Category Archives: Words

Math rates poorly with the Nielsens

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I like to think that relative sanity from all sides has helped sports fans (particularly web-savvy sports fans) understand and embrace math to a solid degree. Like I said, there’s some grousing. There are plenty of “watch the game!” comments. But it’s nothing like on the political stage. The abuse Nate Silver has received this election cycle for having the temerity to average polls based on a previously successful regression model is astounding. This is pretty straightforward math. It’s actually quite similar to Hollinger’s Power Rankings. Hollinger takes efficiency differential (which is a more precise indication of team win-loss record) and adjusts for schedule strength (including home-road split) and emphasizes recent play. Silver’s Five Thirty Eight model averages the polls, adjusting for house effects and timing. Like I said, basic math.

Hollinger hears it from math-denying fans, but no columnists, analysts or talking heads rip him openly. Silver is getting challenged by one of the highest-rated political commentators on television. And many others. It’s all a bit crazy, especially when Silver plainly says his work produces probabilities of outcomes, not certainties. Are the anti-Silver commentators really that … for lack of a better word, dumb? (Note: this isn’t to say anything of those who seek to discredit the mechanics of Silver’s model, with the arguments that he overemphasizes state polls or that his house effects adjustments are off. This is about the math deniers that have popped up as the math has told a story that doesn’t agree with their partisan sensibilities.)

– Tom Ziller, SBNation.com.

Good reading from Ziller on the bizarre turn the political punditry has taken against Nate Silver’s probabilities this election cycle.

I avoid politics here, as you’ve likely realized. But if you’ve somehow missed all the backlash to Silver’s analysis this month, it’s worth investigating. Lots of silliness.

Taco Bell Tuesday

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Not much on the Taco Bell newswire this week, but a couple items of note.

Strange doings in Eugene: A vague sign inside a Starbucks in Eugene, Ore. has University of Oregon students excited. Here’s what the sign looks like:

And who could blame them for being amped about that? I mean, a 24-hour Taco Bell lounge! How sophisticated! They’re finally opening Club Chalupa.

The only problem is there’s no real evidence beyond the sign that it’s happening. An area Taco Bell representative said the chain has no plans to expand into the location and the town’s Planning and Development Department says there are no active permits at the location and no open applications.

Is this some sort of copycat stunt modeled after the hoax in Bethel, Alaska? A rogue Starbucks employee making idle threats to undercut the coffee shop’s business from the inside? A forthcoming, bell-themed 24-hour lounge unaffiliated with Taco Bell that will soon be sued for copyright infringement?

Needless to say, I will stay on this story as long as it keeps appearing in my Google News returns. My college’s campus featured a Taco Bell Express for my freshman year, but it later switched to a knock-off fast-food taco shop. I nearly transferred, but it turned out the new place served food suspiciously similar to Taco Bell’s.

Obama is trying to take your tacos!: This one comes via the OC Weekly’s ever-vigilant Taco Bell Crime of the Week series. Police in Dover, Ohio received a call about a man in a Barack Obama mask trying to steal bags of food from customers at the Taco Bell drive thru. This is either really lame political commentary or more incredibly cliched use of Presidential masks while committing crimes. We’ve all seen Point Break, bro, Why not rob Taco Bells dressed as Hellboy or Shrek or Kanye West?

Real-life friend Scott has an awesome Hamburglar getup that he’ll probably show you if you ask. Obviously that’s the right costume for showing up at drive-thrus and attempting to steal food. It might be especially funny to dress up like the Hamburglar and steal food at Taco Bell, because then people’d be all, “WTF?”

Manny Ramirez on the comeback trail

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Manny Ramirez is headed for the Dominican Republic to restart a baseball career that could continue in Japan, The Post has learned.

According to a person with knowledge of the situation, three Japanese teams want to see the 40-year-old Ramirez play in games for Las Aguilas in order to gauge if he is worth signing.

Ramirez is slated to leave Florida tomorrow and travel to his native Dominican where the winter league is under way.

– George A. King III, N.Y. Post.

In case you’ve forgotten, Manny Ramirez: a) bats right-handed, b) was an excellent hitter as recently as 2010, c) is sometimes willing to stand in an outfield corner while his team is on defense and d) is Manny Ramirez. I think you see where I’m going with this.

I’m mostly kidding. But I’m definitely rooting for the Mets to acquire Manny Ramirez just for the sheer spectacle of it all, from the day they sign him until the day it inevitably ends poorly.

Here is Manny Ramirez getting whacked in the face by his own dreads during Spring Training:

Dickey stuff

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Before and after exercising Dickey’s $5 million option for 2013 last week, it was natural for club brass to discuss how to maximize his value: Is he worth more to the Mets as a pitcher, or as a trade chip? The team is in desperate need of outfielders and catchers, have an abundance of young pitching, and believe they should deal from depth.

– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

I’ve discussed potential Dickey deals in this space, prompting a few people to ask why I want the Mets to trade the Dickster. To be clear: I don’t. What I want is for the Mets to have the wherewithal to sign Dickey to an extension and add a free agent or two and aim to contend in 2013.

But since I try my best to operate in reality where appropriate and because it doesn’t seem like the Mets will be throwing around big bucks this offseason, I have become progressively more open to the idea of them trading Dickey in a deal for a young position player.

The Mets can approach Dickey in any of three ways this winter. They can sign him to an extension, they can do nothing and enjoy one more year of his services at a discount rate, or they can try to trade him for young players.

Opting to sign him to an extension — rumored to be somewhere in the three-year, $45 million neighborhood — will mean paying a premium for a premium pitcher. Dickey was probably worth more than $15 million to the Mets in 2012, and he’s a knuckleballer who hasn’t yet suffered the effects of his advancing age. So there’s some chance Dickey could pitch well enough over the course of an extension to provide the club surplus value on top of what he’s earning.

But an extension also comes with significant risk: He is, after all, 38, and the Mets would be paying him at a rate he established with a career year in 2012. If he falters, he could prove a fine pitcher worth slightly less than the $15 million a year, or, worse, if he gets hurt he could be worth way less than $15 million a year. Either way, the salary would count against the Mets’ finite payroll, and represents money that could be spent elsewhere — for better or worse.

Doing nothing seems like the worst idea of the three, given the Mets’ current situation. Due to the new collective bargaining agreement, an acquiring team would not receive compensatory draft picks for Dickey if it traded for him during the season, which seems likely to diminish his value at the trade deadline. Holding on to him now in the hopes of a #YOLOrioles-style postseason run in 2013 could help fill seats in the early part of the season, but if it doesn’t pay off and/or Dickey does not repeat his 2012 performance, the Mets will have missed their opportunity to cash in on him when his value is highest.

The thought of him pitching elsewhere on Opening Day 2013 is tough to stomach, I know. But trading him — as Martino’s article suggests — might represent the best way to maximize the value of the commodities on the Mets’ roster. The deal needs to be right, of course. But think about it this way: Which is likely to provide more value to the Mets moving forward, Dickey signed to a three-year extension at the market rate (or near the market rate), or a package of young, cost-controlled players they could receive in a deal for a pitcher coming off a Cy Young-caliber season?

And think about the replacements in question. Without Dickey, the Mets’ rotation is not nearly as good as it is with Dickey. But it’s still reasonably deep, with Johan Santana, Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, a host of young guys with live arms and a group of solid Triple-A dudes deemed “Dillon Gee types.” Without bringing in outfielders, the Mets have only outfielder under contract — Mike Baxter — who posted an OPS above .730 at a level above Double-A in 2012.

What say you?

James McDonald and the mean thing about baseball

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Real-life friend Jake made a solid baseball-reference discovery this weekend.

Here’s Pirates righty James McDonald’s 2011: 171 innings pitched, 4.21 ERA.

In the first half of 2012, something seemed to change for McDonald. He threw 110 innings before the All-Star Break and yielded a stellar 2.37 ERA, earning some of the credit for the Pirates’ early success. Analysts chalked up the difference to increased confidence in and effectiveness from his slider. Finally, some said, James McDonald became a pitcher, not a thrower*.

In the second half of 2012, McDonald pitched 61 innings with a 7.52 ERA. Notably — tragically, hilariously — in his last outing of the year, McDonald allowed three earned runs without retiring a batter. With that, he kept his season innings total to 171 and lifted his ERA to 4.21 to finish off his 2012 with the exact same totals in both stats as he posted in 2011.

McDonald’s peripheral stats improved slightly, so it’s unfair to say he endured an identical season. But looking at the largest sample available for James McDonald’s 2012 shows a pitcher indisputably remarkably similar to the James McDonald of 2011.

I think sometimes baseball nerds like me get so excited about regressions to the mean that we’re too quick to dismiss fluctuations in performance and the narratives that come with them. Baseball players can tinker and adjust and change, and they exist at the whims of so many outside factors. Maybe there’s something better than pure randomness to explain why Jeff Francoeur seems to start hitting every time he joins a new club, and why he reverts to being Jeff Francoeur shortly thereafter. Maybe McDonald did turn the proverbial corner in the first half of 2012, only to then turn three more corners and wind up right back at the intersection of Thrower Boulevard and League-Average Innings-Eater Avenue like so many players before him.

Or maybe McDonald’s first half and the stories that came with it provide only more examples of baseball’s wild sample-size caprices deluding us once again. And that might be depressing or it might be redeeming, depending on your angle.

*- This is among my very least favorite baseball expressions. I don’t think it’s entirely meaningless, it’s just used way too frequently, and too often as a stand-in for “is throwing more offspeed pitches” or “is walking fewer batters.” Also, it suggests the “throwers” in question don’t have any idea what they’re doing and are just chucking it, which is ridiculous. There are plenty of people who can throw in the 90s who will never sniff a Major League mound.

Pressure caved to

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The Marathon has been an integral part of New York City’s life for 40 years and is an event tens of thousands of New Yorkers participate in and millions more watch. While holding the race would not require diverting resources from the recovery effort, it is clear that it has become the source of controversy and division. The marathon has always brought our city together and inspired us with stories of courage and determination. We would not want a cloud to hang over the race or its participants, and so we have decided to cancel it. We cannot allow a controversy over an athletic event – even one as meaningful as this – to distract attention away from all the critically important work that is being done to recover from the storm and get our city back on track. The New York Road Runners will have additional information in the days ahead for participants.

– Michael Bloomberg and NY Road Runners, press release.

So there’s that. Since it’s likely being canceled after many runners have already come to the city for the race, I imagine the hotel-room crunch won’t be entirely averted.

My plans to not run a marathon continue unimpeded.

Friday Q&A, pt. 3: Sandwich stuff

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https://twitter.com/parentsbasement/status/264370200894373888

Yes. You’d inevitably end up there anyway, but if by some strange chance you would have skipped it, go to Cafe Du Monde and get beignets. They’re fried dough that for some reason you’re allowed to eat for breakfast. They might very well be my choice for my last meal on Earth.

It’s really not hard to find great food in New Orleans. I’d say to avoid the most touristy parts, but I had a delicious chicken-fried steak at some bar a block off Bourbon St. in the middle of the damn night once. If you’re staying someplace nearby — and a lot of the hotels downtown are pretty close — it’s worth checking out Mother’s for a Ferdi Special sandwich. There’ll be a hell of a line, but the few times I’ve been there it’s been a pretty good scene.

https://twitter.com/sparbz/status/264372350768803840

A good one to check out is the Turducken sandwich at Luscious Foods in Park Slope. It’s a seasonal thing and I can’t say for certain they’re selling it this year, but it’s sort of a souped-up version of the traditional Thanksgiving sandwich. I meant to write it up last year around this time, but I ate it at my friends’ bar across the street and the dim lighting prevented me from taking a passable photo. If I remember correctly, they incorporate cornbread stuffing and cranberry mayo.

Also, I might as well put in a plug for people who frequently give me free drinks: If you’re at Luscious Foods, you should probably cross the street and eat it with a drink at Uncle Barry’s.

https://twitter.com/seanadekunle/status/264375850118565891

But that’s a lot of pressure! I think the Buffalo chicken sandwich might be slightly better in concept than it usually is in execution. Alternately, maybe when I’m in the mood for Buffalo-stuff I just order wings and don’t sample enough good Buffalo chicken sandwiches.

The first one that jumps out at me is actually a wrap, also in my old neighborhood in Brooklyn, at Wing Wagon on Flatbush Ave. near 7th. Man, do I love Wing Wagon. After the deli where I worked, it’s got to be the non-chain place where I’ve had the most total food in my life.

I don’t know why I sometimes ordered the wrap there, considering how much I enjoyed their wings, but I suspect it had something to do with the wrap’s inexpensiveness and its ability to convince me it was a healthier alternative to wings (even though I always still got it with fried chicken inside). It’s good though. Very spicy.

Beyond that, I don’t know. I’m very open to suggestions here. Anybody? What’s the best Buffalo chicken sandwich in New York City?

Well obviously it depends on the sandwich. If all the ingredients are fresh, though, and it’s not a sandwich that by design needs to be served hot, I generally prefer it cold. If it’s a variety of cold cuts and cheese on a Kaiser roll, for example, heating any part of it up seems unnecessary. They’re not called hot cuts, or something.

Friday Q&A, pt. 2: Randos

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https://twitter.com/CatsmeatP_P/status/264374406149713920

A lot. Man, I hate running. I don’t hate cardio-vascular exercise so much, though I hardly do enough of it. I can get on the elliptical for an hour or ride 20 miles on my bike and actually enjoy it. And I love walking. But the idea of running even a mile is so distasteful to me that I can’t imagine enduring 26.2 of them without some life-changing reward.

I suspect the issue is two-fold. For one thing, I played football for 10 years and I am and always have been a massive wiseass. And when you’re a massive wiseass to football coaches, you are punished by being forced to run laps. Since my formative years, running has always felt like a punishment or at the very least like a chore.

Second, I’m awful at it. I’m so slow, and when you run as poorly as I do, it feels awkward and terrible. In high school I ran enough to make myself passable for football purposes, but now that I never have much reason to run, I get progressively worse at it every year. I still maintain other physical strengths and skills, so I’m cool with it. But in a fight-or-flight scenario, I’m definitely fighting.

So, offhand, I’d say it’d probably take the promise of about $25,000 to convince me to train for and complete a marathon. But if for some stupid reason anybody’s willing to offer up that much, I might very well up my rate or guilt you into giving it to charity.

https://twitter.com/dpecs/status/264387739905044480

I discuss this a lot. Everyone says the Chrysler Building and some people even suggest the Chrysler Building is underrated, but I think the Chrysler Building is adequately rated. If New York City were a chessboard, the Chrysler Building would be the queen. It’s easily the prettiest of the very tall buildings, and it is without a doubt very shiny and awesome. Plus, it’s a useful landmark for anyone looking for Grand Central Station and it doesn’t get enough credit for its use of automobile-inspired gargoyles.

But for me, it’s the king, baby, the king. Empire State Building or GTFO. And you might think that’s cliched, except no one ever says the Empire State Building even though it’s clearly the best building. Look at that thing! That’s what massive buildings should look like. None of this asymmetrical, post-modern b.s. for the most identifiable building in the center of the biggest city in the country, just towering, tapering art-deco glory. It’s monumental.

Even the name is perfect: Empire State Building. That’s f-ing right. What’s the name of the tallest building in Chicago? The Willis Tower? What the hell is that?

The only disappointing thing about the Empire State Building is that its mast was initially (supposedly) intended to be a dirigible docking station, which never happened. If it did, this blog wouldn’t exist, as I’d long since have been fired for spending all of my time at my desk watching the airships come and go.

Also, if you live here and you haven’t been up to the Empire State Building’s observation deck, you should probably get on that. It’s expensive and touristy, obviously, but it’s exciting as anything.

Other buildings in New York City that I like include the Woolworth Building and the irrepressibly creepy American Radiator Building. And I don’t typically have much patience for Frank Gehry but I do really like the IAC Building in Chelsea.

https://twitter.com/Ceetar/status/264371157984215041

Let’s see: No, maybe, definitely, and no. And thanks. But our living room’s tight to begin with and it could be crowded right now due to some displaced family, so you’d probably have to sit on our Shea Stadium seats. That doesn’t sound terrible, but they’re not anchored down, so if you lean forward they topple over and dump you out on the floor. Happens all the time. Still funny when it does.

https://twitter.com/TommBauer/status/264370108917510144
A long time. There might still be some in the crevices of my ear. And I’ve got Tobias Funke stuff happening in my apartment: I keep finding yellow handprints in random places.

Friday Q&A, pt. 1: Mets stuff

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https://twitter.com/BlueChill1123/status/264371022017466369
Well that’s the reported-to-be-around $125 million question, no? I’ll say that if I had to bet on it now, I’d guess the Mets do re-sign Wright, and that it’s more likely they overpay him then send him packing. But obviously they’ve got to have a limit, and for all we know Wright and his agents will absolutely demand some sum the Mets absolutely cannot afford, forcing their hand.

The best-case scenario for a Wright trade would be something like the Rockies’ end of the Matt Holliday deal a few years ago. For Holliday — with one year remaining on his contract — Colorado received Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez. Smith never amounted to much for the Rockies, but Street — already established and well-compensated at the time of the deal — pitched well there and Gonzalez emerged as a franchise cornerstone.

It’s hard to count on any prospect panning out as well as Gonzalez has, which is why it seems silly to argue for trading Wright. Still, if it comes to that, the Mets need to get back a young player of that ilk: Someone who has already performed well in the high Minors and doesn’t appear far from becoming a Major League regular, with the potential to become a very good to great Major League regular.

Due the inexpensive terms of Dickey’s 2013 option, he might net even more than Wright in a trade. If the Mets were to deal him, I’d hope they could bring back an immediate Major League contributor with some upside and at least one more potential Major League contributor.

https://twitter.com/whywhywhy50/status/264374729325047808

Very slim. We love Endy here, but for as desperately as the Mets need outfielders, they don’t really need outfielders that do the things Endy does at this point in his career. Guys who field pretty well and bat left-handed they’ve got.

https://twitter.com/TomHoeg/status/264371865206784000

Wait, an elephant learned to speak? Like, with words? How did I miss this?

The Orioles’ playoff run this year should stand as evidence forever that trying to predict baseball is futile. So… I don’t know, 2014. Why not?

T-shirt cannon technology finally used to launch tacos

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Huge news out of Texas, courtesy real-life friend Ron:

The Torchy’s Tacos taco cannon stands proudly on all-terrain wheels. It is coated in jet black paint, with its long barrel pointing high towards the sky. The cannon’s controller shoots off three tacos in rapid succession. The explosion excites cheers and claps from people hoping to catch one of the tacos. One by one each taco is grabbed, unwrapped and eaten. The smell of drizzled cheese, sizzled chilies and grilled chicken invade the nostrils of its catcher….

“I seriously envisioned a warlike cannon shooting tacos at people,” biology senior Waytao Shing said.

Shing, who attended the FFF Aqua Olympics, an event catered to getting FFF patrons excited for the festival, was surprised to see what the cannon really was: a 12-chambered T-shirt cannon, redesigned to project delectable tacos.

About time, if you ask me. You may have seen similar cannons at basketball games. I know the Georgetown cheerleaders have one. They are awesome, but until now they have been pathetically devoid of taco ammunition. Check this sucker out:

Since the revelation at a Minor League game somewhere that hot dogs wrapped in foil with packets of mustard and ketchup were apparently the same gauge as rolled-up t-shirts, I’ve been quietly campaigning for Mr. Met to put his own gun to better use.

Now that tacos are in play — especially considering how good the Citi Field tacos are — it’s about time Mr. Met up his game. I already have more t-shirts than I need and there’s almost no chance anything fired at me from a hundred yards away will prove worthy of my t-shirt rotation. But I could pretty much always use a taco.