With Opening Day now a week away and very little else Mets-related to write about besides the very fringes of the roster, I figure it’s about time I roll out this now-annual season-preview tradition. Like last year, I’ll start with starting pitchers, work my way around the diamond, then close with the bullpen.

The starting pitchers in April: Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young and Chris Capuano.

Overview: This group lacks a pitcher that fits the traditional, brand-name “ace” mold, and it likely will until if and when Johan Santana returns (more on that to follow). But there’s nothing in the MLB rulebook that says a team can’t compete with five solid starters and no One True No.1.

Do the Mets have five solid starters?

Mike Pelfrey we know. He has been pretty consistent since taking on a full-time job in the Mets’ rotation in 2008: He’s good for about 200 innings with a lot of ground balls and not many strikeouts or walks. Guys like Pelfrey that pitch to weak contact are subject to bigger fluctuations in results — see Pelfrey’s rough 2009 — but with good infield defense behind him, Big Pelf can be expected to post numbers similar to the ones he put up last year. And that’s not bad; reliable, durable starters hardly grow on trees.

Jon Niese enters his second full season off a solid rookie performance in 2010. He faltered down the stretch, posting a 7.57 ERA over his last seven starts, but his early-season success, his history of staying mostly healthy (aside from the awful hamstring tear in 2009) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio bode well for his future. Not a lot of pitchers perform as well at age 23 as Niese did, and though pitchers don’t seem to enjoy as smooth a learning curve as hitters often do, the peak age for pitchers is still right around 27. Niese should be getting better.

R.A. Dickey’s future is more difficult to predict. I’ve pointed out in the past that Tim Wakefield enjoyed the best seasons of his career in 1992 and 1995, implying that Dickey could regress from his stellar 138 ERA+. But for a variety of reasons, Dickey is unique even among knuckleballers. Plus, as Mike Salfino pointed out, knuckleballers often enjoy success into their 40s.

Still, I’d be pleasantly surprised if Dickey can repeat his outrageous success in 2011. If he can do it for a full season, the Mets will have the ace we all want. If he can’t, he’ll still likely be a good, durable starter for the middle of the rotation. And that will still be awesome, since he’ll be a bearded, literary knuckleballer making hilarious faces.

Behind the three holdovers from last season, the Mets have newcomers Chris Young and Chris Capuano. Though there is rightfully a good deal of concern about both pitchers coming off several injury-plagued season, it’s worth noting that they both finished 2010 in their teams’ rotations and pitched well. Both were good when last healthy, and neither is terribly old.

Young hasn’t pitched a full season since 2007 and Capuano hasn’t since 2006, so it’s silly to expect both will hold up and hold down the back end of the Mets’ rotation for all of 2011. But if they can combine for even 200 innings, they’ll be 200 better innings than the Mets were likely to get from Oliver Perez.

When a pitcher succumbs to injury — as pitchers do — Dillon Gee should step in. Gee was hit hard in Triple-A in 2010, allowing 23 homers in 161 1/3 innings, but he strikes out a lot of batters and doesn’t walk many, meaning he should be able to avoid total meltdowns and keep the Mets in games when he pitches. And though I wouldn’t pencil him into the Mets rotation for at least another year, Jenrry Mejia could establish his secondary stuff and dominate hitters in Buffalo, leapfrogging Gee and/or kicking down the door to Citi Field.

As for Santana: I hate to be doom-and-gloom, but that July target date seems, well, quite optimistic. There just aren’t a lot of pitchers Santana’s age who have successfully come back from the surgery he endured. I asked injury expert Will Carroll about it on Twitter, and he mentioned Ted Lilly and Dustin McGowan, though McGowan is not all the way back yet and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since the surgery ended his 2008. At the press conference announcing that Santana would need surgery, someone mentioned — as if this was a positive thing, believe it or not — Chien-Ming Wang and Kelvim Escobar.

Santana is his own unique snowflake, and a snowflake that happens to be outrageously fit and competitive, so it’s hardly time to start singing his death knell. But shoulder injuries being what they are and pitching being what it is, we have to amount for the realistic possibility that we don’t see Santana pitch at all in 2011. And if and when he does comes back, Santana cannot be expected to revert to being Johan Santana.

Matthew Artus noted that Orel Hershiser returned from the same surgery, and indeed, Hershiser started 271 games after the procedure ended his 1990 campaign. But before the surgery, Hershiser had a career 131 ERA+. After the surgery, it fell to 101. Granted, aging has a lot to do with that mark, and Hershiser enjoyed good seasons with the Indians in 1995 and 1996, but it’s impossible to say he was ever again the same pitcher he was before the operation. And Santana is aging too.

The starting pitchers in September: Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Gee and one of Capuano and Young.

Just playing hunches there and assuming one of Capuano and Young is injured by September. Also assuming Santana is not back. I will be thrilled if I am wrong about that.

How they stack up: A reminder, the Mets’ pitchers do not technically face off with the opposing teams’ pitchers. As I said last year, I always think it’s silly when series previews compare teams position-by-position to determine which has the advantage at which spot, since it doesn’t work like that. Jose Reyes does not face Hanley Ramirez.

But that said, the Mets’ starting pitchers will not be as good as the Phillies’. They will likely not be as good as the Braves’ or Marlins’ starting staffs either. They look to be better than the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez-helmed group.

Next up: Catchers, now with 100% more Ronny Paulino.

Twitterer @SNESMaster asked me this morning if the Mets seem to have more depth than in previous years. I was actually thinking about this last night.

I put together this chart, comparing the Mets’ Plan As, Bs and Cs at the non-pitching positions Opening Day 2011 to those from 2010. To the previous administration’s credit (and as noted in the chart), the 2010 Mets started with three would-be regulars on the disabled list. Still — and maybe I’m just being optimistic here — it looks like a pretty stark contract.

Ronny Paulino gets an asterisk because he’ll be suspended to start the year. I put Carlos Beltran down for “disabled” to start the season not because I’m certain that will be the case, but just to hedge my optimism. Obviously if Beltran is disabled it opens up another big-league roster spot to start the season, so you could probably slide Nick Evans in for Willie Harris in left and/or right field.

If it weren’t for the presence of David Wright in last year’s lineup, I might actually take this year’s Buffalo lineup over the fellows trotted out at Citi Field last April.

Sorry if it looks a bit funky. Tables screw with this WordPress theme.

First 2011:

And now 2010:

As promised. A reminder: I recognize that we’re talking about the last two spots in the bullpen here and it’s all inevitably going to change once the season gets started and injuries begin to pile up. But find me something more compelling to talk about and we’ll cover that instead. Would you prefer constant updates on Oliver Perez?

Pedro Beato (1:2): Beato becomes a better-than-even-money favorite to land a job based on his age, upside and Rule 5 status. I’m not calling him a lock yet, but it doesn’t seem like any of the other guys has shown enough to wrest a spot from the 24-year-old.

Manny Acosta (1:1): Despite a rough outing yesterday, Acosta moves up the list. As I said earlier, he has been more effective and more often healthy as a Major Leaguer than Boyer has. He could make it through waivers even if he doesn’t crack the roster.

Blaine Boyer (2:1): Boyer, based on Adam Rubin’s report earlier, is the big gainer here. His eight Spring Training innings probably help his chances more than they should; he has a career WHIP of 1.438, not great for a reliever.

Jason Isringhausen (3:1): Isringhausen, a favorite to win a job the first time I did this, slides further down the list. Though he reportedly felt great the first time throwing after hearing a pop in his elbow and being shut down for five days, he heard a pop in his elbow and had to be shut down for five days. Since carrying Isringhausen would mean the team could lose Acosta, Boyer and Pat Misch as fallback options, it seems like a riskier choice by the day. I’m still rooting for Izzy regardless. And this story from the Bergen Record is sort of heartbreaking.

Pat Misch (7:1): Misch remains versatile, accurate, left-handed and subject to waivers, all factors working in his favor. Sure doesn’t sound like he’ll make the club though. I am a Pat Misch fan, so here’s hoping he clears waivers — certainly a possibility — and joins Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Josh Stinson and Boof Bonser in a surprisingly deep Buffalo rotation.

Mike O’Connor (11:1): O’Connor still throws left-handed, but since he has options, it’s hard to figure how he could trump fellow lefty Misch for a roster spot. He will likely vie with Taylor Tankersley for opportunities out of the Buffalo bullpen.

The field (23:1): Keep fighting, Les Walrond.

Adam Rubin uncovers the news that Blaine Boyer has an out clause in his contract, meaning he could leave the Mets rather than be assigned to Triple-A.

Needless to say, that changes the picture with the adjusted bullpen odds posted here earlier this week. Boyer, a hard-throwing right-hander like Manny Acosta and Pedro Beato, has been the best in Grapefruit League play of the men vying for the last spot in the bullpen. It’s a tiny eight-inning sample and Spring Training stats are silly, but if the team deems all else equal, his 1.13 ERA could earn him a spot over Acosta or 38-year-old Jason Isringhausen.

But is all else equal? Since Beato is a 24-year-old Rule 5 guy with impressive stuff and the most upside of the four, Rubin assumes he has a leg up for one of the spots. That makes sense; of the candidates, he is the most likely to contribute to the Mets’ future, and it seems silly to risk losing that for a guy that might not be around come July.

Boyer and Acosta are comparable, serviceable arms for the back end of a bullpen. They are roughly the same age. Acosta has been more effective as a Major League reliever, with a 123 career ERA+ to Boyer’s 93. The Panamanian strikes out more batters, but he walks more too. Boyer has yielded a higher groundball rate across his career, and — though tons of sample size caveats exist — it might be worth noting that Acosta has yielded progressively fewer grounders in every season since his rookie campaign.

According to the Baseball Injury Tool, Acosta has been hurt only once in his career — a hamstring strain that required a DL stint in 2008 –. Boyer endured a shoulder surgery in 2006 and has suffered a host of minor back and trunk injuries. Boyer has more Major League service time and thus more time to accrue injuries. Though the tool tracks Minor League injuries, I am not sure to what extent.

Still, based on that information, I’d probably opt for Acosta over Boyer, though it’s kind of a toss-up. And that’s only based on information readily accessible on the Internet. The team has more than I do, no doubt, including a crucial piece: Knowledge of if Boyer would take the opt-out in his contract should he fail to make the team.

Plenty of clubs need bullpen help at this and every juncture; would Boyer find a spot on a Major League team if he left Mets camp on March 31? Hard to say. Would a Triple-A job with another organization be more desirable? I tend to doubt it — the Mets have plenty of uncertainty in the bullpen, and perhaps Boyer would accept an assignment to Buffalo knowing he will likely be the first-call replacement when one of the guys that breaks camp with the big club goes down.

I haven’t spoken to the man (or his agent) and I’m not certain it’s the type of thing a player would be eager to talk to reporters about anyhow. Maybe Boyer is hellbent on starting the season in the Major Leagues and certain some team would swoop him up as soon as he becomes available.

Plus there’s the whole Isringhausen thing to consider. Isringhausen, since he has proven he can be a great Major League reliever, offers the team the most short-term upside. Given Isringhausen’s age and injury history, though, it’s hard to expect him to be able to contribute to the club even for a full season.

In any case, the news about Boyer’s option doesn’t seem to bode well for Pat Misch or Mike O’Connor, especially the latter. Because this is how I entertain myself, I will post even further adjusted bullpen odds sometime later today, after I get a chance to do the math.

The Mets optioned Justin Turner to Triple-A today, thus ending — for now — the Justin Turner Lobby.

Paul DePodesta said something interesting in his Baseball Prospectus chat yesterday:

Our Opening Day roster is just that – a roster for Opening Day only. We can change it the next day and the day after and the day after. Though there’s a certain cache to the Opening Day roster, it’s really just one day in a long season. All that means is that the 2B job will probably continue to be a competition until somebody makes it their own, and I suspect somebody will.

Though I am still not convinced Brad Emaus is a better fit for the position than Turner, sending Turner down buys the Mets some time to determine if Emaus can be a long-term contributor to the team. It was the only way to keep both Emaus and Turner in the organization, so it is probably the most logical move.

If at some point it becomes clear that Emaus cannot handle the position — either offensively or defensively — the Mets can ship him back to the Blue Jays or find a spot for him on the bench and recall Turner. Going with Turner out of the gate would mean dispatching Emaus to Canada now.

If Emaus is going to start the bulk of games at second base, as most suspect, Daniel Murphy becomes the team’s primary left-handed bat off the bench. And that brings up a point I made to Matt Cerrone yesterday: Willie Harris becomes somewhat redundant on the roster.

Terry Collins has raved about Harris’ versatility, but Collins raves about practically everyone. It’s hard to envision a situation calling for a left-handed bat in which the team would choose Harris over Murphy (bunting?), and Scott Hairston gives the Mets a suitable fourth outfielder with plenty of experience (more than Harris) in center field. Harris can back up the infield positions too, but presumably the first call for all replacement-infielder needs will go to Chin-Lung Hu.

Most of the media has acted all spring as if Harris is a lock for the roster. Harris has an opt-out in his contract, so though he was signed to a Minor League deal he cannot be forced to accept an assignment to Buffalo. Internet legend Nick Evans, out of options, would have to pass through waivers to be sent to Triple-A.

If Carlos Beltran needs a week or two on the Disabled List to start the season, it buys the team some time to make a decision — the Mets could keep both Harris and Evans around, since presumably Hairston would be the stopgap in right field.

But if Beltran is ready to go by April 1, it seems to me (and I’ve said this before) like the team might be better served keeping Evans over Harris. Though Evans cannot boast quite the same defensive versatility or Major League resume as the veteran, he is seven years younger, locked up under team control for way longer and has more offensive upside.

I realize I’m once again quibbling over the 25th spot on the roster and that this season, it seems like the Mets’ front office might actually be thinking about these decisions more than I am. Perhaps they think Harris is the sparkplug that will catapult the Mets to contention, and Evans is doomed to a Hessmanian life of itinerant Triple-A mashing. But since neither is obvious, I’d rather see them go with the younger player and try to convince Harris to accept the Minor League assignment, knowing that he’ll likely get the first call when someone inevitably goes down with injury.

Isringhausen played catch on flat ground Tuesday and pronounced himself fit after taking what he said was “4-5 days off” because of inflammation in his elbow. The Mets had indicated Monday that Isringhausen was shut down for one day, but the pitcher said he took off more time, and his elbow was helped by taking anti-inflammatory medicine.

Isringhausen said he will throw a bullpen session Wednesday, have a day off and then resume pitching every other day as he tries to make the team as a reliever. Manager Terry Collins said he hoped to get Isringhausen into a game Wednesday, but then said he would discuss the pitcher’s schedule with Warthen.

– Anthony McCarron, N.Y. Daily News.

Look: I want Jason Isringhausen to make the Mets’ Opening Day roster. Isringhausen, with all the hope and hype surrounding him, played a vital role in the summer of 1995, one of my favorite years of Mets fandom. His return to the team would make for a great story, plus he has been an excellent reliever for much of his career. If he could pull it all together for one more season, he would be a very valuable cog in the Mets’ bullpen.

But the thing about Izzy, heck, the thing about most 38-year-old pitchers — not just the ones with Izzy’s lengthy medical history who haven’t thrown more than eight Major League innings during the Obama administration —  is there’s a pretty good chance he falls victim to injury at any time. This four-to-five day shutdown is not a big deal in Spring Training because Grapefruit League games are meaningless. But how often will Isringhausen need to be shut down for four to five days during the regular season?

Who knows? He says he feels good, apparently. We will know more after he throws a bullpen session today.

If Isringhausen makes the Major League roster, it will come at the expense of one of Pedro Beato, Manny Acosta and Pat Misch. Beato is a Rule 5 pick who would have to be returned to the Orioles, Acosta and Misch are out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to Triple-A. Though none of those relievers has anything like Izzy’s resume, they’re all more likely than Isringhausen to stay healthy for a full season, or, for that matter, a full month.

The Mets’ front office is, presumably, working with more information than I am. They should have a better sense of the severity of Isringhausen’s elbow inflammation, the potential of Beato, Acosta and Misch to help the club over a full season, and the chances that Acosta and Misch would clear waivers.

I guess the question is: Is Isringhausen, at 38 and basically four seasons removed from being an effective Major League reliever, going to hold up long enough and be so much better than Acosta (or pick any of the three) that it’s worth losing Acosta?

Maybe. Acosta and Misch are known quantities, and neither is likely to go all Cliff Lee on the National League in 2011. But they’re both decent enough to contribute to a big-league bullpen, and if Isringhausen’s not healthy he won’t be.