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Mets bullpen odds
I do something like this every year, and at some point it became less about trying to predict what players would fill certain spots on the Mets and more about certain hangups I have about odds.
(I present the odds here in the frequently used format — [Chance of an event not happening]:[Chance of an event happening]. In other words, the chance of rolling a three on a six-sided die is here noted 5:1. There are five outcomes on the die that are not three, and one three.)
For the purposes of this discussion, I am assuming that Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell and D.J. Carrasco are locks for the Mets’ bullpen. I know there has been talk that the Mets would give Carrasco a shot to start, but with Chris Young and Chris Capuano healthy, I figure Carrasco’s bound for a relief role. For that matter, I did not include Capuano as a candidate for the bullpen.
Figuring the Mets will carry seven relievers, that leaves four open spots. By my count, there are 12 guys still in camp in competition: Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, Oliver Perez, Boof Bonser, Blaine Boyer, Tim Byrdak, Ryota Igarashi, Jason Isringhausen, Mike O’Connor and Taylor Tankersley.
Check this out: If Terry Collins went full chaos-theory and decided to fill the remaining bullpen slots by picking four names out of a hat, each guy would have a 1 in 3 shot of making it, or 2:1 odds.
And yet somewhere this offseason, someone will inevitably take a similar approach to roster speculation but give 2:1 odds to only the most likely candidate. Find that man and place a bet with him. Bet lots of money on that most likely candidate making the team, and ask the blogger or reporter to make good on his odds by doubling your money when that guy does make the team.
Actually, don’t do that. It’s a jerky thing to do. My point is only that if the odds look a little strange here, it’s because there are so many open spots and the Mets will inevitably fill them.
OK, back to that: Other factors in the Mets’ decision include that Manny Acosta and Pat Misch are out of options, Pedro Beato is a Rule 5 pick and Boof Bonser has an opt-out clause in his contract that lets him walk if he doesn’t make the Major League roster, though he’s no lock to leave.
So without further ado, here we go:
Taylor Buchholz (1:5): Buchholz, now 21 months removed from Tommy John surgery, appears healthy and has been effective in his Grapefruit League outings so far. Since he got a Major League contract, I considered placing him among the “locks” that wouldn’t be listed here, but having 12 guys for four slots made the math on that hat point way easier.
Tim Byrdak (1:2): Thus far, good news for Mets bullpen candidates with my initials. The Mets will definitely need a lefty and Byrdak is one. The veteran has been an effective if unspectacular lefty specialist for four seasons. He’s 37, but he’ll probably only be asked to face one batter at a time.
Jason Isringhausen (5:7): OMG LOL! Next the Mets are going to sign Craig Swan, Sidd Finch and Jay Hook amirite? After inspiring a full day’s worth of tired Twitter humor, Isringhausen has drawn nothing but oohs and ahhs in camp. He is 38 and has a variety of injuries in his history that could act up at any time, but it sure sounds like he’s going to be on the team if he’s healthy on Opening Day.
Pedro Beato (1:1): A Queens native with an impressive fastball, Beato likely has a leg up on his competitors because cutting him would mean sending him back to the Orioles and, at 24, he can boast more upside than Pat Misch or Manny Acosta.
Manny Acosta (7:5): You know, I’m not sure I realized how good Acosta was in his 39 2/3-inning stint with the Mets last year. He walked too many guys, but he struck out more than a batter an inning and posted a 134 ERA+. He was also pretty decent in Triple-A. You have to figure someone will scoop him up if he is put on waivers.
Pat Misch (2:1): Misch could wind up victim of a numbers crunch, unfortunate since he’s been nothing but decent in every role the Mets have asked him to fill in the past two seasons. The lefty control artist isn’t going to blow the ball by anybody, but his versatility and relative health could help him crack the roster if Collins decides he needs a spot-starter type. Might not be a bad idea if Young and Capuano are in the back of the rotation.
Mike O’Connor (5:1): I’m really rooting for O’Connor to make the team, though he seems like something of a longshot. He’s the only player in camp who looks like he should be playing stickball with me and my friends instead of Major League Baseball with Jose Reyes. He has a cool delivery and it seems like it can get lefties out.
Blaine Boyer (7:1): The red-headed Boyer throws pretty hard and Collins has raved about his fastball. But Collins raves about lots of stuff, and Boyer allows too many baserunners. He has been decent in 4 1/3 Grapefruit League innings and hasn’t been downright terrible across his career, but he’s probably not a Plan A guy. Figure he goes to Buffalo and gets the call when one of the Major Leaguers gets lit up or shut down.
Taylor Tankersley (7:1): I may be reading this one all wrong, but the way I see it, Tankersley has only thrown 29 2/3 Major League innings since 2007 and few of them have been great. He’s still pretty young and pitched decently in Triple-A last year, plus by all accounts he’s a great guy who wants to start a band with our promos department, it just seems like it’ll be hard for him to beat out fellow lefties Byrdak and Misch and, to a lesser extent, O’Connor for a roster spot.
Boof Bonser (11:1): I’m not even certain Bonser belongs on this list because he has mostly been a starter in his career. His name is Boof Bonser, which is awesome, and he was the third guy traded with Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski. Maybe he makes the Mets as a long guy or if a starter gets hurt, but my bet is he declines his opt-out clause and joins the Mets’ Triple-A rotation. The Buffalo Bisons’ Boof Bonser? It’s too good to pass up. Boofalo!
Ryota Igarashi (11:1): Near the end of my stay in Port St. Lucie, Terry Collins said he hasn’t seen the same splitter from Igarashi in the United States that he did in Japan and wondered if it had something to do with the slightly larger ball. That seemed worth following up on, but I didn’t see Igarashi and his interpreter before I left. Still throws gas, so there’s some chance he figures something out and helps the Mets before his contract is up.
Oliver Perez (23:1).
The field (23:1): This is for all the guys on loan from Tabasco of the Mexican League and the Les Walronds and Dale Thayers of the world. Sometimes some guy shows up, turns heads, and gets a locker at Citi Field.
Most Big East teams make the NCAA Tournament
A record 11 Big East teams were chosen to compete in the 68-team tournament, including regular-season winner Pittsburgh as the No. 1 seed in the Southeast.
UConn, which completed an unprecedented run through the Big East tournament Saturday by winning its fifth game in five days, gained the conference’s automatic bid.
Ten teams were chosen among the 37 at-large selections: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John’s, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova.
The previous record was eight, set by the Big East in 2008.
There’s probably going to be a lot of college hoops talk everywhere in the next week, and I suppose the Big East earning 11 bids provides as good a segue as I’m going to find to explain my rooting and bracket-completing interests every March.
First off: I pick Georgetown to win in every bracket I fill out every year (at least now that they reliably make the Tournament; no thanks to you, Craig Esherick). I know that this is not necessarily the smart way to bet, . But I also know that your method, whatever it is, is also not necessarily the smart way to bet, and mine offers me the slim chance of ultimate awesomeness in reward. I don’t want to ever even imagine a situation in which Georgetown reaches the finals but I stand to win money if they lose.
And none of this “one bracket with my team, one ‘real’ bracket,” nonsense either. That’s for sissies. This is the only time all year I go all in for my alma mater. I will mention the $50 I will inevitably lose when next someone calls asking for an alumni donation.
The second most important thing is that Syracuse loses. I’m not dumb enough to pick them to lose that early in the tournament because Jim Boeheim and his stupid face are too good for that, but I’ll write them off somewhere around the Sweet 16. Again, don’t want to invite a scenario wherein I stand to benefit from the Orange winning.
After that, I root for Big East supremacy above all. I won’t bet this way, but I’m pulling for an Elite 8 with seven Big East squads. (There is no Big East team in one half of the West regional.)
So we’ll say, I don’t know, Georgetown over UConn in the finals? Book it.
Now presenting the best thing ever
I have friends in the promos department:
For what it’s worth, Gil, the fellow with the dog there, is SNY’s one-man IT army and, in truth, a good guy who’s very good at his job. But I have been tweaking him on Twitter for months trying to convince him to find room in the IT budget to get me a company iPad for… I don’t know. If I had one, I’d know all the important work-related things I could be doing on it.
Also, the way Mets fans Blame Beltran for everything that goes wrong, SNY employees — by which I mean me, primarily — blame Gil. As far as I’m concerned, basically everything that plugs in around here is his responsibility, so if my cable box is wonky or the little red voicemail indicator on my phone isn’t working or light bulbs burn out, that’s because of something Gil did. So obviously my troubling lack of an iPad2 falls directly on his shoulders.
Sandwich of the Week
Busy weekend; no time for nonsense.
The sandwich: Romeo from Alidoro, 105 Sullivan St. in Manhattan.
The construction: A loaf of unseeded Italian bread, scooped out, with sliced smoked chicken breast, Bel Paese cheese, arugula, hot pepper spread and oil and balsamic vinegar.
Important background information: I have been recommended Alidoro many times over by sandwich enthusiasts I trust, and I chose the Romeo because it is the Alidoro sandwich included in the Grub Street Top 101 list. Now for an important revelation: When magazines review and photograph sandwiches, they b.s. you a little. That stunningly beautiful picture of the Romeo you see on the Grub Street sandwich list? Yeah, that’s just not really what this sandwich looks like.
I guess that should come as no surprise. No one goes to McDonald’s and expects the burgers there to look like they do in the commercials either. And it’s not like the real-life Romeo came out looking terribly unappetizing or anything.
I just thought this was a good time to mention that here at TedQuarters, the sandwiches are photographed and reviewed as they’re served. I don’t tell anyone I’m planning on blogging about the sandwiches. It’s sort of like the Phantom Gourmet, except if by some chance someone recognized me I’d think it was totally sweet and probably give them a totally biased review.
Also, for what it’s worth: There’s a lot of pomp and circumstance at Alidoro for a tiny sandwich shop. The guy at the counter was nice to me, but there were all sorts of signs everywhere about how you should and shouldn’t order and stuff like that. A little too Philadelphian for my tastes. And I’ve stood behind the counter and I recognize that it can get frustrating, but I do think there’s something to be said for treating the customer like a customer, plus I’m pretty confident in my ability to clearly communicate what I want on my sandwich.
What it actually looks like:
How it tastes: Like three things: Excellent Italian bread, balsamic vinegar, and hot pepper spread.
Make no mistake: All those things are delicious. But there are other delicious ingredients on this sandwich that I was hoping would assert themselves a little more. I could taste the smoked, thin-sliced chicken only when I pulled individual pieces of it off the back of the sandwich. When I did, it was good — reasonably moist for sliced chicken with only a subtle smoky flavor. But on the sandwich, it was lost. All it did was thicken it up and add meatiness.
Same goes for the Bel Paese cheese. It was tough for me to order a sandwich at an Italian place that didn’t come with fresh or smoked mozzarella, but I thought Bel Paese was an innovative choice for a sandwich cheese so I stuck with it. If I scooped a little out of the sandwich with my finger to sample, I enjoyed a creamy, buttery cheese — almost like Italian cream cheese, I guess. And though perhaps with great focus its texture could be imagined on the sandwich, its flavor disappeared into the abyss.
There is arugula on there, too.
As for the parts you could taste: Fantastic. The bread was incredibly fresh, and because it was scooped out it wasn’t overwhelmingly bready or anything. Flaky on the outside and soft and delicious on the inside. Balsamic vinegar is one of my favorite dressings for Italian sandwiches, though it needs to be applied with a very light hand — there’s a ton of flavor in each drop. And the red-pepper spread, though perhaps not as smooth-looking as depicted in New York magazine, had a real nice kick to it.
I would venture to guess, in fact, that you could take any number of meats and cheeses, put them on the bread from Alidoro, add the oil and balsamic vinegar and red pepper spread and get a pretty good sandwich.
That’s why I was a little disappointed. There was so much potential here, but nothing special that made this combination the one. On a truly transcendent sandwich, there is harmony among the ingredients. On this one, a couple of show-off kids in the choir were singing way too loud and it threw off the whole balance.
What it’s worth: Not an inexpensive sandwich. I believe it cost $11, plus two subway rides for me. A lot of food though.
How it rates: 86 out of 100.
Twitter Q&A-style product
I’m very tired. Here’s something:
Good question. You mean where is it right now, or where is it available from? I’ve been in the mood for a good grilled cheese since Ted Burke sent me that text from Bradenton. But to me the best grilled cheeses come from my kitchen, and I like ’em old-school, the way my dad used to make them when I’d come home for lunch in elementary school: American cheese on white bread, grilled golden brown on a ton of butter. If you want to throw bacon on there, I mean, obviously that’s cool, but it’s not even necessary.
I’m open to eateries with good grilled cheeses, though. Anyone know of any?
My take: He’s still Luis Castillo. I don’t want to sound mean to be fatalistic about this, but it’s the same dude who has been downright brutal for three years. I get that he’s in good shape and he lost weight and maybe that’s worth something, but how much? Is he suddenly going to be a rangy fielder for the first time since 2007? Is he, at 35, likely to do anything more than tread water?
I’m guessing no. And even if he is a better fielder than Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner, I find it hard to believe he’s so much better that it will mitigate the difference in offense. I mean, hell — even if Murphy’s downright terrible there and you take him out of the competition, Emaus and Turner have both played full seasons at second in the Minors. Turner has played shortstop! You’re telling me neither of these guys can provide the Mets more than Castillo can at this point? I’m sorry, I find that hard to believe. And no three Grapefruit League games are going to change my mind.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I wonder what it is I’m missing about Turner. Look at his stats: He has been good in every Minor League stop. Old for most levels, yes, but always solid on-base percentages with some pop. In fact, using the Minor League Equivalency calculator, Turner’s 2010 comes out much better than Emaus’, since Emaus’ numbers were inflated by the Pacific Coast League. Turner’s line in Buffalo translates to .280/.329/.420, while Emaus’ Las Vegas rates equate to .229/.311/.369.
So much. I know it’s bad form to complain about work stuff in these trying economic times, and really, I’m in no position to whine about any aspect of a job that occasionally pays me to watch baseball games. But pants are total b.s.
Seriously, I have to wear pants to edit a website? Really? And no jeans; that’s the rule. Every so often we’re allowed to wear jeans because it’s snowing or it’s Christmas Eve or a swarm of locusts has descended upon Manhattan, and even though that day should be massively inconvenient, it’s not so bad because I’m so much more comfortable. Confident too. I look better in jeans.
It was the Media Noche. A couple people asked me about my Spring Training sandwich picks so let Nate’s Tweet stand in for all of them. The Port St. Lucie sandwich scene is bleak. It is almost entirely fast food and chain restaurants. I tried the Angus Three Cheese and Bacon sandwich at Arby’s. It’s gross, I’m sorry to say. I ate a surprisingly decent buffalo chicken sandwich at Ruby Tuesday.
I did have a pretty delicious Jamaican beef patty at a place called Jerk City out on U.S. 1. I would consider a beef patty a sandwich, because I use a very liberal definition of the term “sandwich.” I understand that others would not call this a sandwich.
I’m going back to Florida for the last couple of Spring Training games and then the opening series in Miami. I understand I will have way more exciting culinary options in Miami than I did in Port St. Lucie. I look forward to it.
What killed the spitball?
Is there a connection in the game today to Frank Shellenback? Yes there is! The most notable connection is Phil Regan, who had a fairly good spitball. Regan went on to become a manager, coach and pitching coach, including coaching on the 2000 U.S. Olympic baseball team, with pitchers Ryan Franklin, Roy Oswalt, Bobby Seay and Ben Sheets*.
* Tin foil hat time, folks.
In many ways we can point the rise and fall of the spitball to one person: Frank Shellenback, the Sinister Minister of the Spitball.
– Mat Kovach, The Hardball Times.
A good read from The Hardball Times about the history of the Major Leagues’ most reviled pitch. Kovach credits the resurgence of the spitball to Frank Shellenback, and — though he doesn’t say it outright — seems to suggest that as Shellenback’s legacy wanes, so does the spitball.
I wonder if spitballs, vaseline balls, snotballs, scuffed balls and doctored balls of all varieties are quickly becoming a thing of the past thanks to modern technology. It seems like with the number of HD cameras in stadiums now, a pitcher would need to be David Blaine to get away with it with any regularity. Of course, I guess some subtle sandpaper in the glove could still go unnoticed.
Something actually happens: Mets make first cuts
The Mets made their first series of cuts today and Adam Rubin has the unofficial list.
There are no huge surprises here, though we can now put to bed the speculation that arose yesterday in some corners that Jordany Valdespin could slip his way into the second-base competition. Valdespin is supposedly a great defender at second, but he never, ever walks.
Specifically, he walked 10 times in 405 plate appearances last season and only twice in 117 plate appearances after his promotion to Double-A. Since it’s not like Valdespin is making a ton of great contact or anything — he hit .272 for the year and .232 in Binghamton — Major League pitchers would absolutely feast on the guy. He swings too much. He’d suck. Unless he made some massive, unprecedented adjustment over the winter, he’s just not anything like ready for prime time.
No-longer Teenage Hurting Machine Fernando Martinez got cut as well. This means he’s out of the running to replace Carlos Beltran in right field should Beltran prove unable to start the season.
That’s probably a good thing. Martinez, like Valdespin, needs more time in the Minors. Though he’s certainly closer to a finished product, he has a lifetime .325 Triple-A on-base percentage and probably needs more exposure to breaking stuff. It looks great when he connects and since he’s still only 22 there’s plenty of time for him, but Lucas Duda and Nick Evans, both 25, are the more polished hitters.
I thought there was some chance Manny Alvarez could sneak onto the roster, but he was a longshot to begin with and the emergence of Jason Isringhausen made that impossible. Alvarez rocked a straight-up ridiculous 9.5:1 K:BB rate in Binghamton last year, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with the big club in the summer when one of the bullpen guys gets hurt or proves ineffective.
Am I spamming the crap out of you right now?
If you’re getting annoying emails from me, let me know. When I first started this site, I briefly had a subscription service set-up wherein users got notified whenever I posted anything. Problem was, we actually couldn’t figure out how to add an unsubscribe option to the emails, and when I started posting more often they got extremely annoying. Eventually I couldn’t take it anymore and I shut ’em down.
Last night, I needed to fire the thing back up for administrative purposes. I tried to get all the real, human users unsubscribed from the notifications but if I missed you, send me an email at tberg@sny.tv (or just reply to the spam) and I’ll make sure you’re removed from the list.
So what’s happening here?
OK check it out. Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog, yesterday:
In talking to people in camp, and others connected to the team, it seems Brad Emaus could end up getting the bulk of the playing time at second base to start the season. That could change, of course. But, as of now, he’s the front-runner.
John Harper in the Daily News, this morning:
Still, if I had to pick a favorite to open the season at second, I’d go with Murphy. The Mets believe he has the most offensive potential of the candidates, and since Emaus and Turner are also offensive-oriented players, Murphy seems to be in line to get the first crack.
David Waldstein in the New York Times, this morning:
After two weeks of exhibition games, it appears that the 35-year-old Luis Castillo, in the final season of his often-belittled four-year, $24 million contract, has the early lead for the Mets’ second-base job.
So what’s happening here? Is one of these reporters lying to us, or relying on bad sources?
Doubtful. My bet is there is no definite frontrunner for the starting second-base job at this point in the spring, and the various decision-makers in camp have varying opinions on which hopeful is best for the position.
There are a ton of coaches and executives around. Look at the Mets’ travel roster, via Adam Rubin. See that right column, 19 dudes deep? That’s the staff list, and that only includes uniformed personnel, and that’s not even the full group — there’s another column that got cut off in this photo. Ask one and he’ll probably tell you one second baseman has been the most impressive. Ask another, and he’ll tell you something completely different.
We can speculate all we want, and since it seems to be the only wide-open position in the lineup (and since so many take Luis Castillo’s continued presence on the roster personally) we eat up these reports. But the amount of conflict in them seems to imply that no decisions have been made. Terry Collins said last week that the competition will be narrowed down by the Mets’ off day on March 14. We will know more then.
Tedquarters 