I just ran into a smart dude and good Mets fan who told me he thought the team should pursue Jon Garland, and definitely not Ben Sheets. He said they needed more certainty in the rotation, given how shaky things were after Johan Santana, and that Sheets did nothing to shore anything up.

That’s hard to argue with, but I did. Here’s why:

Jon Garland is just OK. He’s one of the most reliable bets in the Major Leagues to pitch 200 innings, and that’s definitely worth something. But they won’t be 200 great innings, or even 200 very good innings. They’ll just be 200 innings.

I think Garland would be a great guy to have around if the Mets knew they were going to get healthy seasons out of Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes and a productive one out of David Wright. Garland is the type of pitcher who can win games for a good offense, but probably not the type of pitcher who can win games on his own.

Ben Sheets, when he’s right, is precisely that type of pitcher. Sheets is coming off elbow surgery and hasn’t pitched since 2008 and so represents a pretty sizable risk. But he pitched like an ace in 2008 and the potential reward is much larger than anything Garland could offer.

Garland is the safer move, sure. But the Mets, as currently constructed, shouldn’t be making the safer move. With the Phillies, Braves and, to a lesser extent, the Marlins all poised to contend in the NL East in 2010, the Mets’ best shot at a playoff run is to take big bets on upside and hope they pay off.

Sure, it’d be nice if that weren’t the case, and the Mets had a roster full of sure things and just needed a steady back-of-the-rotation innings-eater like Garland to complete the package.

But the Mets, instead, have question marks basically everywhere.

Plus, as I’ve written before, they could probably scrap together something similar to the 200 decent Major League innings Garland would provide from a combination of Nelson Figueroa, Fernando Nieve and Jon Niese. One minor benefit to 2009 was that it forced the Mets to accumulate some much-needed depth.

What they likely won’t get from that group, though, is the type of dominance Sheets might provide. And they wouldn’t get that from Garland, either.

Obviously money is a big factor, and rumors earlier this offseason said Garland wanted to stay on the West Coast and Sheets wanted to go to Texas, so this could be an entirely pointless blog post. Plus if Sheets wants an Oliver Perez contract, then, well, screw it.

That’s all I’ve got.

Nick Piecoro at AZCentral.com reports that there’s nothing new on the Chris Snyder front, but I wanted to discuss it a little further.

I mentioned Luis Castillo in my post yesterday, but I was mostly kidding (hence the reference to fingers and toes being crossed, and the rare use of the double question mark). But when Mets fans consider their favorite team taking on another team’s unwanted salary, they instinctively hope Castillo can somehow be pawned off in the deal.

But though the money and years owed to Castillo and Snyder are actually quite similar — Castillo is owed $12 million through 2011 and Snyder $10.5 plus a $750,000 buyout, so $11.25 million total — there’s a huge, huge difference in their contracts. It’s this:

If Snyder is healthy and playing the way he did in 2007 and 2008, he is a bargain at that rate. If Castillo is healthy and playing the way he did in 2009, he is still overpaid.

So think about it this way: Snyder, especially to a team without a catcher, offers a ton of upside, despite the injury-related risk. Castillo, to the Diamondbacks, offers the possibility he’ll play like Luis Castillo. And lest we forget, he still brings a fair share of injury-related risk, too.

Plus, if the Diamondbacks believe Snyder will return to full strength after back surgery, it could behoove them to hold off on trading him and wait to see if Miguel Montero continues his success. Then, if he does, Snyder could be dealt during the season, once he’s proven his health and his value has risen.

Also, it would seem strange for Arizona to deal Snyder, presumably to free up payroll, only to take on more payroll in Castillo. Plus they’ve already added one shaky-fielding second baseman this offseason in Kelly Johnson.

Piecoro offers a great rundown of the Diamondbacks’ potential motivation to trade or not trade Snyder, and I recommend reading it. It’s always important to keep in mind that two teams need to sign off on deals. I forget too often myself.

Everytime I hear Mets assistant GM John Ricco’s name, I think of the following NOFX song, from one of my favorite albums ever, Punk in Drublic.

And I realized that there’s a whole lot about this song and the Mets’ current situation that seems to fit, really.

Things we never tried to disallow
have come back to haunt us now

According to Marty Noble, the Mets will go with Omir Santos and Henry Blanco at catcher and use the money they would have spent on Bengie Molina elsewhere. But according to Mike Francesa on WFAN today, the Mets could be targeting Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder in a trade.

I don’t necessarily believe either of them, following my standard procedure of not really believing anybody. But I kind of hope Francesa’s right in this case, because Snyder would be an intriguing pickup.

Snyder, you may recall, was rumored to be dealt to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason, but ultimately sent back to Arizona when the Jays vetoed the deal over concerns about Snyder’s surgically repaired back. So that’s bad. Put that down under “bad.”

And Snyder — possibly due to the bulging disc in his back that ultimately required surgery — struggled in 2009 and lost his starting job to Miguel Montero. He hit .200 with a .333 on-base percentage and .352 slugging. More for the “bad” column.

But before that, Snyder appeared to be one of the better young catchers in baseball. As the Diamondbacks’ regular backstop in 2007 and 2008, Snyder posted OPSes of .775 and .800, well above average for a catcher, and by all accounts played competent defense.

Snyder will be 29 on Opening Day, so if he’s healthy it’s not unreasonable to expect him to return to form. Of course, it does seem a bit risky to go out and acquire a catcher coming off back surgery, especially one another team has already vetoed the same offseason.

I have no clue how well Snyder handles staffs, but Brandon Webb did not appear to have any trouble dominating National League hitters under Snyder’s guidance in 2007 and 2008.

Clearly, Snyder would be worth taking a flyer on if it were just that. But of course, it’s not just that.

I have no idea what it would take to land Snyder. The deal with the Blue Jays that fell through was for Lyle Overbay, but since it fell through, I have to assume Snyder would cost the Mets something less valuable than Lyle Overbay.

The Diamondbacks were said then to be looking to part with Snyder’s contract — he is owed about $10.5 million over the next two seasons — to free up payroll to sign other players.

I can’t speak to whether they have any more budget flexibility, but it does appear they could still use some depth in the starting rotation behind Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson (a mighty trio, no doubt), so I wonder if Arizona will be tempted to move Snyder to be able to lock down a familiar innings eater like Jon Garland.

Still, even under those circumstances, teams don’t give away 29-year-old catchers one season removed from two productive years for free, and I have no idea what the Diamondbacks would want from the Mets for Snyder. A prospect? A relief arm? (Fingers and toes crossed) Luis Castillo??

Snyder is definitely someone the Mets should be targeting, but obviously it’s impossible to just say “go get him” without considering the cost. He’s probably a safer bet than Santos to be an effective starting Major League catcher in 2010, though, so it can’t hurt the Mets to inquire.

Twitter is positively exploding with reports that Bengie Molina has re-signed with the San Francisco Giants to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

Suck it down, Dailey.

Actually, given the terms of the contract, it’s not a terrible signing for Brian Sabean’s team, and to be honest, I find it difficult to believe the Mets didn’t offer Molina more than that.

If anything, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Mets did, in fact, offer at least that much, but when they were unwilling to guarantee a second year, Molina opted to stay in San Francisco. I suppose more details will follow.

Anyway, good for the Mets for holding firm. Guaranteeing a second year would have been bad.

Plus, as Tom Boorstein just pointed out to me, whenever the guy you were trying to sign ends up signing with the Giants, it means you probably didn’t want that guy.

Maybe this whole handcuffed general manager plan will work out for the Mets yet.