Winter Meetings officially jump the shark

Many would have argued that the Winter Meetings jumped the shark a couple of years ago, specifically whenever MLB.com first came up with a special logo to brand their Winter Meetings coverage.

But I’m pretty certain the shark was actually jumped about a half hour ago, when AOL Fanhouse writer Ed Price tweeted that he heard a rumor the Mets had acquired Edwin Jackson.

Twitter nearly imploded. Every Mets fan and blogger weighed in, and numerous perplexed members of the New York media scrambled to find out if it was true.

I know this, of course, because they were all Twittering about it, too.

Then Price himself, only a few minutes later, clarified his Tweet, writing:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby

Ah yes. It was Ed Price in the lobby with the cell phone.

But you can’t really blame the guy, I mean, after all, he had a reliable source: He heard it in the lobby.

Now, I have no idea who broke the news to Price, but I’m enjoying imagining that it was some guy who recognized how funny it would be to loudly spread false gossip.

My friends and I used to do this all the time: One time we had a loud discussion at a basketball game about Clyde Drexler’s mysterious death (note: No disrespect to Clyde the Glide, it was completely made up), and by the time we exited the arena, we overheard other people discussing it.

So if you’re in Indianapolis this week, I strongly urge you to consider standing in the lobby of the convention center, loudly forwarding nonsense. If anyone calls you on it, say it’s performance art. Trust me; that excuse always works.

To be fair to Price, it’s not really his fault that he desperately Tweeted the rumor from the lobby without investigating further. That, much like Tiger Woods’ extramarital affairs, should be blamed on the relentless news-media environment.

Shinjo succeeds where Norm MacDonald couldn’t

Reader Takashi sent in a couple more links to video of Tsuyoshi Shinjo doing stuff, and since my post containing Shinjo video from early November remains one of this site’s most popular, I figured I’d give the people what they want.

Here’s what it looks like when Tsuyoshi Shinjo wins the Japanese version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?:

And here’s… I don’t know what this is. It appears to be some sort of game show focusing on batting cages. The Shinjo reveal at about 3:00 in is pretty magical. If someone speaks Japanese and can explain to me why he’s wearing a surgical mask on his chin, I’d be hugely appreciative.

Dithering?

Adam Rubin provides a nice roundup of the issues facing the Mets at the Winter Meetings in this morning’s Daily News.

It’s a reasonable assessment of the Mets’ needs and what Omar Minaya is and should be doing. One sentence gave me pause, though:

While the Mets dither, Chone Figgins (not a power threat, but a left field candidate) is headed to Seattle. And Marlon Byrd soon will be off the board, too.

“Dithering,” as detailed by Dave Tomar in this Perpetual Post piece from not too long ago, became a popular word recently among critics of Barack Obama — most notably Dick Cheney — to describe his inaction in Afghanistan.

Rubin’s use of the verb could have been coincidental or tongue-in-cheek, but, given his very public history with Minaya, it’s certainly curious. “Dithering,” after all, connotes timid indecisiveness, and there’s no prior evidence presented in Rubin’s news article to suggest the team lacks a plan or is sitting around wondering what to while players like Figgins and Byrd fly off the board.

That could very well be the case, of course, but the Mets should absolutely not be criticized for allowing Figgins (at four years and $36 million) and Byrd get away. Neither is a perfect fit for the team — neither even really addresses the needs Rubin states in the feature — so the Mets were appropriately inactive.

Beyond that, there’s really no negative fallout from “dithering” at this point in the offseason. The Mets have until March to put together the best roster possible. And patience could be a good thing.

Nullius in verba

The Winter Meetings start today and, coincidentally, the Times ran this piece from Mary Jo Murphy on Saturday. It opens with the motto of Britain’s 350-year old science fraternity, the Royal Society:

“Take no one’s word for it,” or, in Latin, “Nullius in verba.”

I feel like that’s probably the best approach for fans following the Winter Meetings at their computer screens, as I am.

A few things will happen, and many, many more things will not happen.

Rumors will be developed, disseminated, then dispelled.

I’ll do my best to sift through the nonsense as best as I can here, and weigh in on whatever rumors I hear that I feel like weighing in on.

What I won’t attempt here, though, is the aggregation of every the rumor I hear surrounding the locals. That, in the first Winter Meetings following the mainstream media’s introduction to Twitter, seems like a fool’s errand.

The Winter Meetings are fun, though, because we love to speculate about what teams could do. That is, after all, why they’ve become such a media event: They are great for Web traffic, because baseball fans can’t get enough of the rumor mill.

My point is just to go forward skeptically, as the Royal Society would. Try to trace back everything you read — here or anywhere else — to its original source, and try to pay close attention to the language being used.

Items of note

Sam Page at Amazin’ Avenue recaps his time at the Winter Meetings in 2007. The villain? You guessed it: Steve Phillips.

Former catcher Joe Janish weighs in on the reports that the Mets’ catchers were to blame for their awful pitching last year.

The biggest news of the Winter Meetings so far? MetsBlog has a new look.

Now Tiger Woods’ ridiculous cavalcade of mistresses includes a porn star. Hint to professional athletes: If you’re looking to keep your extramarital affairs discreet, it’s probably best to avoid porn stars. Turns out they’re not shy about making their sex lives public.

Hear me say stuff

I’ll be a guest on The Happy Recap radio show tonight. The show starts at 6 p.m. ET, and I’ll be calling in somewhere in the middle, likely from the lovely, lovely New Jersey Turnpike.

I’ll be using a hands-free device, but I talk with my hands, so I will have to focus on keeping them on the wheel while discussing the upcoming Winter Meetings with James, EJ and Griff.

In the interim, be sure to drop in on The Happy Recap’s forum.

Weekend update

I’ve been in DC for some Georgetown basketball (a thrilling victory over imposing American University) and so out of the loop a little bit this weekend.

But one vague rumor that seems to be blowing up my Twitter involves a three-way deal between the Mets, Cubs, and Rays, with Luis Castillo going to Chicago, Milton Bradley going to the Rays, and Pat Burrell coming to the Mets.

All three teams would be parting ways with a bad contract, though it’s tough to say exactly how the salaries would play out as there could also be money involved.

That said, Castillo and Bradley are signed through 2011. Burrell is owed $9 million for 2010.

I assume, if there’s any actual truth to the rumor, the Mets would use Burrell as a part-time player. Inserting a bad defender coming off a terrible offensive season in the everyday lineup would be a P.R. nightmare for an administration reportedly on thin ice; more likely, Burrell becomes a right-handed platoon partner for Daniel Murphy at first base, plus (likely ineffective) leverage to try to drive prices down on free-agent outfielders.

Burrell was awful last year to the tune of a .221/.315/.367 line, but, just looking at his baseball-reference page, he appears a likely bounceback candidate: He’s 33, and he was a consistently excellent hitter from 2005-2008. He also has a .916 lifetime OPS against left-handers, meaning if he could handle first base defensively, he’d be a good for a platoon there.

Whether Burrell and his $9 million over one year are worth Castillo and his $12 million over two years, I can’t say. Castillo, as a second baseman, was a much, much more valuable player than Burrell last season, even with his own defensive inadequacies.

That’s no safe bet to continue, of course, and if the Mets are so desperate to move Castillo’s contract, they probably won’t find a deal appreciably better than this one. It turns out it’s a bear market for 34-year-old second basemen with diminishing range, bad knees, no power and multi-year contracts.

Of course, by most accounts the Mets are so desperate to move Castillo’s multi-year contract so they can give another one to Orlando Hudson, a 32-year-old second basemen with diminishing range, so, you know, there’s that.

Without our buts we’d all be asses

I went to my 10-year high school reunion on Saturday. I didn’t plan on going, but at the last minute I realized I had nothing better to do, nothing to be bitter about, and no reasonable justification for turning down an open bar.

I’m glad I did; it was a good time. And it got me thinking, which I appreciate.

A few of my former classmates — Mets fans all — know my current occupation. The rest were surprised to learn that I’m not in politics, which seems laughable to me today, but decidedly wouldn’t to someone who hasn’t spoken to me in 10 years.

I went to college in Washington, D.C. because I was certain I had a future in government. I used to half-jokingly (but not nearly jokingly enough) say I wanted to be the President, mostly because I spent my teenage years seized by a pathetically vain desire to impact the world in some lasting way, a compulsion that could probably be better explained by a decent psychologist.

Then I went to college and met the people who would actually go into politics, and realized they were in it for more than vanity and the promise of free food. And I learned that, for every strong opinion I was certain I was right about, there was someone at least as smart as me who felt exactly the opposite way.

And the difference between me and them, in many cases, was that their confidence made me more skeptical about my views, while my confidence only seemed to make them more certain of their own.

That turned me off to the whole thing, and pretty quickly. How could I be so confident about things so many people — people I liked, and people whose company I enjoyed — were sure were wrong?

So I ultimately majored in English and music and bailed on plans to go to law school after graduation. I taught for a while, then went to grad school, then stumbled into an editing job, and now, here I am.

I mention that history on this ostensibly sports-based blog because of a good article I read on FullCountPitch.com detailing the mythical battle between sabermetricians and scouts.

As Gary Armida points out, the split in the way we evaluate baseball players exists mostly in the media, as every Major League organization weighs both the statistical evidence of past production and the observed indicators of future production.

That’s not to say, of course, that every team weighs the two equally, or that every team uses the same measurements and scouting techniques.

It is to say, though, that those too dogmatic on either side of the perceived divide are foolish. The best writers and the best fans, of course, know this. The worst participate in the kind of baiting and closed-mindedness that made me grow to hate politics.

This space, and all of my baseball writing, hinges mostly on stats, because they are something I can grasp. Numerical measurements are, by their very nature, perfect for simple comparisons.

And I focus on dime-store economic principles, because they’re often just extensions of common sense, and I strive to maintain that in most of my decisions (though I often fail).

But I recognize, of course, that there is a whole lot of merit to what scouts say. There is probably a reason why Yusmeiro Petit has yet to live up to his Minor League numbers in the Majors and why Jose Reyes has far exceeded his.

I don’t write about the scout’s perspective often because I am not a scout, and though I have some familiarity with the basics of baseball mechanics, I do not feel confident enough to opine about them without a professional level of understanding.

Instead, I temper nearly everything I write with buts and maybes and on the other hands, because even though I realize it weakens my writing, I know it is the best way to delay my exposure as an outright fool.

I feel confident that if the Mets sign Bengie Molina to a multi-year deal it will prove to be a mistake and that if they sign Matt Holliday to a multi-year deal it will not, but I am not sure of either.

The only thing I am certain of is uncertainty. There’s a ton of that in baseball — and in politics, for that matter — but not nearly enough of it in the way it is represented.

Interesting Phillies note

Howard Megdal brought up a very interesting point by e-mail last night. According to Fox Sports, the Phillies reached out to second baseman Orlando Hudson to see if he would be willing to move to third base before they signed Placido Polanco, himself a second baseman by trade, for the hot corner.

Keep in mind that, with both Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre still on the market, it’s not like there are no slick-fielding third basemen available. Both of those guys are supposedly looking for a lot more than Polanco got, of course, but the Phillies didn’t exactly wait out the market.

I should note that if the Mets made the same move — a hypothetical, since they obviously don’t need a third baseman — I’d be killing Omar Minaya for it. Three years and $18 mil for a guy who doesn’t even play the position seems excessive, especially since he’s 34.

But since these are the Phillies — the big, bad Phillies, the team that always seems to beat up on my team — I’ll go ahead and assume they know something I don’t.

I’m just not quite sure what that could be.

An excuse to talk about Nolan Ryan

This odd piece about Texas Rangers’ ownership and front-office politics gives me an excuse to talk about Nolan Ryan.

Ryan will apparently be back as Rangers president next year, and I’m glad. The Rangers are brimming with young arms, and under Ryan’s leadership, the team has taken the emphasis off pitch counts and innings limits.

Interesting. Not necessarily good or bad, but interesting, for sure.

Pitchers, like all players, are huge investments these days, so it makes sense for teams to try their best to protect them. On the other hand, and as Ryan points out, pitchers seem to get hurt pretty frequently under strict pitch counts and innings limits.

My colleague Mike Salfino has been on a campaign to expose the various shortcomings of the so-called Verducci Effect for a while now, and he makes a lot of good points. So does David Gassko at the Hardball Times.

I would guess — and this isn’t really much of a leap — that some pitchers are more prone to innings- and pitch-related fatigue than others. But teams are cautious enough with pitchers that no one ever gets the chance to show he can be the next Nolan Ryan.

Nolan Ryan, then, will give his pitchers the chance to be the next Nolan Ryan. He’s the perfect guy to do it, too: A tough, old Texan who isn’t afraid of the criticism he will inevitably face if one of his prized young arms does get hurt.

I never loved Ryan when I was a kid and he was still pitching. My dad thought he was about the coolest guy in the world because Ryan was the last Major Leaguer older than he was. I thought he was a bit overrated, and he was never as good, in my head, as Tom Seaver must have been.

But what I failed to appreciate about Ryan then was the value inherent in his ridiculous durability, the same thing that allowed him to pitch effectively into his mid-40s. From when Ryan broke into the Mets’ rotation full-time in 1971 to his last full season in 1992, he averaged 226 innings. Over 21 seasons.

In that time, he started more than 25 games in every season but strike-shortened 1981. He started 30 or more in 16 seasons, and from 1972 to 1977 — arbitrary endpoints, for sure — he averaged 287 innings a year while leading the league in both strikeouts and walks in five of the six seasons.

That’s a lot of pitches.

Also, in June of 1974, he threw a 13-inning start against the Red Sox in which he struck out 19 and walked 10. In the same game, Luis Tiant threw 14 1/3 innings and lost. That’s gotta sting.

Also, one time Nolan Ryan kicked the living crap out of Robin Ventura. This is up there with my favorite things to happen on a baseball field, and has to go down in history as one of the greatest displays of old-man strength of all-time.

I love how nonchalant Ryan is when Ventura comes charging at him. I assume Ryan said something like, “You wanna dance?” in a good Clint Eastwood growl. Or, alternately, he just said “Texas!” every time he punched Ventura in the head, because that’s generally what I imagine Nolan Ryan saying whenever he does anything.