No man but Carlos Beltran is Carlos Beltran, and there’s some chance Carlos Beltran is not a man at all. The jury is still out on if he’s superhuman.
But it is not reasonable to say, “oh, well, one center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran is the same as any other center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran,” which, by suggesting he’ll platoon switch-hitting Gary Matthews Jr. and switch-hitting Angel Pagan based on favorable matchups, is what Jerry Manuel is doing.
It has been three long years since Matthews posted a season as good as the one Pagan provided the Mets in 2009, and Matthews spent the final two of those toiling comfortably below the Major League replacement level. Perhaps there’s something to be said for a change of scenery, not to mention the switch to the easier league, but to think Matthews, at 35, could suddenly start again performing as well as Pagan did just last year on either side of the ball represents the type of logic that– oh, right. The Mets.
– Me, here, April 3.
My apologies for the back-patting but I want to make a point. I’m going to do this Harper’s Index style.
Games Gary Matthews Jr. has started in center field: 8
Mets’ record in those eight games: 2-6
Number of the six losses that were by one run: 3
Matthews’ line in the one-run losses he started in center: .111/.333/.222
There are obviously a lot of small samples in play in that data. And because Angel Pagan ultimately replaced Matthews in one of those games and Matthews has started games at other positions, it’s difficult to quantify what type of difference Pagan might have made if he started all those contests.
But it’s not unreasonable to guess that the Mets might have a win or two more already if they had just inserted Pagan into the starting lineup on Opening Day, as just about everyone besides Jerry Manuel (and presumably Omar Minaya) was certain they should.
Because Angel Pagan is good. Better than Matthews even. By Fangraphs.com‘s WAR, Pagan has been the fifth-best player in the National League this season. By baseball-reference.com‘s version of the same stat, he’s third.
Pagan leads all center fielders in UZR in a season highlighted by several spectacular diving grabs. On offense, he has maintained a very similar level of production to his impressive 2009 campaign. And all over the field, he has avoided the type of mental mistakes that earned him the vitriol of a large fraction of Mets fans and media last season.
And according to Cot’s MLB Contracts, Pagan is arbitration-eligible and under the Mets’ control through the 2012 season. That’s excellent news.
The young outfielder has been plagued by a series of random and unfortunate injuries in his career, but Mets fans clamoring for the team to enter a bidding war for Carl Crawford next offseason should probably bite their tongues. Pagan and Crawford both play great defense and are nearly exactly the same age. Crawford’s having a great season, but his career line is .296/.336/.440. Pagan’s is .283/.337/.440.
Crawford steals a lot more bases and has been good for way longer, so he’s a more valuable commodity than Pagan. But Pagan has developed into a remarkably similar player, and granted health, the difference between the two in on-field production won’t come close to matching the difference in their salaries.
So in conclusion, Angel Pagan is better than Gary Matthews Jr. Hooray.
