defense and sandwiches for a few minutes. He seemed tired, but no more than I was and not at all sick.

Here’s hoping he stays healthy. It sure seems like the panic is premature.

Ike Davis on sandwiches

I finally got a chance to speak to Ike Davis about this report today. It turns out Kevin was mistaken, though understandably: What Davis added to the grilled chicken breast was not pulled pork but pulled chicken in barbecue sauce. Ike Davis reports that it was “really good, actually.”

Asked if he considers himself a sandwich innovator, Davis hesitated then confirmed, adding that he likes to mix up his condiments to keep his sandwiches interesting.

“I’ll add chips to a sandwich, hot sauces, different kinds of mustard,” he said. “Sometimes, even if I don’t like the mustard, I’ll put it on my turkey sandwich just for something different.

“You can’t just eat the same turkey sandwich every day.”

Amen.